The outlook for the Kentucky Derby has changed significantly in recent days.
Early weather forecasts called for little to no precipitation on the first Saturday in May. Those predictions were off. It has been raining in Louisville since Friday afternoon, and the track will almost certainly be labeled sloppy or muddy for the race, which is scheduled to go off at 6:57 p.m.
A pair of significant late scratches also altered the Derby field.
The top two finishers from the Wood Memorial, Rodriguez and Grande, were withdrawn due to minor injuries. That left a field of 19, one shy of the maximum, and allowed a prime contender to draw into the race. Baeza, the runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby, came off the also-eligible list and joined the field.
Here’s where things haven’t changed — Journalism, the Santa Anita Derby winner, remains a strong and deserving favorite. Journalism’s last two speed figures are better than any other entrant has posted. Progeny of his sire, Curlin, have an impressive 18% strike rate on wet tracks.
Moreover, the race should set up in Journalism’s favor. Citizen Bull and East Avenue are likely to set a strong pace, and Journalism should be able to pounce as the field approaches the stretch.
Many of the other contenders aren’t as good as they look on paper. Sandman, Burnham Square and Tiztastic are closers who won major preps with the aid of wicked paces. Yet they didn’t post figures that measure up to Journalism’s two 3-year-old starts.
The horse who drew into the race, Baeza, could be Journalism’s main threat and will offer much better value. He’ll be wide, which could cost him, but he lost to Journalism by less than a length in California. Baeza’s dam, Puca, produced 2023 Derby winner Mage.
Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty is the likely second choice and hasn’t posted a figure that would threaten the two top contenders. However, he looks like a colt who could peak today. Sovereignty unleashed an explosive late kick while winning a 2-year-old stakes race at Churchill Downs and possesses a wet track pedigree.
Final Gambit and Luxor Cafe are X-factors — probably not good enough to win but could rally for a share. Final Gambit unleashed a strong late kick while winning a stakes race on a synthetic track. Luxor Cafe is the top 3-year-old from Japan and was sired by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.
Top three:
Journalism
Baeza
Sovereignty
Betting strategy: Play trifectas keying Journalism and Baeza on top; Journalism, Baeza and Sovereignty in the second spot; and the top three plus Final Gambit, Luxor Cafe and Burnham Square in the third spot.
Best bet: Journalism-Baeza exacta box.
This news was originally published on this post .
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