The MLB starting pitchers getting squeezed most by this season’s smaller strike zone

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The strike zone is being enforced slightly differently this year, and it’s the smallest it’s ever been. But that doesn’t mean every pitcher is suffering equally from the tighter, perhaps more by-the-book zone. Some are getting it worse — and may continue to have a hard time due to how they pitch.

Pitches taken inside the strike zone used to be called balls almost a quarter of the time at the beginning of the pitch-tracking era, and that number has been cut in half at least. But, because umpires are now being judged by a tighter buffer zone, the strike zone has shrunk. Throughout this season, there will be a few thousand fewer strikes because of how the umpires are judged.

In the context of the history of the strike zone in the era of pitch tracking, considering that called strikes outside the zone are down to their lowest point, you could argue that this is the most by-the-book the zone has been. It doesn’t feel that way to all pitchers, though, as they navigate this new season and the intricacies of this season’s strike zone.

Here are the 20 starting pitchers who’ve seen the most called balls inside the zone as a percentage of all pitches inside the zone.

Just eyeballing the list, it seems like there are a lot of sinkers, big breaking balls, and generally low-ball pitchers on here, even if Tyler Glasnow throws his fastball up in the zone. Just off the list are Michael King and Jeffrey Springs, two guys with big sweepers who join a few names on this list with that characteristic, as well as the sinker usage. There might be something to this.

Here’s where the called balls in the strike zone live this year according to Baseball Savant. As the news story showed, the corners are being tightened.

Here’s where are 20 most squeezed starting pitchers like to throw the ball.

That might look like a zone map for most starting pitchers, although that outside edge to righties stands out. That’s where these pitchers like to throw the ball the most — almost twice as much as any other part of the zone — and it’s also one of the spots where the zone is tightening the most.

How does that leave our plucky 20? Doomed to continue not getting calls? Or due for a regression to the mean?

Let’s come at this from another angle. Let’s look at all pitchers who throw to those bottom corners the most. Take the top 20 of that list and see what their percentage of balls called in the zone is. Aha. Even though some of them — like Andre Pallante, Framber Valdez, Pablo López, Bryce Elder and Aaron Nola — are running called-ball rates in the zone that are above league average, the group has an 11.8 percent called-ball rate in the zone that doesn’t differ much from the league rate.

So it’s probably safe to say that some of these pitchers are in for better days as the season goes on and the strike zone giveth what it hath taken away. Here’s the group, sorted by their walk rate over at FanGraphs for your perusal. Let’s pull three pitchers out of the group for a little closer look.

Gavin Williams, Guardians

It’s been an uneven season thus far for Williams, who looked gangbusters in spring training and seemed to be poised for success. His velocity is up, his swinging-strike rate is up and his strikeout rate is above-average, so there are some positives. He was excited about a cutter he re-debuted against the Yankees that led to one of his better starts of the season, but then he couldn’t replicate that success against the Twins.

But there’s that walk rate, up from last year, and his home run rate as well. The latter is mostly noise, but together, both rates paint a picture of flagging command … or do they? He’s had six more taken strikes called balls than the average pitcher would’ve in the same situations, and he’s spent 31 percent of his pitches behind in the count, compared to 25 percent last year. Two of his five home runs were given up behind in the count, and if you erase those, he would have a normal home run rate.

That’s not to say he can’t tighten anything up. If you look at his curveball heat map from last year (left) versus this year (right), you can see that the curveball command needs to improve, as Location+ suggests.

That’s his best pitch by Stuff+ and results, so he should throw it in the zone more. Play that off the cutter and the four-seam and the sweeper against righties, and he still has what it takes to have a great season. He’s got to be a hold in all formats for the time being as he figures it out.

Ryan Pepiot, Rays

Generally, George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa is playing hitter-friendly. But there’s still a difference between nighttime and daytime, mostly because the wind is erratic and the stadium isn’t as big as major-league stadiums, so it doesn’t shield the playing field from the wind as well. We can already see a pretty wicked day/night split — at night, the overall one-year park factor for The Boss is basically neutral, though it inflates homers more than all but eight parks do during the day, with a 119 park factor for homers. During the day, it becomes the ninth-friendliest overall and the eighth-friendliest to home runs with a 130 park factor for homers.

Trent Grisham wastes no time getting the @Yankees on the board! pic.twitter.com/9YKgWXu5Zc

— MLB (@MLB) April 20, 2025

This lines up with what Michael Rosen found about the wind and the erratic nature of The Boss, so maybe it’s to be expected even if one-year park factors are full of noise. But maybe there’s some good news hidden in those factors for Pepiot, who is still showing good stuff and velocity, along with strong strikeout and walk rates, but is suffering from homer-itis. Pepiot has only had one start on the road, so the schedule should even up for him, and then there’s some evidence that the wind will blow in even at The Boss later in the season, from Rosen’s piece.

“In April, the wind is very likely to blow out in the afternoon (64% of the time over my 10-year sample), while it’s more of a mixed bag in the evenings, blowing out 42% of the time and blowing in 23% of the time,” Rosen wrote. “But as the fall comes around, those frequencies change. By September — and potentially even October — the park will start to play much more like a pitcher’s park.”

What does this have to do with his called strikes in the zone? Maybe not much, but this, combined with the fact that he could see more called strikes going forward, suggests that he is a strong buy-low while it’s still possible.

Osvaldo Bido, Athletics

Yes, Osvaldo Bido is getting fewer strike calls than he should. But he also doesn’t have great command. He had some of the worst command in baseball last year, when sorted by Location+. Hard to gin up a good relationship with the umpire when you don’t have a good relationship with the strike zone. His Location+ numbers are a little better this year, but still not great, and he pitches in the second-toughest park in the league. If your fantasy setup is super deep and rewards a pitcher you can use maybe 10 weeks of the year when he’s away from home against lesser offenses … he still has a little value. Otherwise, he’ll be tough to predict with this zone and his command.

(Photo of Gavin Williams: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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