2025 NHL Mock Draft 1.0: Scott Wheeler predicts the entire first round

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Welcome to my first mock draft for the 2025 NHL Draft.

With the first-round order taking shape following Monday night’s draft lottery, and after speaking with agents, scouts, team staff and those around many of the players over the course of the year, this is my first crack at predicting the first round. (I’ll have another mock after the combine and a final two-round mock closer to the draft itself.)

As I begin to put together my final top 100 draft board, this is a step back from my own evaluations to consider potential targets and fits for each teams — my best guesses based on a combination of team need, my sense for team leanings and amateur scouting department preferences and the consensus.

Wherever I’ve felt comfortable enough to hypothesize, I’ve also mapped out potential contingencies and other likely considerations for certain picks.

1. New York Islanders: Matthew Schaefer, LHD, Erie Otters

I think we have to acknowledge that the Islanders will consider local product James Hagens here. I think we also have to remember that, at present, they’re GM-less. I think we have to at least wonder about ownership’s potential influence in a decision of this magnitude, too. The last time the Islanders drafted first, he left in free agency. Long Island is home for Hagens. He skates there. He trains there. His family and friends are there. The Islanders are his team. That does mean something.

I’m not quite sure it means enough, though, given what Matthew Schaefer could mean for and to them. They traded for a legit center prospect in Calum Ritchie at the deadline. They drafted a legit wing prospect in Cole Eiserman with last year’s first-rounder. And their pool is as thin as any in the league on defense. Adding a potential No. 1 D is the logical play, even if Hagens is the emotional one. I think they’ll probably come around to that.

2. San Jose Sharks: Michael Misa, C, Saginaw Spirit

Schaefer is the best-case scenario for the Sharks, and if he’s here, I expect they’ll take him. They’ve taken Will Smith and Macklin Celebrini with back-to-back top-five picks, they have a No. 7 pick in William Eklund who has established himself as a top young forward on the team and they have impressive depth at forward in their pool behind them in prospects like Quentin Musty, Igor Chernyshov and Filip Bystedt. And while they also have a premium D prospect in 2024 11th pick Sam Dickinson, adding Schaefer to Dickinson would put them in a pretty enviable position.

If Schaefer goes No. 1, there are five consensus forwards they’ll likely consider to varying degrees — centers Misa, Hagens, Anton Frondell and Caleb Desnoyers and winger Porter Martone.

Taking one of the natural centers doesn’t necessarily lock them into having to make one of Smith or the kid they take a third-line center of the future, either.

Smith already has established chemistry with Celebrini and there are some who believe he’s better-suited to be a first-line winger than a second-line center. And there are camps that believe Misa, Hagens and Frondell could be wingers in the NHL as well. Misa’s the most likely choice and is the consensus top forward in the draft, but you can find people who favour each of Hagens, Frondell and Desnoyers over him.

Desnoyers makes the most practical sense as a surefire 2C behind Celebrini. He’s a winning player type who could give them a pretty formidable one-two punch down the middle, freeing Smith up to play wing. And if they think Smith is a long-term center, then Martone as a skilled 6-foot-3 winger to potentially play with Celebrini or Smith long-term becomes appealing. Concerns about Martone’s skating and pace have softened some, but he’s still an enticing package.

Misa has the highest upside and still feels like the most likely outcome, though. Of that group, Hagens feels like the least likely to me because they already have Smith.

3. Chicago Blackhawks: Anton Frondell, C, Djurgårdens IF

I think the Blackhawks’ decision comes down to three names: Misa, Desnoyers and Frondell. They already have a lot of 5-foot-10/11 forwards with speed and skill and I don’t think it makes sense for them to add another one in Hagens. And as much as the Blackhawks fan base anecdotally seems to want Martone for his size-skill-power combination, he doesn’t fit their profile because he doesn’t have the plus-skating piece.

I think Misa’s a best-case scenario for them. He has the skating they prioritize, and he has the skill and smarts to potentially be a running mate for Connor Bedard for the next decade-plus, whether that’s as Bedard’s winger or as a center if they decide Bedard is better suited as a more frequent winger.

If Misa’s gone, Desnoyers and Frondell come into sharper focus for them. Both are 6-foot-1-and-change centers who play the game the right way. A month ago, before a disappointing showing at U18 Worlds for the Swede and an excellent QMJHL playoff run for the Canadian, the consensus favored Frondell more than it does now. I still think Frondell is probably the more likely fit for the Blackhawks, but it’s really close.

Either way, I expect the Blackhawks to call one of those three names on draft day.

4. Utah Mammoth: Caleb Desnoyers, C, Moncton Wildcats

In Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller and Tij Iginla, Utah has a lot of skill in the 5-foot-10 to 6-foot mold. I think that probably makes Hagens an unlikely selection here. In an effort to build around Cooley and Keller, the team has prioritized size at the draft maybe more than any other in the league, using high picks on big forwards like Conor Geekie and Daniil But and big defensemen like Dmitri Simashev and Maveric Lamoureux. Utah also drafted a heavyset future bottom-six center in Cole Beaudoin with its second first-rounder last year.

With Keller, Iginla and Dylan Guenther on the wings, I’d expect the Mammoth to look to find a potential 2C behind Cooley here instead of targeting a winger like Martone. With Misa and Frondell off the board, there are three names I believe they’d consider and debate: Desnoyers, Brady Martin and Jake O’Brien.

Martin is a fearless competitor who I believe is in play as early as this — and who fits the hard-working archetype Utah’s staff has always prioritized. O’Brien is a 6-foot-1 center who would add even more skill and is still well-liked for his two-way commitment level.

But Desnoyers feels like the perfect winning 2C of the future for them, positioning Utah for a potential Cooley-Desnoyers-Hayton-Beaudoin depth chart of the future down the middle.

This is probably the earliest that wild-card center Roger McQueen gets serious consideration, too, given his size and position checkmarks as a 6-foot-5 center. He’ll need clean medicals for teams to trust in taking him but Utah is a team that could take the risk given the decent depth of its pool/young NHL talent up front.

5. Nashville Predators: James Hagens, C, Boston College

I think the Preds could take Martone here and could really use his size-skill combination within their pool. They’ve prioritized competitiveness with players like Yegor Surin and Zachary L’Heureux and I could see them having interest in Martin for the same reason.

O’Brien could be a fit, too. But Smashville has waited a long time to draft a premium skill forward, and Hagens would give them that. They drafted two other 5-foot-10/11 types with Surin and Teddy Stiga a year ago, but I don’t think that can stop you from swinging on a player of Hagens’ talent. The last time the Preds picked in the top five, they took Seth Jones. If Hagens is here, I think they should make him their next American star.

6. Philadelphia Flyers: Brady Martin, C, Soo Greyhounds

Even after the Flyers took a center a year ago in Jett Luchanko, the expectation is that they will double down on the middle again this year. If Hagens or Desnoyers were to be here, I’d expect the pick to be one of them. If they’re not, I think it’ll be Martin, a classic Flyer in the truest sense with real upside and a one-of-one makeup as a competitor. If not him, then the talented and still-competitive O’Brien.

7. Boston Bruins: Jake O’Brien, C, Brantford Bulldogs

If it plays out the way I have it here, this will be O’Brien or Martone. Ultimately, I think the Bruins begin their rebuild down the middle, though. I think they’d be all over Martin if he’s here as well. (McQueen is probably in play here depending on his medicals, too.)

8. Seattle Kraken: Porter Martone, RW, Brampton Steelheads

I think Martone could go to the Preds at No. 5 and the Bruins at No. 7, but if he doesn’t, I wonder if the Kraken might be his floor. They haven’t taken a D with their first-rounder yet, their pool is deep up front, and I fully expect they’ll consider guys like Radim Mrtka (who played in their backyard with the Thunderbirds this year) and Kashawn Aitcheson here if they want to fill an area of need. But they’re also one of the teams that’s well-positioned to take a winger over a center, having already drafted natural centers in Matty Beniers, Shane Wright and Berkly Catton. Martone could be a great running mate for one of those guys.

9. Buffalo Sabres: Roger McQueen, C, Brandon Wheat Kings

I’m sure the Sabres will put this pick in play to try to upgrade their roster and finally work out of the bottom of the Eastern Conference, but if they keep it, they’re a team that I think could take McQueen. They’ve drafted a lot of average-sized or undersized forwards (Konsta Helenius, Zach Benson, Brodie Ziemer, Noah Ostlund, Isak Rosen, etc.) and McQueen would give them something completely different and be a high-upside bet. I could see them look long and hard at Kashawn Aitcheson’s competitiveness and Martin if he’s still available for the same reason as well.

10. Anaheim Ducks: Radim Mrtka, RHD, Seattle Thunderbirds

Jackson LaCombe, Pavel Mintyukov, Olen Zellweger, Tristan Luneau and Stian Solberg give the Ducks a really strong group of five young D to build an NHL blue line with. But Mrtka would give them something unique with his 6-foot-5 length and skating. If any of the forwards taken ahead of them in this mock drop, I could see them being interested in each, McQueen included. I thought about Victor Eklund here as well. But they took a right-shot winger atop last year’s draft and we almost never see just one defenseman go in the top 10.

11. Pittsburgh Penguins: Victor Eklund, LW, Djurgårdens IF

Ideally, I think the Penguins would hope for one of the top centers to fall. If that doesn’t happen, though, I don’t think their pool — as improved as it is — can afford to reach for a center. The consensus top center left is Braeden Cootes, but he’s a lower-upside bet and Eklund, a skilled but competitive and smart right-shot winger, is the Kyle Dubas/Wes Clark type. I could see them looking to add some size, though, as well, and think a player like Lynden Lakovic could fit and go as early as this pick as well.

12. New York Rangers: Kashawn Aitcheson, LHD, Barrie Colts

I think the Rangers take a D here, and Aitcheson and Mrtka are the most likely candidates in this range. They’ve gravitated to the thorny pest types in the past with Brennan Othmann and Brett Berard, and the heavy hitters with guys like Will Cuylle and Matt Rempe. Aitcheson is both of those and then some as a rare throwback. Jackson Smith could be in the mix here, too, but he’s third in the consensus of those three right now.

13. Detroit Red Wings: Justin Carbonneau, RW, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada

Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson mean the Red Wings don’t necessarily have to chase a center like some other teams might feel they have to. I’m sure they’d love to get one of the top-end ones in this draft but with those pivots all gone here, I wonder if they consider a winger or a D over centers like Cootes and Reschny (I’d consider Reschny, but I’m not sure they would).

There are also some of their “types” here in the strong, athletic, competitive and skilled Justin Carbonneau and Carter Bear. They drafted a right-shot winger of a similar makeup to Carbonneau last year when they took Michael Brandsegg-Nygård, and Bear is a lefty, but Bear’s Achilles injury may be just enough to steer a team toward a player like Carbonneau or even Lakovic (another lefty).

On defense, I’m sure they’d be interested in Mrtka if he were available. He actually gave me Moritz Seider as his comp. Smith could be in the mix as well.

14. Columbus Blue Jackets: Jackson Smith, LHD, Tri-City Americans

The Blue Jackets have two draft picks in the middle of the first round. I expect they’ll take a defenseman with at least one of them, and more likely the first one so that they can get their guy. I think Mrtka and Aitcheson are likely gone here, though, which likely leads to Smith or Logan Hensler.

If they take a forward here, Lakovic fits the bill.

15. Vancouver Canucks: Braeden Cootes, C, Seattle Thunderbirds

This is the range where the conversation really heats up around projectable, well-liked wingers like Carbonneau, Lakovic and Bear. I prefer all three of those kids to Cootes and think they could and should be considered by the Canucks here, but the Canucks have almost nothing coming down the middle and most scouts believe Cootes is every bit in the same conversation as those wingers.

16. Montreal Canadiens (via Calgary Flames): Lynden Lakovic, LW, Moose Jaw Warriors

In a best-case scenario, the Habs pick a little higher and get a chance at their 2C of the future. I don’t think that’s in the cards for them in this range, though, in which case I think a pro-built winger who can play up and down the lineup and a defenseman probably come into focus for their two picks.

All of Lakovic, Bear, Carbonneau and even Malcolm Spence would fit the winger bill, but with Carbonneau off the board, Lakovic is the most natural fit for what they need to surround guys like Cole Caufield and Ivan Demidov with. I could see them targeting a center like William Moore with their early second-round pick in this scenario, too.

17. Montreal Canadiens: Cameron Reid, LHD, Kitchener Rangers

Of the available D, Reid makes the most sense in terms of both their pool and how they’ve drafted.

18. Calgary Flames (via New Jersey Devils): Cole Reschny, C, Victoria Royals

The belief seems to be that the Flames, who’ve drafted a ton of defensemen and wingers in recent years, are going to be after a center here. Reschny’s combination of skill, smarts and two-way drive makes him a natural fit. They haven’t shied away from taking 5-foot-10/11 players either. This is probably the start of the range (plus or minus a couple) where the much bigger Jack Nesbitt could start to go, too.

19. St. Louis Blues: Carter Bear, LW, Everett Silvertips

In Jimmy Snuggerud and Dalibor Dvorsky, the Blues have legit prospects at right wing and center. In Adam Jiricek and Theo Lindstein, they’ve used a first-round pick in the last two drafts on a D as well. Bear would give them a legit prospect at left wing (Zack Bolduc is a left-shot but plays mostly right wing). If they go D here, Reid could be their guy if he’s available — and would give them something different from Jiricek and Lindstein.

20. Columbus Blue Jackets (via Minnesota Wild): Logan Hensler, RHD, University of Wisconsin

The Blue Jackets double down on D prospects and draft Hensler, once thought to be a top-10 prospect in this class. His game doesn’t have the identity or shape of the D taken ahead of him but he’s going to play in the NHL and should be an effective five-on-five contributor who can help out on both special teams in a pinch. Coincidentally, my comp for Reid is also Denton Mateychuk, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they liked Reid for the same reasons they liked Mateychuk. If they go forward here, Benjamin Kindel is their type and this could be the start of Spence’s range as well.

21. Ottawa Senators: Jack Nesbitt, C, Windsor Spitfires

It has been a while since the Sens drafted a center, and I expect that’s the direction they go with this pick. Nesbitt and Milton Gastrin fit the two-way competitiveness with good size profile they covet more than Kindel or Cullen Potter (who may both be wings at the next level despite their listings as centers).

Lakovic is a winger who really fits their profile, but I doubt he’ll last beyond the teens.

22. Calgary Flames (via Florida Panthers): Benjamin Kindel, C, Calgary Hitmen

The Flames double down on skilled, smart centers and draft from within … their own organization. Reschny and Kindel would immediately give the Flames a potential 2C of the future, and Kindel played his 16-year-old season on the wing and could always move back.

23. Carolina Hurricanes: Cullen Potter, C, Arizona State University

The Canes have a type, or types, and there are a few players in this range that I could see them gravitating toward, including already-picked guys like Reschny, Reid and Kindel. I could see them liking Gastrin as well. But they’re also among the teams that could take a swing on the complicated and mercurial Potter, the best skater in the class.

24. Philadelphia Flyers (via Edmonton Oilers): Malcolm Spence, LW, Erie Otters

After taking one of the hardest-working players in the draft in Martin with their first pick, the Flyers take another one of the hardest-working players in the draft in Spence, who fits their identity and projects as an up-and-down-the-lineup, honest, pro-style top-nine winger.

25. Philadelphia Flyers (via Colorado Avalanche): Milton Gastrin, C, MoDo

If the Flyers want to take a defenseman with one of their three firsts, this is the range and a potential fit for Blake Fiddler. But I think they’ll double down, down the middle. Suddenly, their center depth looks a lot rosier with Martin, Luchanko and Gastrin.

26. Nashville Predators (via Tampa Bay Lightning): Joshua Ravensbergen, G, Prince George Cougars

It might be a tricky PR question to navigate after trading one of the bright young goalies in the sport in Askarov just months ago, but Ravensbergen’s longer-term timeline aligns better with Juuse Saros’ contract and age than Askarov did, and the Preds’ pool does lack a goalie. He makes sense here once you wrap your head around it.

Fiddler could be in play for the Preds, too, who could use a D prospect with his makeup.

27. Los Angeles Kings: Sascha Boumedienne, LHD, Boston University 

After the Kings took a winger in Liam Greentree last year, the belief is that they will take a defenseman or a center this year (if they hold onto their pick). Boumedienne’s skating puts him in this range, but they’re another team that could have interest in Fiddler.

28. San Jose Sharks (via Dallas Stars): Blake Fiddler, RHD, Edmonton Oil Kings

If the Sharks don’t get a chance to take a D with their first pick of the draft, I’d bet they take one with their second. Fiddler gives them a potential middle-pairing guy with length to play behind (or potentially someday complement) the left-handed Dickinson.

29. Chicago Blackhawks (via Toronto Maple Leafs): Shane Vansaghi, C, Michigan State University

The Blackhawks will probably make every effort to package this pick with their seconds and move up if they see an opportunity to, but if they sit tight here, I think you’re looking at some of the bigger, projectable bottom-six forwards available to offset some of the little speedsters they have. Nesbitt’s probably a best-case scenario, but an unlikely one if they don’t move up. Gastrin and William Horcoff could also be of interest. But the idea of the big, strong, powerful Vansaghi on a future fourth line with the big, strong, powerful A.J. Spellacy is pretty appealing, even if this is a little high from a skill standpoint for Vansaghi.

30. Nashville Predators (via Vegas Golden Knights): Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, RW, Luleå HF

The Preds inject more skill with the 6-foot-2 scoring Swedish winger, though defensemen like Fiddler and Boumedienne could be options here if they linger.

31. Washington Capitals: Ivan Ryabkin, C, Muskegon Lumberjacks

The Capitals have drafted boldly in the last couple of years, taking swings on guys like Andrew Cristall, Cole Hutson, Terik Parascak and Ivan Miroshnichenko. I think the Capitals-will-draft-the-Russian knee-jerk reaction over the years has been overstated, so this isn’t about that. But Ryabkin — whose attitude and discipline on and off the ice have most teams planning to steer clear — comes with a ton of risk, and I think their staff is among those who’d be prepared to take it on. Also, their pool is much thinner at center than on the wing. From a talent standpoint, he’s one of the most skilled players left.

32. Winnipeg Jets: William Horcoff, C, University of Michigan

The Jets are another team that would likely be interested in a D late in the first and among those likely to consider names like Boumedienne and Fiddler. If they’re gone, though, I do believe there’s a gap into the next group of D. One name that could enter the mix is London Knights defenseman Henry Brzustewicz, who plays with Jets prospect Jacob Julien there.

If the Jets don’t feel comfortable with the D, Horcoff is a big forward who would give their pool something that’s different from Colby Barlow, Brayden Yager and Brad Lambert up front. He’d be smart to model his game after Adam Lowry, too.

(Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; photos of Brady Martin, Michael Misa and Matthew Schaefer: Dennis Pajot, Claus Andersen, Jonathan Kozub / Getty Images)

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