We’re 10 races into the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season and William Byron has gone wire-to-wire as the leader in the NASCAR standings. The Daytona 500 was Byron’s only win of the season, but he is still 41 points ahead of teammate Kyle Larson as we head into the 2025 Wurth 400 on Sunday. Texas Motor Speedway has been a fixture on the NASCAR schedule since and the green flag will drop at the 1.5-mile quad-oval at 3:30 p.m. ET. Larson is the +500 favorite in the 2025 Texas NASCAR odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while Byron is just behind him at +600.
Reigning champion Joey Logano is +250 to finish top five in the latest NASCAR props from FanDuel. Before entering any 2025 Wurth 400 picks, NASCAR DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or locking in NASCAR props on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog Fantasy, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Texas predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began its 2025 season by calling Chase Elliott to win for a +300 payout at the Clash at Bowman Gray and was also high on Byron as a +2000 longshot at Daytona. Then it predicted Kyle Larson’s win in Miami for a +350 payout. In 2024, it nailed Larson to win in Las Vegas for a 21-5 sports betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin’s wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4.
It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 20 winners since 2021, including nine in 2023 and three in the first seven races last season. Anyone who followed its lead on betting apps and sportsbooks on those NASCAR picks could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the Wurth 400 2025 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Texas leaderboard.
Top 2025 Wurth 400 predictions
For the 2025 Wurth 400, we can tell you the model is high on Chase Briscoe, even though he’s a huge +2200 longshot in the latest 2025 NASCAR at Texas odds. The 30-year-old is a two-time winner in the NASCAR Cup Series and has made the playoffs twice in his four years at the sport’s top level, but the expectations are that he’ll move into more serious title contention now that’s he’s joined Joe Gibbs Racing in the No. 19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota that Martin Truex Jr. made famous.
Thus far, he’s 12th in the NASCAR standings, but he has won a pole and recorded three top-five finishes over the first 10 races. Briscoe has also run well recently at Texas Motor Speedway, recording top-10 finishes the last three seasons. Caesars is offering the best price on Briscoe to win.
The model has also revealed a shocking NASCAR prop for Sunday: Ryan Blaney finishes top five for a +130 payout at the 1.5-mile speedway. The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series champion and last year’s runner-up dropped to eighth in this year’s NASCAR standings after getting caught up in Talladega’s craziness early and finishing 37th. However, he was top five in each of his two previous starts at Bristol and Darlington and he’s looked like the best speedway racer in the NASCAR Cup Series thus far despite some bad luck.
He won the pole in Atlanta and went on to finish fourth and then led 124 laps in Miami before engine failure ended his day prematurely. That’s why the model likes adding him to your NASCAR at Texas prop bets or to spice up your NASCAR parlays this week. This time around, it’s DraftKings offering the best price on Blaney top-five finish. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 NASCAR at Texas picks
The model is also targeting three other drivers with Texas NASCAR odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks, props, and projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.
So who wins the NASCAR Wurth 400 2025, and which longshots are must-backs? Check out the latest 2025 NASCAR at Texas odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full NASCAR Texas projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 20 winners, and find out.
2025 NASCAR Texas odds, drivers, lineup
See the full NASCAR at Texas picks at SportsLine
Kyle Larson +500
William Byron +600
Tyler Reddick +750
Denny Hamlin +800
Christopher Bell +800
Ryan Blaney +900
Joey Logano +1400
Chase Briscoe +1400
Kyle Busch +1600
Bubba Wallace +1800
Chase Elliott +2000
Alex Bowman +2200
Ty Gibbs +2500
Ross Chastain +2800
Josh Berry +3000
Chris Buescher +3000
Brad Keselowski +3500
Daniel Suarez +4000
Carson Hocevar +7000
Austin Cindric +8000
Ryan Preece +9000
Noah Gragson +9000
Erik Jones +9000
Austin Dillon +10000
AJ Allmendinger +10000
Michael McDowell +13000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +15000
Zane Smith +15000
Justin Haley +20000
John Hunter Nemechek +20000
Jesse Love +20000
Todd Gilliland +20000
Riley Herbst +30000
Cody Ware +30000
Cole Custer +30000
Ty Dillon +30000
Chad Finchum +30000
Shane Van Gisbergen +30000
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