Three teams have had a stranglehold on the NASCAR at Texas Victory Lane recently, as 15 of the last 16 races at Texas Motor Speedway have been claimed by Hendrick, Stewart-Haas or Joe Gibbs Racing. Thus, the top of the 2025 Wurth 400 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook features drivers from those teams like Kyle Larson (+350), William Byron (+490) and Denny Hamlin (+900). Considering the teams’ successes, perhaps it would be prudent to target 2025 NASCAR Texas sleepers from them, such as Chase Briscoe (+1400), Alex Bowman (+2200) or Ty Gibbs (+2500). Austin Cindric prevailed last week at Talladega as a +1600 NASCAR longshot, so it’s not just the big-name drivers to consider for Wurth 400 picks. The green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Before entering any 2025 Wurth 400 picks, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Texas predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model. Developed by SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, the proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times and has nailed a whopping 20 winners since 2021, including two winners in 2025.
SportsLine simulated the Wurth 400 2025 10,000 times. Here are the three NASCAR longshots to target, according to the model:
Chase Briscoe (+1800 at Bet365)
After spending four years with Stewart-Haas Racing, Briscoe then linked up with another team with a strong history of success at TMS in Joe Gibbs Racing. Like Stewart-Haas, JGR has four victories at the track, and Briscoe has his own impressive resume at Texas. He’s one of three drivers with top 10s at each of the last three NASCAR Texas races, and only two drivers better his average finish of 7.0 at the speedway over that span. He’s finished in the top 15 in all four of his official Texas Motor Speedway starts and even notched a fourth-place finish when TMS hosted the NASCAR All-Star Open in 2021. Briscoe is a steal at Bet365.
Kyle Busch (+2500 at DraftKings)
History has shown that as long as Busch doesn’t wreck his vehicle, then he will be in contention for the NASCAR at Texas checkered flag. Over his last 10 starts at Texas, he has seven top 10s, with the three outliers all being due to accidents or DVP. He’s also led for multiple laps in seven of those starts and has collected two stage victories along the way. Busch’s prosperity at TMS is part of his success on 1.5-miles intermediate tracks as a whole. He has the most top 5s (76) and top 10s (116) of all active drivers at 1.5-miles tracks, and that’s not just because of the high volume of starts he’s had on these circuits. Busch’s career average finish of 13.3 on tracks of this length is second-best amongst active drivers.
Chase Elliott (+1800 at FanDuel)
After a couple of down years, by his standards, Elliott is back in contention for the Cup Series crown, sitting in fourth place entering the Wurth 400 2025. He ranks third in top 10s (six), with the third-best average finish (10.9) this season, and now he’s stepping onto the track where his last NASCAR victory came at. Elliott won this race a year ago by taking the lead from Hamlin and leading for a total of 39 laps. Elliott is one of three Hendrick drivers to win the last four NASCAR Texas races, and the other two — Larson and Byron — have the shortest odds. Thus, there’s value in grabbing him at +1800 at FanDuel since Elliott is listed at +1600 at other sportsbooks.
More top NASCAR at Texas expert picks, longshots revealed
You’ve seen the NASCAR longshots from the model. Now, see the full 2025 Wurth 400 leaderboard, including forecasts for who finishes first. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 20 winners, including Chase Elliott’s victory at Bowman Gray and Kyle Larson’s win at Homestead.
You can also view expert advice before locking in your NASCAR at Texas picks. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Steven Taranto’s picks, including an epic longshot of over 40-1, all from an expert who nailed 17 NASCAR winners last year.
2025 NASCAR Texas odds, drivers, lineup
Kyle Larson +350
William Byron +490
Tyler Reddick +750
Denny Hamlin +800
Christopher Bell +800
Ryan Blaney +900
Joey Logano +1400
Chase Briscoe +1400
Kyle Busch +1600
Bubba Wallace +1800
Chase Elliott +2000
Alex Bowman +2200
Ty Gibbs +2500
Ross Chastain +2800
Josh Berry +3000
Chris Buescher +3000
Brad Keselowski +3500
Daniel Suarez +4000
Carson Hocevar +7000
Austin Cindric +8000
Ryan Preece +9000
Noah Gragson +9000
Erik Jones +9000
Austin Dillon +10000
AJ Allmendinger +10000
Michael McDowell +13000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +15000
Zane Smith +15000
Justin Haley +20000
John Hunter Nemechek +20000
Jesse Love +20000
Todd Gilliland +20000
Riley Herbst +30000
Cody Ware +30000
Cole Custer +30000
Ty Dillon +30000
Chad Finchum +30000
Shane Van Gisbergen +30000
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