Mirtle: Can Maple Leafs beat Panthers? 5 keys to victory for Toronto

Sports

add

So, the Toronto Maple Leafs are big underdogs in Round 2. I don’t think many outside of the biggest blue and white die-hards are disputing that, and certainly the oddsmakers aren’t, given Toronto’s struggles facing the Florida Panthers in recent years.

What’s interesting is this is the first series the Leafs have been this big of an underdog, according to historical odds, since the first round in 2017 when they had seven rookies in the lineup — including baby-faced Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander — against the Washington Capitals.

Many betting sites are giving the Leafs around only a 40 percent chance of moving on. (Our probabilities have it higher, at 46 percent.)

Toronto was considered a fairly heavy favorite in five of its previous seven playoff series — including Round 1 this season against the Ottawa Senators, both rounds in 2023 against the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Florida Panthers (recall that those Panthers were an eighth seed), the 2021 disaster against the Montreal Canadiens and the 2020 disaster against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The first-round matchups in 2019 (the Boston Bruins), 2022 (Tampa) and 2024 (Boston) were considered tossups, and the first-round series in 2018 (also Boston) had Toronto as a big underdog, but slightly less so than this current series.

Why are the markets so down on the Leafs? Well, for one, Florida won the Stanley Cup last year, made the final the year before and made short work of the Lightning in the first round. It looks pretty darn good. Again.

Mix that in with Toronto’s ugly playoff history, and it makes sense. But the other thing is, the Panthers have just really had the Leafs’ number.

Consider that, in their last 15 meetings, including the regular season and playoffs, Toronto has won just three times in regulation. And the biggest thing that stands out is the Leafs haven’t been able to score in those games, averaging just 2.06 goals per game.

Part of that is, in their last 10 regular-season meetings, the Leafs power play has converted at just 9 percent against Florida. Combine that with Toronto’s having only 42.9 percent possession in those games at even strength, and it’s a lot of arrows going the wrong way.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that a lot of those results from those last 15 games between these teams involved different rosters. The Leafs appear, on paper, to be better equipped to deal with what’s coming in this series than, say, the 2023 team.

Will it be enough to prove the oddsmakers wrong? Only if many of these things below go Toronto’s way.

Here’s what I see as their keys to victory.

1. Get a draw in goal from Anthony Stolarz/Joseph Woll, at minimum

I hate trying to predict goaltending because the results can be all over the place in a short series.

The Leafs won the goaltending battle in Round 1 against one former Vezina winner; they’ll have to try to do similar against an even tougher opponent in Sergei Bobrovsky, who somehow keeps getting it done despite being the second-oldest starter in the league this season. (Bonus points if you know who’s first, answer is below!)

Purely statistically speaking, Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll have outperformed Bobrovsky over the past two regular seasons. The issue is they did so in about half as many games played, and as we all know by now, regular-season tandem starts aren’t playoff starts.

There were already some subtle signs that Stolarz was feeling some of the fatigue of starting every second night against Ottawa. He faded later in the series, and as a result, Woll could be a factor here. He’s played well in the past coming into a series midway through, against Florida in 2023 and last season versus the Bruins.

It’ll be interesting to see whether the familiarity factor plays any role for Stolarz. He’s talked about learning a lot from watching Bobrovsky go through last year’s Cup run, and obviously, he knows the Panthers’ top shooters, and they know him. Is that an advantage or disadvantage for the Leafs?

You have to favor Bobrovsky just because of his incredible track record. He’s likely a Hall of Famer and the most accomplished goalie left in the league not named Marc-Andre Fleury. But I say that with no great confidence.

If the Leafs goalies can keep up with him, that’s going to be a massive equalizer, given Toronto is likely going to be outshot in this series with the style it plays.

How will Toronto’s top players match up against Florida’s top players? (Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)

2. Have the Core Four deliver (especially late in series)

Pretty straightforward. I don’t need to rehash the whole history here, but Matthews, Marner, Nylander and John Tavares haven’t exactly lit series on fire in elimination games.

As a group, they were fine against the Senators. Fine isn’t going to be enough in this series to advance.

The forward lines matchups are pretty fascinating in this series. The Panthers are one of the few teams in the league that can match the Leafs at the top end, as Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart and Matthew Tkachuk are an incredible top three.

Toronto likely gets the edge at the fourth and fifth forward spots, thanks to Tavares and Matthew Knies, but then the six, seven and eight spots all favor Florida’s depth, which I’ll get into further down.

That means winning the battle at the top of the lineup is going to be huge in this series. Tkachuk is not playing at 100 percent — his minutes were way down to under 14 per game in Round 1 — so there’s a window for the Leafs’ best players to outplay Florida’s.

They need to take advantage of that in games 5, 6 and 7 to move on.

3. Survive the Florida forecheck and physicality

Part of why the Panthers always seem to have Toronto’s number is a systemic thing. The Leafs have struggled for years, going back to those early Boston series, with teams that can press with a hard forecheck and play physically, and no team embodies that more in the NHL right now than Florida.

Here’s where the additions of Chris Tanev, Brandon Carlo and Oliver Ekman-Larsson should give the Leafs a bit of separation over previous rosters. Add in the fact coach Craig Berube has had them playing the type of style that should be more effective against Florida all season, and there’s hope here.

But don’t expect it to be a Picasso. I pulled a Phone-A-Friend on this one and texted out the simple question: “How do you think they can beat Florida?”

“They’re going to have to handle the forecheck well and break pucks out,” explained Frankie Corrado, TSN analyst and former Leafs defenseman. “I don’t think it has to be clean. You go back for pucks and if you feel pressure, it’s a lot of hard rims and chip outs into the neutral zone. Punt the battle out there.

“I think if you try to be clean under pressure with Florida, they’re going to trap you in your own zone. Just focus on getting it out. Florida dumps the puck in more than anyone, so you know it’s coming.”

Few players in the NHL can handle a hard dump-in and turn the breakout the other way better than Tanev, who pulled that off again and again all season (and against Ottawa) for the Leafs. He’s going to be pivotal for them in surviving what’s coming.

4. Keep converting on the power play

Again, pretty straightforward, and this is a big part of No. 2, as well. Part of why the Core Four haven’t produced in the playoffs in key moments is that they haven’t been very good on the man advantage, which seems to get the yips when big games are on the line.

Matthews ended that drought in dramatic fashion to open Game 6 on Thursday, and maybe that’s the start of something. Toronto’s five-forward power play was dominant throughout the second half of the season and has scored on 35.3 percent of its chances so far in the postseason.

AUSTON MATTHEWS 🚨

POWER PLAY GOAL! pic.twitter.com/JVHWIe2Kpv

— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) May 1, 2025

If they can keep that up, that’ll be a huge asset — especially if they can remain disciplined in the face of the antics that are likely coming in this series.

5. Get more contributions from supporting cast

The Leafs did get goals from some surprising places in Round 1, with the blue line chipping in five goals, and the Maxes — Domi and Pacioretty — getting two huge game-winning goals.

Other than that, however, not a single depth forward scored in the series, something that has to change given Florida is highly likely to get offense from beyond its big guys, led by Brad Marchand, Sam Bennett, Anton Lundell, Eetu Luostarinen, Evan Rodrigues and Mackie Samoskevich. (Yes, I copied and pasted a couple of those.)

That group had six goals for Florida in five games in Round 1, and more than 100 during the season, which dwarfs the contributions the Leafs have had from down their lineup all year.

Getting more — heck, getting anything — from Bobby McMann feels important. You’d also like to see the new third line of Scott Laughton, Calle Järnkrok and Steven Lorentz breaks through with a goal or two after getting shut out in Round 1.

Though some of the Leafs’ depth players have played very well defensively, Toronto can’t afford to have a complete offensive black hole in its bottom six and get through this series.

Trivia answer: Detroit Red Wings goalie Cam Talbot, age 37, is the only goalie older than Bobrovsky to appear in more than 26 games this season.

(Top photo: John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

Share on

email

Previous

trending_flat

Blackhawks and NHL Draft Lottery: Everything you need to know

Sports

Next

trending_flat

Blues’ Jordan Binnington, built for big moments, is ‘locked in’ for Game 7

Sports