2025 NHL playoff preview: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers

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By Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille, and Shayna Goldman

The Toronto Maple Leafs, by virtue of preventing their first-round slide against the Ottawa Senators from turning into a full-on collapse, cleared one hurdle.

Now, they’re faced with another — and it’s much, much taller than the last. Waiting for them in the second round are the Florida Panthers, who immediately snapped back into defending-champ mode against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Two years ago, also in the second round, the Panthers took out Toronto in five games. Things have changed on both sides. It’s time to see just how much.

The odds

The Panthers are favored — no shock there. What may be a bit confusing is the margin, one that calls for a tighter series than many likely anticipated between the defending champions and a team that struggles to control play.

While the model likes the Leafs a lot more than their expected goal rate thanks to their strong goaltending, team defense and having four offensive stars (all things Florida can match, mind you), the big thing here is home ice advantage.

Home teams won a lot more than usual this season (56 percent compared to 53 percent the last three years) and that trend carried over to the playoffs where the home side has a staggering 29-15 record. Toronto’s best chance in this series comes from taking care of business at home where the Leafs were 27-13-1 during the season, while the Panthers were 20-19-2 on the road. If home ice was flipped, Florida’s chances would rise to 59 percent.

The Panthers are the better team, but Toronto’s ability to ‘win ugly’ under Craig Berube could make things tougher than it seems at first glance for Florida.

The numbers

A plus-eight Net Rating separates the Panthers and Maple Leafs, but there are some differences in the process to get to that point.

At five-on-five, the Panthers have more oomph below the surface. Florida was one of the best regular-season teams in the league for a reason; they generated a ton of quality offense and were stingy in their own end. The Leafs, after changing how they play this year, created less offense than the Panthers but converted on a higher clip of their chances. Toronto’s goaltending also gave them stronger results on the other end of the ice, even though their expected goal suppression wasn’t as stout.

The Leafs amped up their defense against the Senators, but containing Florida is a different challenge. The Panthers’ defense was tight and took away the Lightning’s space. If Toronto is going to cut through that, the team will have to pick up the pace from Round 1.

The Panthers have more substance to their five-on-five offense, but the Leafs have more on the power play. Toronto’s five-forward power play unit was dynamic down the stretch and into Round 1. But the Panthers’ penalty kill was a major strength in the regular season and lights out in Round 1.  That brings their Defensive Rating up to a plus-30, which just edges out Toronto. But the Maple Leafs’ penalty kill is no pushover, either. If they can contain Florida’s power play, it could neutralize the special teams battle and put extra emphasis on five-on-five play.

The big question

Can Auston Matthews be Auston Matthews?

It’s tough to imagine Game 6 against the Senators getting off to a better start for the Leafs — or for Auston Matthews. A power-play goal near the end of the first period lowered the temperature for Toronto; having to dig their way out of an early deficit after dropping two straight games would have been … less than ideal.

And to be sure, the Leafs would’ve taken that first goal from anyone. The fact that it was Matthews, though, had to help. He’d been fine in the series until that point, especially in the first three games, but not nearly at his best. The way he scored, on a gentle wrist shot that looked more like a pass than anything else, was ironic. He put the puck on net, but a prime opportunity, it was not.

We’ll see whether that opens the floodgates. Until that point, he was playing the Senators to results similar to what we saw from him in the regular season: plenty of expected goals (about three), and not a ton of actual goals (one in Game 3).

Is that a huge gap? Not for the average NHL player — but Matthews, as we know, is far from an average NHL player. In 629 regular-season games, he has 401 regular-season goals, about 80 more than expected. So it goes when you have elite finishing ability. Matthews didn’t flash that against Ottawa, though, and he hadn’t flashed it in the regular season: he had 34 goals compared to about 40 expected, the first time in his career that the former didn’t exceed the latter and coming in particularly stark contrast to 2023-24 (69 actual vs. 50 expected).

In other words, when it comes to Matthews’ production, we’re witnessing him at his floor. That floor: a 95-point pace with dominant five-on-five play. Not bad.

The question is whether “not bad” will be good enough to get Toronto past a team featuring two Selke finalists on its top line. Probably not. Matthews doesn’t just need to create five-on-five chances in this series; he needs to capitalize on them. His track record against Aleksander Barkov specifically over the last three regular seasons is strong. When both were on the ice, the Leafs outscored the Panthers 5-1 and controlled 60 percent of the expected goals.

Their playoff series in 2023, though, was almost a literal draw: neither team scored in the 38:35 Barkov and Matthews were on the ice together, and the expected goal share was 50/50. Florida, of course, won that series going away. Sam Reinhart has also grown since that series as both a goal-scorer and a defensive player. If by the end of the series, we’re talking once again about both teams’ top lines canceling each other out, it probably won’t be good news for the Leafs. Florida’s forward depth is too good, making it more necessary than ever that Matthews is playing (and producing) at his standard level of greatness.

The X-factor

Is Seth Jones finally showing he can be The Guy?

When Florida, flush with money to spend after Matthew Tkachuk’s groin injury at the 4 Nations Face-Off, acquired Seth Jones from the Blackhawks, our overriding sentiment was, “Good move! Now he plays on a second pair, where he belongs.” Aaron Ekblad’s 20-game PED suspension threw a wrench in the works, though, pushing Jones back up the lineup for the last chunk of the regular season. The results weren’t great; Florida’s numbers with him on the ice at five-on-five fell across the board, and they were outscored 13-9.

The first round, though, acted as some degree of validation. With Ekblad around for a portion of it — between suspensions, at least — to handle a chunk of the toughest minutes alongside Gustav Forsling, Jones led the team in average ice time (25:41) and crushed his time at five-on-five. Florida won his minutes 4-0 with an expected goal rate of about 55 percent. Jones threw in a Game 4 winning goal for good measure and blocked a bunch of shots, too, generally looking the part of a playoff-ready defenseman.

Getting that sort of production from their second pair (assuming Eblad doesn’t get suspended again) would be huge for the Panthers. That’s the guy Florida needs — not the guy Jones was forced to be with Chicago.

The rosters

On paper, there are a lot of similarities between these two clubs and how they’re built. Elite firepower, stingy defense, and all-world goaltending to tie a nice bow on it.

Up front, it’s the elite trifecta of Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander going head-to-head against Barkov, Reinhart, and Tkachuk — a virtual draw by Net Rating. Between these six players, Toronto and Florida have some of the absolute best players in the world going head-to-head.

Matthews and Marner have the offensive edge against Barkov and Reinhart, but the latter are stronger defensively. Matthews and Marner are certainly strong defensively in their own right, just not to the level of Florida’s Selke finalist duo. This is a true heavyweight tilt and it wouldn’t be a shock to see both coaches opt for power vs. power in this series. May the best duo win.

Those elite two-way duos allow Nylander and Tkachuk to thrive in secondary matchups — and come up clutch when it counts. Both Nylander and Tkachuk thrive in the big moments and that showed in the opening round. Nylander led the Leafs with nine points in six games including three in Game 6, while Tkachuk dominated Game 1 with three points of his own.

Where the Leafs could have an edge is in the likelihood that Tkachuk isn’t quite 100 percent. He averaged just 14 minutes of ice-time against Tampa Bay and was ninth on Florida’s forward depth chart. He was still hyper-efficient in those minutes, but may be less of a factor in a tighter-checking series.

With John Tavares and Matthew Knies rounding out the top six, the Leafs also have more secondary weapons after their big three relative to the Panthers. That extra firepower was especially present on the team’s five-man power play which was scintillating against Ottawa. As good as Carter Verhaeghe and Brad Marchand are, they don’t quite move the needle like Tavares and Knies.

Florida makes up for that edge on the backend with the presence of Forsling, the true No. 1 defenseman that Toronto lacks. Chris Tanev is arguably a better defender, but Forsling doesn’t sacrifice any offense to get to a similarly elite height without the puck. He provides a boost to the team’s firepower, whereas Tanev struggles to help create offense in-zone. That’s not his job, but when he spends so much time with Toronto’s top line, his lack of offensive gifts does play a role in the team’s top forwards lacking their usual pop. That’s not an issue for Florida, who not only have Forsling, but also Ekblad and Jones to bolster the attack.

A lack of offense from the back-end is a problem in general for the Leafs where only Morgan Rielly can be dependably relied on for it. The middle of Toronto’s blue line is the strongest it’s ever been and matches up fine with Florida’s — but the lack of a true two-way No. 1 defenseman is apparent here. This group should be able to handle Florida’s fierce forecheck better than before, but it comes at a cost with the puck.

Toronto’s goaltending could make up for that if the regular season gap between Anthony Stolarz and Sergei Bobrovsky persists. But Bobrovsky’s championship pedigree probably makes him the better bet — numbers be damned.

On balance, the two teams come out fairly equal looking at the top five forwards and top four defensemen — especially with the goaltending edge shown here for Toronto being highly debatable. Toronto wins some individual battles and Florida wins some others. The end result is a draw.

Where Florida’s edge lies is in its depth, especially up front. Tkachuk isn’t quite 100 percent? No problem — the team’s “third” line of Anton Lundell, Eetu Luostarinen and Marchand were more than ready to dominate. All three had five points in five games and tilted the ice heavily in the Panthers’ favor. The Panthers also have Sam Bennett and Evan Rodrigues next to Tkachuk, with the former being a real playoff difference-maker and the latter being a strong defensive player.

That’s an incredibly deep top nine with several guys who truly move the needle at both ends of the ice. That’s something the Leafs simply do not have an answer for where there’s a massive drop-off after Knies in forward talent. Bobby McMann struggling over the last couple of months only adds to that.

There’s no reliable secondary source of offense. In Toronto, The Core Five did their part in the first round, but the team had a hard time finding a fit next to Tavares and Nylander, and any line combination with Max Domi was a defensive terror. Domi pitched in for some big moments, but he also got dominated at five-on-five to the tune of a 37 percent xG rate. The team’s checking line, anchored by Scott Laughton, was a pleasant surprise and did a great job of making sure nothing happened, but that’s a double-edged sword that puts more offensive strain on the big guns.

Against Ottawa, that was a one-sided matchup which Toronto’s best players were able to thrive in.

Against Florida, it’ll be a different story. Those stars will have an equal counterpart on the other side. If Toronto’s top guys aren’t better, it falls to the depth to pick up the pieces. In this series in particular, that’s a huge concern and puts the Panthers on a likely path to their third straight conference final.

The key matchup

Anthony Stolarz vs. Sergei Bobrovsky

Stolarz put up sparkling numbers in Florida last year, with 21.7 goals saved above expected in 27 games, which technically beat Bobrovsky’s 15.8 in 58 games. But once the playoffs rolled around, that didn’t matter. Bobrovsky was The Guy for the Panthers on their way to a Stanley Cup.

With the Leafs, Stolarz got the chance to prove that he could be Their Guy. He was an ace in the regular season for the second straight year, and that’s why the model gives him the edge here. Only Connor Hellebuyck has saved more goals above expected than Stolarz over the past two seasons. But thriving in the regular season doesn’t always translate to the playoffs — Bobrovksy had to learn that the hard way. Over the last two seasons, Playoff Bob has taken on a new meaning; he is the star the Panthers need when the pressure rises.

Stolarz has to prove he can match that, especially in a high-volume starter’s role he’s unfamiliar with. Four quality starts in a six-game series against Ottawa is a good start, but this matchup against his former teammates is the test.

The bottom line

Does anyone “Want Florida” this spring? They shouldn’t after seeing how dangerous the reigning champs are at full strength.

The Panthers know what it takes this time of year, which is why they won the East the last two seasons. The Leafs haven’t made it to Round 3 in 23 years, and it will be a grind to change that against Florida.

References

How these projections work

Understanding projection uncertainty 

Resources

Evolving Hockey

Natural Stat Trick

Hockey Reference

NHL

All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder

(Top photo of Auston Matthews, Sam Bennett and Gustav Forsling: John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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