Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer: Hitters to target and ones to deal now

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With more than a month of regular season action in the books, fantasy baseball managers who are off to slow starts are beginning to panic. This makes May a great time to get active on the trade market, as there should be a strong appetite for major deals. Although many managers will be focused on plugging holes and addressing weaknesses right now, this is still the time of year to trade for value. The early season trade winners will be the ones who get the better player in the deal while helping their manager to sleep better at night by addressing a weakness. Here are a few hitters who will be improperly valued in many leagues.

Sell High

Kristian Campbell, 2B/OF, Boston Red Sox

I want to start by saying that I really like Campbell. He has a bright future. But no one is more overvalued on the trade market than a hyped rookie who is off to a hot start. Such is the case with Campbell, who has thus far been everything fantasy managers could have hoped for (.288/.389/.468 slash line). A closer look reveals plenty of strikeouts (26%) and an unsustainable .378 BABIP. Regression is likely coming for the rookie, and those issues could be compounded when pitchers make adjustments as they get more data on his strengths and weaknesses. Wise managers will swap the 22-year-old for a stable veteran.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, New York Yankees

A future Hall of Famer who is batting .351 in baseball’s biggest market should command a decent return in many leagues. Goldschmidt has become the definition of an empty batting average, as his lofty mark has been propped up by a .415 BABIP in spite of a decreased 88.9 mph average exit velocity. In a best-case scenario, the 37-year-old hits .300 with mediocre contributions elsewhere. And if his batting average tanks at some point, Goldschmidt will become waiver wire fodder in some formats. His Yahoo Trade Market page shows that Goldy has recently been part of some significant deals.

Sell Low

Christian Walker, 1B, Houston Astros

It may be time to get something for Walker while you still can. The 34-year-old is giving off José Abreu vibes by getting off to a miserable start after signing a multi-year contract to be the Astros first baseman. His strikeout rate has ballooned to 29.3%. To Walker’s credit, he has hit .254 with three homers since April 18 (you can use those stats in trade talks), but during that stretch he has logged an abysmal 18:1 K:BB ratio.

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Buy High

Brendan Donovan, 2B/3B/SS/OF, St. Louis Cardinals

The good thing about a “buy high” offer on Donovan is that it likely doesn’t need to be that high. After all, the versatile fielder started the season on waivers in many leagues, and his homer (3) and steals (3) totals are unremarkable. But it’s still worth trying to acquire Donovan, who has emerged as the Cardinals’ No. 3 hitter. The veteran has raised his average exit velocity and barrel rate this year, and his 11:15 BB:K ratio is an elite mark. He should be a reliable contributor the rest of the way.

Kyle Schwarber, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

Perhaps Schwarber doesn’t get enough credit, thanks his low batting averages in past seasons, but he has become one of the most reliable power producers in baseball and should be valued as a top-20 player. The slugger is tied for first in baseball with 12 home runs. He also ranks third in walks, and the best news is that he has significantly dropped his strikeout rate to 21.2%. He’s worth a massive return on the Yahoo Trade Market.

Buy Low

Yordan Álvarez, OF, Houston Astros

To win a fantasy baseball league, you sometimes need to take chances. And Álvarez is definitely a chance worth taking right now. One of the best pure hitters in baseball, Álvarez is a buy low option for two reasons. First, he has fared poorly this season, batting .210 with three home runs. And second, Álvarez was recently placed on the IL with a muscle strain in his right hand. We don’t know how long he’ll miss, but there’s optimism he’ll return quickly. The opportunity to acquire someone with a lofty lifetime .959 OPS is worth pursing, especially since his underlying skills were intact during his early slump.

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Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

Bichette has been the definition of an empty batting average thus far, batting .278 with one homer and four steals. And with the entire Blue Jays offense struggling (27th in baseball in runs scored), Bichette has scored just 13 runs despite being the team’s regular leadoff hitter. There is hope for power production, as all his batted ball tendencies are in line with his career norms. And the gap between his SLG (.371) and xSLG (.492) is among the largest in baseball.

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