MLB roundtable: Is the Cubs’ hot start too good to be true?

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Thosar: Moving Devers from DH to first base doesn’t really solve their Casas problem, because there’s no obvious player to take over DH duties, either. And we’ve seen Devers struggle in the field, so it likely wouldn’t be an easy transition for him, and it could lead to injury since he hasn’t put that physical burden on himself this season. I’ve been impressed with the way Kristian Campbell has handled second base, and he’s playing so well that it’s not out of the question for him to win American League Rookie of the Year, so I think it would be a mistake for the Red Sox to move him to first base and risk messing with his development. For now, the Red Sox should go with what they have (shared playing time between Romy Gonzalez/Abraham Toro) and continue looking for an external option that fits. Yankees fans won’t like it, but veteran first baseman Anthony Rizzo is unsigned and could be worth a shot — at least until more options materialize closer to the trade deadline.

2. The Mariners are in first in the AL West, and the bat of Jorge Polanco has played a significant part of that. He’s already posted a higher wins above replacement than he did in his entire 2024 season, and not only looks to have rebounded from that tough summer, but is hitting better than he ever has. He’s not going to post a 251 OPS+ for the entire season by any means, but how much of what he’s doing should we believe in?

Kavner: If you set the minimum at 90 plate appearances, the only American League hitter with a higher OPS or wRC+ than Polanco is Aaron Judge. The 31-year-old Polanco is somehow doing this while still dealing with some pain in his surgically-repaired knee pain, so consider me skeptical that he stays this red-hot. But the underlying metrics support his production. After some noticeable changes at the plate — most obviously, he has closed off his stance considerably and widened the distance between his feet — Polanco is hitting the ball significantly harder than he ever has before while posting a strikeout rate (11.3%) that’s almost a third of where it was last season (29.3%). The result is the biggest year-over-year jump in batting average and slugging percentage of any qualified player in MLB this year. So, while I don’t think we’re going to end the year still looking at Polanco as a top three hitter in the league, I do believe he could post the best offensive season of his career. That’s saying something for a player who has a 33-homer season under his belt.

Thosar: Polanco’s hot streak is the real deal. At his best, he’s an MVP-caliber player and the Mariners, who know him best, were pretty quick to bring him back to Seattle despite his offseason knee surgery. His “new” knee, so to speak, has allowed him to make necessary adjustments at the plate, and even if the 251 OPS+ isn’t sustainable, his highly-effective closed stance certainly seems like it is. Polanco has been able to catch up to fastballs thanks to his new approach at the plate, which has led to a faster bat speed, which has led to more power, which has led to an elite slugging percentage that’s going toe-to-toe with Aaron Judge. It sure looks like Polanco will receive his first All-Star appearance since 2019.

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3. It’s been obscured a bit by the performances of teams like the Rockies, but the Angels entered play on Tuesday night with a 13-20 record, once again in last place in the AL West. And this despite a high point of four games over .500 less than a month ago. Mike Trout is hurt again, the team spent again but not necessarily wisely, five of their starting nine have negative WAR … what can the Angels even do to stop history from repeating, now and in the future?

Kavner: There are no quick, obvious answers for the struggles. The first probably needs to be a shake-up in player development. Most teams spend years letting their top young talents enhance their skills working their way up the minor league ladder. Then there are the Angels, who continually fast-track their prospects to the big leagues. It works out sometimes, but it also demonstrates a lack of trust in their ability to help players grow and delusional optimism that they are ready to contend every year despite not having made the postseason since 2014 and not having won a playoff game since 2009. They have one of the worst farm systems in baseball by most rankings (made worse by the constant call-ups) and seem to lack a long-term plan beyond hoping Mike Trout stays healthy. Their pipe dreams result in things like what took place in 2023, when they held onto Shohei Ohtani at the deadline, traded their No. 2 and 3 prospects to try to make a push, finished the year with 73 wins and then let Ohtani walk without even trying to match the contract he signed with the Dodgers.

Thosar: I don’t think firing any coaches will help, and general manager Perry Minasian gave a vote of confidence to the Angels staff, indicating there won’t be any cuts on the way. But their outfield production has been a problem; the Halos have the fifth-worst OPS in MLB in that regard (and that’s counting all the solid production from Trout before he got hurt). So they can at least start by looking for external help there, as organizational outfield depth is also low. In the future, I think the Angels have to stop promising their fan base that they’ll field a competitive roster that’s capable of going all the way to the playoffs if they’re not actually serious about it. They made some moves and filled some roster holes, but they didn’t spend in a significant way this offseason, and much of their current predicament was expected before Opening Day. I’d love to see the Angels back up their words with their actions.

4. For opposite reasons, two of the biggest offensive surprises in MLB this year are in the American League West. The Mariners rank in the top five in MLB in runs scored and OPS; the Rangers, conversely, rank in the bottom five in both categories. Which one has been the bigger shock?

Kavner: Considering I thought the Rangers would make it back to the World Series this year, I definitely didn’t expect to see an even worse version of last year’s offense. That said, I still think what Seattle is doing might be even more surprising. The Mariners did almost nothing this offseason to overhaul an offense that ranked last in strikeout rate and expected batting average, 29th in actual batting average, 25th in slugging, 22nd in OPS and 21st in runs scored. They did, however, bring back Jorge Polanco, a move that is rewarding them massively (as we noted above), but the turnaround obviously goes way beyond that for the Mariners to now rank in the top 10 in slugging, OPS and runs scored and in the top half of the league in strikeout rate and batting average.I think the numbers will even out for both teams — I have a hard time believing the Mariners are a top-five offense or that the Rangers are a bottom-five offense by season’s end — but we at least saw some serious regression last year from the Texas lineup after the 2023 explosion. Even after the Mariners’ offensive success late last year following the Edgar Martinez hiring, I couldn’t have predicted that continuing the way it has. Three of the top nine qualified MLB players who have seen the greatest year-over-year jump in batting average — Polanco, Dylan Moore and JP Crawford — play for the Mariners, and we haven’t even gotten to the inevitable Julio Rodriguez hot streak yet.

Thosar: The Rangers. Before the season began, many industry pundits had picked Texas as a favorite to win the division. Fangraphs even gave the Rangers better odds than the Tigers to win the World Series. So from that standpoint, it’s very shocking they have a 85 wRC+ more than a month into the season. We all expected more from Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia, in particular, even if Corey Seager missing some time with yet another injury is not at all surprising. Who could’ve predicted that their offseason acquisitions would be nonexistent, with Jake Burger getting demoted to Triple-A and Joc Pederson batting .114. On paper, the Rangers had the pedigree and star power in their potent lineup to overpower opposing pitching staffs. Instead, it’s been a real shock and an even bigger disappointment.

5. It’s not that the Cubs were expected to play poorly in 2025 following a solid 2024 and the addition of slugger Kyle Tucker, but they’re currently first in the National League in OPS+, and have had above-average pitching to back that offense up. Are they a threat to not just the NL Central, but league-wide? Or is this just some early-season success that’ll eventually stop?

Kavner: When you have the highest-scoring offense in baseball, you’re a legitimate league-wide threat. The dynamism of the Cubs’ lineup combined with the mercurial nature of their pitching staff might make them the most interesting team in baseball. Their bullpen, which ranks 23rd in ERA, doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. The uncertainty in the pitching staff now stretches to the rotation, which will be without Justin Steele for the rest of the year and without leading man Shota Imanaga for at least a couple weeks. No lead feels safe. Then again, no deficit feels insurmountable, either. The offense, which has scored at least 10 runs on eight different occasions, is capable of masking a lot of their issues. Kyle Tucker has given the Cubs the centerpiece they needed, Pete Crow-Armstrong is making the leap to stardom and there are enough dangerous pieces throughout the lineup to continue causing havoc.

Thosar: Even before a single pitch of the 2025 season was thrown, the NL Central was such a weak division that it became the Cubs’ to lose the second they traded for Tucker. Now that they have the hottest offense in baseball, the North Siders look more than prepared to win their first division title (in a full season) since 2017. But I’m still not sold that this team, as currently constructed, is a league-wide threat in part because of their bullpen, which owns a 4.71 ERA that’s ranked 25th in the major leagues. We’ve seen it too many times, where contenders fall apart in October due to a weak relief corps (looking at you, Philly). Don’t get me wrong, the Cubs are solid and improved. But are they World Series contenders? Not just yet. We can revisit this debate if they have a strong trade deadline, though.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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