Times have changed regarding to how often a horse should run prior to the Kentucky Derby after the 1974 winner, Cannonade, competed an astounding 21 times before his victory. Entering the 2025 Kentucky Derby, the last 10 champions have averaged 5.2 starts, and none of them had more than seven races total. Four 2025 Kentucky Derby horses have more than seven starts, including Sandman, who is 6-1 in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. Should that affect how you construct your horse racing bets or 2025 Kentucky Derby bets? Only Journalism (3-1) and Sovereignty (5-1) have shorter 2025 Kentucky Derby odds than Sandman.
Journalism and Sovereignty have five starts apiece, putting them at the average of the last decade’s Kentucky Derby winners. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby. Anyone who has followed him on betting apps like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could have been way up.
For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman (6-1), even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites. Trainer Mark Casse and jockey Jose Ortiz are widely regarded as two of the best in the business, but both have struggled at the Run for the Roses historically. Casse is 0-for-10 at the Kentucky Derby and has never had a horse hit the board, while Ortiz is 0-for-9 in his career with Kentucky Derby mounts.
Sandman flashed impressive closing speed in going from eighth-to-first against a nine-horse field in the Arkansas Derby, but he benefited from a brisk early pace. Against pacesetters with the restraint to dial it back and go wire-to-wire, he might have to kick earlier and he could face a traffic along the way against a field full of closers. Added distance at Churchill Downs might help, but Tapit’s bloodline has generally fared better in the 12-furlong Belmont Stakes. Menez thinks a late charge to a third-place finish is the best-case scenario for Sandman, making him a horse to fade when finalizing how to bet the Kentucky Derby 2025.
Another curveball: Menez is high on Burnham Square, even though he is a 12-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. He has hit the board in all six career starts and has two graded stakes victories to his name. He won the Holy Bull Stakes in his 3-year-old debut and the Blue Grass Stakes in his last start. That Blue Grass victory came against a stacked field that featured three other horses who are part of the 2025 Kentucky Derby lineup.
Burnham Square also raced at Churchill Downs last November, so he has track experience, and he has a Derby-winning jockey in Brian Hernandez, who won last year. The horse also has a unique skill for his running style that Menez believes give him an edge. “Of all of the late-running closers, I prefer Burnham Square the best because I think he has a bit more tactical speed than the others,” Menez told SportsLine. “Most importantly he has shown a willingness to pass horses on the inside, which, in the 20-horse Derby field, can be the difference between winning and losing.” See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks
Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
2025 Kentucky Derby contenders
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 4 Rodriguez | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 10 Grande | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty
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