Premier League end of season betting: Three lesser-known storylines to wager on

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With the 2024-25 Premier League season winding down, the title won, and the relegation scrap done and dusted, bettors are searching for meaningful football games to watch and engage with. We’ve covered the race for the top five extensively here at The Athletic, but outside of that, what is there?

This is an alternative look at the final four weeks of the league campaign, searching for storylines and narratives that could impact betting markets and provide opportunities for clever wagers.

Distracted by the glitz and glamour of Europe

Four Premier League clubs made it to European semi-finals this season: Arsenal in the Champions League, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United in the Europa League, and Chelsea in the Conference League.

That’s four clubs who are, to varying degrees, distracted from league football. We say “varying” because it’s arguable the league is more important to Chelsea than the Conference League. But for the other three, continental competition is everything to them right now.

That creates three (perhaps four) opportunities in the market, as it’s very likely that these teams will send out heavily rotated teams for this weekend’s action, resting their key men ahead of the second legs next week.

It’s particularly vital that Arsenal and Spurs do this. For the Gunners, it’s about levelling the playing field, as their opponents, Paris Saint-Germain, have already won Ligue 1 and won’t need to use their first-team against Strasbourg on Saturday. Meanwhile for the Lilywhites, it’s about staying as fresh as possible against a Bodø/Glimt team who are only four games into their domestic season, so they’ll have a natural fitness advantage.

The bookmakers are trying to anticipate this. Take Arsenal, for example, whose chances of beating AFC Bournemouth have drifted from roughly 70 per cent to around 45 per cent. That’s reflective of the tough task awaiting them in Paris next Wednesday, which Mikel Arteta will surely prioritise in his team selections.

Brentford’s odds to beat Man Utd have shrunk through the week too, as have West Ham’s to beat Spurs at home – but the Hammers, in particular, still look good enough value to wager on, at a shade better than evens.

Applying this knowledge, we know the Europa League final is on May 21, and should Spurs and/or Man Utd get there, they’ll be resting players ahead of it. Chelsea could play a Conference League final on May 28 – will they be able to rest players three days before against Nottingham Forest? And will Arsenal play a full-strength team away to Southampton on the final day if they have a Champions League final on the horizon? It’s doubtful, and therefore, it creates an opportunity for bettors.

The fight to avoid – or stop – the slide into history

On Saturday, 19th in the league hosts 20th in what is certain to be a truly shocking game to watch. Leicester City have lost nine straight games at home without scoring a goal, setting a new, unwanted Football League record in the process. Southampton have just 11 points from 34 games, which equals Derby County’s haul from 2007-08, the worst league campaign on record.

Both teams will be hell-bent on scoring and/or earning points this weekend to stop their respective slides into history – and they’ll understandably see each other as their best remaining opportunity to achieve that.

So let’s say, for example, Leicester score their first league goal at the King Power Stadium since December 8 and don’t lose. Their historic run will halt, but the Saints would be left with three more opportunities to save themselves from humiliation. Their remaining fixtures – Manchester City, Everton and Arsenal – are not easy, and the market will expect them to lose all three.

But football is an emotional, prideful sport. Southampton’s players will run through brick walls to avoid being the joint-worst side in league history. They become good value to bet on to draw, or as a double chance, because they have everything to strive for, whereas their opponents perhaps won’t.

The idea that the Saints could beat Arsenal on the final day is ridiculous on paper. But what if Simon Rusk’s men need a point to avoid history while the Gunners have their eyes set on European glory?

Goodbye Goodison

Everton have nothing to play for, as they’re safe from relegation and miles off the fight for Europe. Typically, in this scenario, the final four games would serve to trial new concepts ahead of next season or sort through the squad to see who you want to keep around.

But for the Toffees, there’s an extra, unique element in play: Saying goodbye to their beloved Goodison Park the right way (and by right, we mean by winning). They have just two fixtures left at their iconic, creaking stadium, and no fan will want to wave farewell to it in drab fashion.

Their final two home games come against Ipswich Town and Southampton. Both are confirmed as relegated, with the former simply drifting to the end of the campaign. With the fans roaring, the sun shining, and zero jeopardy at play, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Everton rack up the goals – something the markets haven’t yet anticipated.

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Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of David Moyes: Richard Heathcote / Getty Images)

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