Max Fried looks to continue his dominant first season with the New York Yankees when he takes the mound against the visiting San Diego Padres on Wednesday in the rubber game of their three-game series. Fried (6-0, 1.01 ERA), who signed an eight-year, $218 million contract with the Yankees in December after spending his first eight seasons with the Atlanta Braves, leads the majors in victories and the American League in ERA. The left-hander will be opposed by Dylan Cease (1-2, 5.61), who is 0-2 over his last five starts.
Sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player props at 5.5 for both Fried (Over -107, Under -114) and Cease (Over -104, Under -118). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Cease Over 5.5 as a 4.5-star play on its five-star scale and Fried Under 5.5 as a 3-star play.
However, the model has found value elsewhere on Wednesday’s 15-game schedule. There is one pitcher strikeout player prop that the model has rated at 5 stars and two at 4.5 that would pay plus-money. Here they are:
Mitch Keller Over 4.5 strikeouts (+128) vs. Cardinals (1:15 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts
Keller has gone Over this number in only two of his first seven starts this year, but one of those was on Apr. 9 against the Cardinals. In that outing, the 29-year-old right-hander fanned six batters over 7 1/3 innings – both season highs. Willson Contreras has a .318 career batting average against Keller but has struck out nine times in 22 at-bats.
Kodai Senga Over 4.5 strikeouts (-119) vs. Diamondbacks (3:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.9 strikeouts
Senga lasted only four innings against Arizona in his last start due to a high pitch count but still went Over this number, fanning six batters. It marked the second straight turn and third this season in which the 32-year-old Japanese righty registered five or more strikeouts. In three career outings versus the Diamondbacks, Senga has struck out 28 hitters across 18 innings.
Charlie Morton Over 4.5 strikeouts (+123) vs. Twins (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.3 strikeouts
Morton is returning to the starting rotation after making three relief appearances. The 41-year-old right-hander hasn’t fared well in his first season with Baltimore, as he enters Wednesday with an 0-6 record and 9.76 ERA. Morton went Over this number just once in his first five starts and recorded a total of four strikeouts over his last two turns. However, he has fanned 28 batters over 24 innings in four career outings against the Twins and Carlos Correa is a career 0-for-6 with five strikeouts versus Morton. Despite the veteran’s struggles this year, the plus-money price is right, according to the SportsLine Projection Model.
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