Champions League semi-final betting: Can Inter snuff out Barcelona’s bright spark?

Sports

add

For more stories like this click here to follow The Athletic’s sports betting section and have them added to your feed.

It’s hard to put into words the incredible spectacle that was the first leg of the Barcelona and Internazionale. It was one of the best Champions League semi-final matchups in recent memory.

With the two clubs tied at 3-3 heading into the second leg, there’s bound to be even more excitement in store. But before we lose ourselves in the mayhem, let’s collectively take a deep breath and see if there is any value to be found in the betting markets.

The same script?

It’s quite rare in football to see a game play out almost exactly as expected. Heading to Camp Nou as a sizable underdog, Inter did exactly that by leaning into their tried-and-tested defend-and-counter strategy. As Hansi Flick-led teams typically do, Barca responded to an early deficit by piling on the pressure until the final whistle blew.

The end result couldn’t have been more on-brand for the two juggernauts. The Italians finished with three goals off just seven shots – with a fourth ruled offside controversially by a toenail. The Spanish giants also found the back of the net three times but did so by having 71 per cent possession thanks to 649 completed passes. Barca midfielder Frenkie de Jong completed 101 passes alone, nearly half of Inter’s 227 total completions as a team.

With the return leg at the San Siro, it’ll be interesting to see if Inter remain in their defensive shell. The Nerazzurri likely don’t want to bank on hoping penalties go their way after dodging an avalanche of shots over 120 minutes. It remains to be seen, however, if Inter have the extra gear to pry the ball away from Flick’s possession machine.

In the first leg, Inter opted for a more passive approach, reflected in a 15.8 passes per defensive action (PPDA). In their 1-0 Serie A win against Hellas Verona this weekend, that number dropped down to 12.2, proving that Simone Inzaghi’s side can be more aggressive when the situation calls for it. So, if Inter do push harder on the pressing pedal at home, what betting value could that unlock?

An under? In this economy?

The initial reaction to a more open game on Tuesday is that the 3-3 result in the first leg would seem tame by comparison. A more measured look, however, would reveal that both teams drastically overperformed their underlying numbers a week ago. Any team scoring three times off just seven shots, as Inter did, is getting lucky in some way, shape or form. It’s even more fortunate that those three goals came off the 0.8 expected goals (xG).

Thanks to some sublime finishes and a wild own goal, Barca were also fortunate to see the ball go into the back of the net on three different occasions. Flick’s men converted their trifecta of goals off just 1.4 xG; that means the match had nearly triple the goals as the underlying numbers suggest. Expected goals aren’t a universal law, but very few individuals or teams can outrun them for very long.

It may seem counterintuitive, but it’s an under bet that perhaps unlocks the most value. With “Both teams to score: yes” priced all the way down to 2/5, the markets are clearly being influenced by the first-leg’s goal-fest. Pivoting to the under of 3.5 goals isn’t all that lucrative, but the 4/5 odds side more with the actual performance of last Wednesday’s showdown, rather the end result.

■ Can Arsenal find a way to stem PSG’s build-up play?
■ Will defensive set pieces be either team’s undoing?
■ Can Inter stop Pedri?
■ Can Barcelona deal with Inter’s centre-back rotations?

These are the questions that could decide which teams reach the #UCL final ⬇️

— The Athletic | Football (@TheAthleticFC) May 5, 2025

Let’s talk Lamine

If there was ever a match that was an advertisement for the power of objective data, it was the first leg between these two sides. The Lamine Yamal hype was nearly out of control after an electrifying performance from the 17-year-old wunderkind. Yet there was something bizarre about his jaw-dropping evening: it wasn’t nearly as dominant as it seemed.

The17-year-old didn’t lead Barca in most key categories. The team’s leader in xG in the first leg was Ferran Torres, the most expected assist (xA) value was provided by Raphinha (0.6), and of those 101 completed passes by the Dutchman De Jong, 15 were of the crucial progressive variety (the ones that push the ball at least 10 yards closer toward an opponent’s goal).

Yamal did lead the team in passes into the penalty area with three, but Pedri and Torres were right behind him with two each. The electric youngster topped the team in carries into the penalty area and penalty area touches by a wide margin – that’s a good thing. The same is true of both shots (6) and crosses (10) – not so good.

Those latter two marks made more of a negative impact than a positive one. As the Transfer Flow’s Kim McCauley illustrated last week, those shots and crosses contributed to an overall on-ball value (OBV) – a stat that essentially grades decision-making – that ranked as the lowest on the team.

When Yamal deftly flicks the ball with the outside of his boot towards teammates lurching toward the goal, it may look aesthetically pleasing but crosses add almost no value to an attack. Unfortunately for the young prodigy, he let loose 10 of them. The six shots Yamal took seemed breathtaking, until you realize that, on average, those half-dozen shots were worth a paltry 0.03 xG. That mark over a full season would put Yamal in the “defensive midfielder who just wants to take a pop from way outside the box” company.

Bet the other Barca boys – not Yamal

Before going any further, it’s important to clarify something: Yamal is one of the best players in the world. He’s in that conversation at just 17 years old, which is amazing. It just so happens that for one match, he made some suboptimal choices that looked spellbinding, but, in actuality, didn’t contribute as much toward winning. This is why analytics are great and like a bucket of cold water being poured over your head at a birthday party.

Having seen that first leg, it’s going to be tempting to bet on one of the electric youngster’s individual lines. The value, as we’ve annoyingly established, will likely lie more in with his teammates.

Instead of talking Yamal at 100/30 for over 0.5 assists, instead, look to Pedri at 8/1. Before throwing money down on Yamal to score at 3/1, maybe back Torres at 21/10 or, if he’s fit and in the starting XI, Robert Lewandowski at 6/5.

There is certainly no issue with being mesmerized by the teenage sensation in the second leg; just don’t bet on him.

More Champions League stories

Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Lamine Yamal: Carl Recine / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

Share on

email

Previous

trending_flat

NBA & Fantasy Basketball Loser Lineup: Los Angeles Clippers — is there any hope?

Sports

Next

trending_flat

Report: Michigan’s Sherrone Moore facing two-game ban

Sports