2025 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, post positions, date: Surprising picks by horse racing insider

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Steve Asmussen and Mark Casse are two of the most successful horse racing trainers in North America, but the two share more in common than just their success entering the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Asmussen and Casse hold the distinction of being the two 2025 Kentucky Derby trainers with the most appearances in the Run for the Roses without a win. However, both will have legitimate chances to right that wrong on Saturday at Churchill Downs with strong 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders. Asmussen (0-for26) has two 2025 Kentucky Derby horses qualified, Publisher and Tiztastic (both sired by Kentucky Derby winners) listed at 20-1.

Casse (0-for-10) has one entrant in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, Sandman, the Arkansas Derby winner and third favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds at 6-1 behind Journalism (3-1) and Sovereignty (5-1). With the Kentucky Derby annually featuring the largest field in North American racing, you’ll want to see what Santa Anita-based racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, considering the success she’s had handicapping this race.

In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.

She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young’s win in the $20 million Saudi Cup, Journalism’s win in the San Felipe Stakes and Sandman’s win in the Arkansas Derby this year. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel RacingTwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.

Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is completely fading Sandman, even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top favorites. Sandman features plenty of closing speed, which was on full display in his victory at the Arkansas Derby. However, closers tend to be dependent on a fast pace up front and generally lose ground on the far turn at Churchill Downs.

That was evident when Sandman raced twice at Churchill Downs in the fall, finishing no better than third in the Iroquois Stakes or Street Sense. This Mark Casse-trained colt has experienced connections, but neither Casse (10 starters) nor jockey Jose Ortiz (nine) has ever prevailed at the Kentucky Derby. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another curveball: Yu is high on Luxor Cade , even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. No Japanese horse has won the Kentucky Derby, but Forever Young finished third in a photo finish last year. Luxor Cafe, a Kentucky-bred son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, is Japan’s best hope this year.

Luxor Cafe has spent his entire six-race career in Japan, winning four straight races to clinch his spot in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. His last start was his most impressive, as he stalked the pace before using a late burst to earn a five-length victory in the Fukuryu Stakes on March 29. Yu notes that Luxor Cafe’s connections “have stated that he had plenty left in the tank” following that impressive win, and his style fits this race. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu is high on a double-digit longshot who has been getting over the Churchill Downs surface “perfectly” this week. She is including this horse in her 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2025 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out. 

2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions

2025 Kentucky Derby horse previews

1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 10 Grande | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza

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