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Before the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks began their best-of-seven series in the Eastern Conference semifinals, the Celtics were a whopping favorite at the betting window.
It was almost disrespectful.
Boston was as high as -900 in the market, implying around a 90% chance the defending champs would emerge victorious.
It also meant you had to risk $900 to win $100 on the C’s.
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Obviously, New York had other ideas.
The Knicks became the first team since 1998 to erase back-to-back 20-point deficits in a playoff series, and now they’re halfway to the next round.
With upsets come drastic overreactions. And whew, were they plentiful across the sports media landscape on Thursday morning. Apparently, Jayson Tatum lost his mojo, Jaylen Brown forgot how to shoot, Kristaps Porziņģis is a shell of himself and Joe Mazzulla isn’t smart enough to make adjustments.
Got all that?
Despite the hot takes, the Celtics are still favored to advance.
Multiple respected sportsbooks in Las Vegas have Boston at -115 to win four of the next five games, while offshore staple Pinnacle has Boston -124.
“The Celtics are still the best team in the league,” one professional bettor told FOX Sports. “They’re too talented to be counted out. They’ve been through tough times as a group and know how to thrive in adverse situations. It’s also impossible for the entire team to keep shooting this poorly from 3.
“I don’t think there’s a team in the East that will beat Boston as the pressure rises and as the series go deeper. And if the Celtics get through New York, they’ll be fully focused on the task at hand in the next series.
“This would be the time to buy Boston stock.”
The bettor’s take is obviously much more glass half-full than most of the drivel on national television the last 24 hours, but he makes a valid point.
If you’re willing to ignore the noise, the prices are very nice.
Ric Bucher on Knicks’ 2-0 lead vs Celtics & if Warriors are in trouble
Mathematically speaking, you could do some damage if you buy the dip and the Celtics rise to the occasion. We mentioned earlier how they’re around -115 to advance, but let’s examine the bigger picture.
What about the East?
Dare I say NBA title?
If you shop around, you can find Boston as high as +160 to make the NBA Finals and +380 to hoist another Larry O’Brien Trophy. These numbers were substantially more expensive four days ago and the payouts weren’t even close to current prices, which are feeding off the series overreactions.
The Celtics are 5.5-point road favorites in Game 3 at Madison Square Garden, so they’re expected to get a W and dive right back into the mix.
And naturally, that would drive the price back the other way. If the champs win the next two games and head back to Boston tied 2-2, you’re looking at a likely series price of Celtics -350, with home-court advantage back in tow.
Feeling froggy?
I’m willing to make two Boston bets right now. Good luck to us all.
PICK: Celtics (-115) to eliminate Knicks
PICK: Celtics (+380) to win NBA title
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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