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Aaron Judge is doing things we’ve never seen before (and Jacob Wilson is doing things we haven’t seen in a while).
Plus: more notes on Dodgers-Braves, and the schedule-makers made this week a pretty good one. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!
Numbers: Today in WTF Aaron Judge
Sorry to break the fourth wall, but when I sat down to write today’s Windup, I had a thought: “Do I need to dig in and try to explain just how absolutely bonkers Aaron Judge’s season has been?”
As it turned out, I don’t have to — Jayson Stark did just that! But Stark expands the focus a bit asking whether Judge might be the greatest right-handed hitter in modern times.
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The argument isn’t a slam dunk, but Jayson makes some compelling arguments, digging into Judge’s last calendar year and his last 450 games. Both spans have been historic. Any time you start referencing Rogers Hornsby and Jimmie Foxx (and still using “nobody else has ever …”) you’re in a special echelon.
Read the story for the mind-boggling context, but I want to point out one stat from this year, which has been an outlier, even by Judge’s standards. This stat blew my mind: In Judge’s first 34 games, his .423 batting average was higher than any other American League hitter’s on-base percentage?!
I used to wonder what it was like to watch baseball when Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle were both playing. Between Judge and Shohei Ohtani, I think future generations will probably ask the same of this era.
Ken’s Notebook: Betts’ significant changes
Leftover notes from Saturday’s Dodgers-Braves broadcast on Fox:
Freddie Freeman: His surgically repaired right ankle still is not 100 percent, but he said he is proceeding now as if he is dealing with a yellow light instead of one that is red. He can push off on his right foot diving back to the bag or push for an extra base after hitting a ball in the gap. Still, he is taking precautions to prevent jamming the ankle, taping it and wearing a heel lift in his right cleat for support. He also continues to receive treatment before and after games.
Mookie Betts: Defensive metrics are not particularly trustworthy this early in the season, but so far, so good: Betts is rating above-average in his return to shortstop. He still doesn’t have the instincts a player develops from years of playing one position, but he said he is enjoying the process and relishing the early work before games. Much less goes into playing the outfield. He said, “You get to the field, and you can just kind of chill all day.”
- Additionally, Betts recently went through a 13-game stretch in which he batted .176. The problem, he said, was that he created bad habits trying to regain his bat speed after an illness caused him to miss about 10 days and sit out the opening series in Japan. His bat speed, even when he is fully healthy, is below average. “You take off 20 pounds,” he said, “and it’s even worse.” His weight, which dropped to 158 pounds, is back up to 178.
Sean Murphy: Missed nearly two months with a strained left oblique last season, played only four games on a rehab assignment and was never the same. In hindsight, the Braves feel they brought Murphy back too soon. So, when he went down with a left rib cage fracture in spring training, they vowed to give him more time to recover. But this time, his rehab assignment was even shorter, lasting only three games. Normally quiet and reserved, he was adamant when talking to club officials — this was a different injury, he said, a broken bone that healed. His argument proved convincing. And his performance shows he was right.
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Alex Verdugo: Has made a conscious effort to get back to doing what he does best — working counts, controlling at-bats, not giving in. Verdugo said last year he was too intent on making something happen and getting a result, instead of staying under control and reacting to how he was getting pitched. Trying to force the issue at the plate, he would spin off and become too rotational, and it led to weak contact. As he put it, “I deviated from my plan and got a little lost in my own self.”
Schedules: Early-season measuring sticks
One rule of thumb for me, when it comes to identifying a series I want to highlight, is: “Does this feel like a particularly important series for both teams?”
With that as our guiding star, I must say: the schedule-makers have blessed us with a few matchups this week that feel significant:
Padres (23-11) at Yankees (19-16): Game one went to the Padres in dramatic fashion, only adding fuel to the argument that if they had managed to slay the Dragons Dodgers in the NLCS last season, they could have finally won the franchise’s first championship.
Mets (23-13) at DBacks (18-17): When they met a week ago, the Diamondbacks — currently in fourth place in the NL West — took two out of three from the NL East leaders in New York. The Mets took game one last night in Arizona.
Giants (22-14) at Cubs (22-14): The Cubs expected to win the Central this year. The Giants have surprised a few people out West. Chicago took last night’s series opener, bringing the teams to identical records, but this feels to me like an early chance for the Giants to prove their hot start won’t flame out.
Mariners (20-14) at A’s (20-16): Who would have thought we’d see these two teams in a list like this? But take a look at the AL West standings: The Texas teams who have dominated the division lately are both trailing these two. The A’s can make things very interesting this week — they’re just a game behind Seattle for the division lead after …
Actually, let’s get into that below:
Always Swing: Jacob Wilson, man of action
From 2018-2022, one of my favorite players to watch was Willians Astudillo. The man was 225 pounds of aggression poured into a 5-9 frame. In 588 career plate appearances, “La Tortuga” had a total of 28 strikeouts (4.8 percent). He also walked just 11 times (1.9 percent).
For context, the league-wide strikeout rate in those years was 22.7 percent, and the walk rate was 8.5 percent.
We might be seeing the rise of “Wilson Astudillo” in Sacramento. Allow me to introduce Jacob Wilson of the A’s. Going into last night’s game against the Mariners, Wilson’s strikeout rate this year was 4.4 percent, his walk rate 3.7 percent.
He didn’t get his first walk until April 23 — 22 games (87 plate appearances) into the season. In fact, he hadn’t even seen a three-ball count before that. (Watch his team react here.)
Two of his five walks this year (including that one) came with the bases loaded. So he can do it, he just chooses not to.
But what might spare him from Astudillo’s short-lived career: Wilson is playing pretty good shortstop for the A’s (fun fact: that’s the only position Astudillo never played in the big leagues).
Last night, literally as I was writing this, Wilson singled in the tying run in the 10th inning against the Mariners. He did it on the first pitch, naturally. Then in the 11th, the Mariners intentionally walked two hitters to load the bases for Wilson.
He singled to walk it off. Naturally. 7-6 A’s.
“That’s what he does,” said Mariners’ TV announcer Aaron Goldsmith, repeating it for emphasis and seemingly confused at the decision. “That’s what he does.”
Handshakes and High Fives
A.J. Smith-Shawver took a no-hitter into the 8th inning last night against the Reds.
Angels GM Perry Minasian says the Angels are in a slump. They have a .269 on-base percentage this year. Sam Blum uses that number and nine others to suggest this is more than that.
Hyeseong Kim has brought a spark of athleticism and energy to the Dodgers, even in his first three days on the roster. Last night, Shohei Ohtani made sure to celebrate (and celebrate with) Kim after hitting a home run.
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Well, it was a good run for the Mets at the top of the Power Rankings, but the inevitable Dodgers are back on top. This week, we look at each team’s biggest in-season move.
Jim Bowden identifies five trades he’d like to see in advance of this year’s deadline.
The injuries keep rolling in: Teoscar Hernández (hamstring) was removed from the Dodgers’ game against the Marlins. Reds prospect Tyler Callihan broke his arm on a horrifying wall collision. Shota Imanaga (hamstring) officially hit the IL, as did Yordan Álvarez (hand) with the Astros and Jesse Winker (oblique) with the Mets. Sheesh.
On the upside, Jackson Merrill should be back in action for the Padres tonight.
Looking for hitters primed to rebound from a slow start? Eno and DVR discussed how they use BABIP as a starting point to find them on the latest episode of Rates & Barrels.
Most-clicked in our last newsletter: Boston’s plans, with Triston Casas out for the year.
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(Photo: Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
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