After a down year by his standards in 2024, Pete Alonso bet on himself this offseason. So far, that bet is paying off, as Alonso is slashing .349/.469/.674 to lead the National League in all three categories while hitting nine home runs and driving in 33. The 30-year-old has put himself in a position to land a healthy payday next offseason and he’s also been a fixture of winning MLB home run picks during the first six weeks of the season.
Alonso hit another home run on Monday and has multiple hits in three of his last four games. FanDuel Sportsbook has him listed at +350 in the MLB home run odds on Tuesday in Arizona, but is there enough meat on that bone to his him in your MLB HR picks? With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 17-11 roll on all top-rated MLB picks since the start of the season. The model has been routinely calling home run props and is up 32.05 units during the last 28 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Tuesday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +8108 odds and would pay out $410.41 on a $5 bet at FanDuel.
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+350)
For our FanDuel Dinger Tuesday picks and parlays, we’re playing Schwarber at +285 here. However, you can find this line for as high as +350, which is still a value considering that BetMGM and Caesars both have him priced at +240. Schwarber leads the National League with 11 home runs and he’s 3-for-8 with a home run off Rays starter Drew Rasmussen. He’ll also benefit from temperatures in the mid-80s and a gentle breeze forecasted to blow out to right field on Tuesday night.
“If you can get Schwarber at +300 or higher against a right-handed pitcher, there is almost always going to be value on him to hit a HR,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “While Rasmussen is good at both preventing home runs and against left-handed bats, he is pitching in a spring training park in Florida which tends to benefit hitters. We set the line at +270 for Schwarber to hit a HR today.”
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (+425)
Guerrero got off to a sluggish start from a power standpoint after signing a $500 million extension just before the season started. However, he’s hit three of his four home runs in 2025 over his last nine games and he sees the ball well against Angels lefty Tyler Anderson. Guerrero is 6-for-11 in his career off Anderson.
“Tyler Anderson has only allowed 10 ER all season, but he has allowed six home runs. Anderson is a pitch to contact hitter, and he’s prone to occasionally give up some loud contact,” Fetner said. “We set the line at +350 for Guerrero to hit a HR today.” FanDuel has this priced at +420 for our MLB HR parlay, but DraftKings is actually offering the best price here.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (+310)
Another son of a big leaguer, Tatis is in the early NL MVP conversation after finishing top five in the voting in 2020 and 2021. He’s slashing .317/.387/.556 with eight home runs, 18 RBI and eight stolen bases. Tatis has a juicy matchup on Tuesday against Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt, who has given up three home runs in his last two starts. The model sets its line at +280 for Tatis to go yard today and it’s FanDuel with the best price here.
“Tatis is hitting .371 with all 8 of his HRs against RHPs this season despite being a right-handed hitter,” Fetner said. “Tatis is facing Clarke Schmidt who just had his start pushed back as he is dealing with an injury. According to baseball savant, Schmidt ranks in just the 6th percentile in fastball run value, while Tatis destroys fastballs. If he can get into fastball counts against Schmidt, Tatis has a prime opportunity to go yard today.”
More MLB picks for Tuesday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 90-48 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 14-7 over his last 12 MLB money line picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Tuesday.
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