NBA Draft Lottery 2025: Which teams could benefit most by landing Cooper Flagg with the No. 1 pick

The Cooper Flagg sweepstakes is approaching the finish line. On Monday, fans of the 14 teams with the worst records in the NBA will gather around their screens and hope a franchise-changing star will be available with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft this summer.

Flagg has been the consensus best prospect since he reclassified from the 2025 recruiting class to 2024. He played half of his freshman season at Duke at 17 years old. The CBS Sports Player of the Year won’t turn 19 until Dec. 21. 

In short? Flagg is the real deal. The term “generational talent” gets overused, but Flagg fits the bill. He is the best American-born NBA prospect since Kentucky’s Anthony Davis. No, he isn’t a better prospect than Victor Wembanyama. There may never be another prospect like the San Antonio Spurs superstar. But if we are talking about the one-and-done era in college basketball, Flagg is near the top of the list.

Ranking the best one-and-done college basketball players of the modern era

Cameron Salerno

The good news for basketball fans (and teams that don’t win a high pick in the draft) is that the 2026 NBA Draft class is full of blue-chip talent at the top. The race for the No. 1 pick will likely come down to three players: BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, Kansas’ Darryn Peterson and Duke’s Cameron Boozer.

Ahead of the draft lottery, I decided to take on the task of ranking every team by this simple metric. What team needs Flagg the most right now? Who deserves to have the lottery balls fall their way? 

Note that this list only has 13 teams because the Sacramento Kings, who hold the 13th-best odds of getting No. 1, owe their first-round pick to Atlanta. Unless it lands in the top four, the Hawks will make the selection because it’s top-12 protected. Without further ado, let’s get started!

Tier I: In need of some good mojo

1. Washington Wizards

Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 14%

The Wizards have done things correctly, hence why they’re No. 1 on my rankings. Nothing encapsulates that sentiment than what happened during Game 82 of the NBA season. Washington entered the day in position to finish with the worst record in the association against the Miami Heat. Instead of tanking that game, Washington delivered a 119-118 win after Bub Carrington knocked down a game-winning shot as time expired.

On a personnel front, Washington is building its roster via the draft. Washington selected Carrington, Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George last summer. The Wizards took a swing on Bilal Coulibaly out of France in the 2023 NBA Draft, and he is looking like a true two-way talent you can build around. Putting Flagg in the nation’s capital and pairing him with some of the young players on Washington’s roster would be fun to watch.

2. Charlotte Hornets

Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 14%

The Hornets technically have the third-best odds to land Flagg but have an equal chance with Washington and Utah to land the No. 1 overall pick. If the Hornets don’t win the lottery, my favorite fit for them would be Baylor guard/wing VJ Edgecombe. He would be the perfect pairing to LaMelo Ball in the backcourt because he can play off-ball and defend the best guard on the floor.

The Hornets came close in 2023 to winning the Wemby Sweepstakes, which would’ve changed their franchise forever. Instead, Charlotte selected Brandon Miller with the No. 2 overall pick, which was risky at the time because most had Scoot Henderson as the consensus second-best prospect. The Hornets haven’t made it out of the first round of the playoffs since 2002. Landing Flagg would get the franchise back on track.

3. Utah Jazz 

Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 14%

Utah isn’t higher because of the conference it plays in. Does the NBA need another star in the Western Conference? Probably not. But if it does happen, the Jazz are the most deserving.

The Jazz have completely overhauled a roster that finished with the best record in the West in 2021. Utah traded away Donovan Mitchell to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Rudy Gobert to the Minnesota Timberwolves to kickstart what has been a rebuild under Will Hardy. A frontcourt of Flagg, Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler would be entraining to watch.

4. Brooklyn Nets

Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 9%

In the last 15 years, the Nets have managed to have not one but two failed superteams. The Nets signaled the franchise was ready to bottom out and rebuild by trading away Mikal Bridges to the New York Knicks last summer.

Flagg would be the face of the franchise immediately. He would also change the complexion of the Nets timeline, which would get sped up if Brooklyn lands the No. 1 overall pick. The Nets have needed a star since the franchise traded away Kevin Durant to Phoenix. Flagg would fit the bill.

Tier II: Don’t feel bad for Nico Harrison

5. Dallas Mavericks

Percent chance of winning overall pick: 1.8%

Does Mavs GM Nico Harrison deserve Flagg? No. Does the Mavericks fan base deserve another homegrown star after their GM traded away a top-five player in the NBA? Yes.

Flagg next to Anthony Davis would be incredible to watch. With the status of Kyrie Irving for the 2025-26 season in question due to an injury suffered late in the season, winning the lottery and landing Flagg would take away the pain (temporally) of losing Luka Dončić. The Mavs are in their own tier for that reason only.

Tier III: Sure, why not?

6. Chicago Bulls

Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 1.7%

The last time the Bulls won a playoff series, you have to go back to 2015. Since then, Chicago has won five total games in the NBA Playoffs. The Bulls are frequent flyers in the Play-in Tournament. Landing Flagg would potentially change that and give the city hope.

The Bulls haven’t committed to a full rebuild under their current ownership group. Chicago has won over 39 games in each of the last four seasons. Getting Flagg would be a step in the right direction if the goal is to avoid the Play-in.

7. Sacramento Kings

Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 0.8%

It’s important to note that the Kings will likely not be making their own first-round pick this summer. If this pick falls inside the top four (3.8% ) chance, Sacramento keeps its pick. If it lands at No. 13 (likely), the pick will convey to the Hawks. Even though the Hawks have the Kings’ pick, they can’t win the draft lottery.

The Kings need defense desperately. Flagg would solve most of their issues and be a nice fit next to Domantas Sabonis in the frontcourt. Kings fans have suffered for the better part of the last two decades, with just one playoff appearance since 2007.

8. New Orleans Pelicans

Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 12.5%

The Pelicans aren’t higher because the franchise won the NBA Draft Lottery back in 2019, which allowed them to select Duke superstar Zion Williamson. One of the most hyped-up prospects of this generation has had an up-and-down NBA career full of highs and lows. When Williamson plays, he is a star.

New Orleans is an interesting spot heading into the offseason. Could this be the offseason Williamson gets traded? The Pelicans had the worst injury luck of any team in the association, hence the massive regression from last season. If the Pelicans keep Williamson and land Flagg, it would pair two of the best players from Duke.

9. Portland Trail Blazers

Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 3.7%

Portland is on the doorstep of taking the next step toward playoff contention. Portland drafted Donovan Clingan last summer, and he looks like the long-term center. Henderson, the former No. 3 pick in the NBA Draft, is a potential breakout candidate next season. Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons is a talented backcourt.

The Trail Blazers have won the NBA Draft Lottery once. That came in 2007 when the franchise selected Greg Oden over Kevin Durant. Like most lottery teams, landing Flagg would speed up the timeline.

10. Toronto Raptors

Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 7.5%

I don’t know what direction Toronto is going in. After trading Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, it appeared the Raptors were heading toward a full-on rebuild. Toronto won 25 games last season and went 30-52 during the 2024-25 campaign. On the surface, it does look like Toronto is going in that direction, but its payroll says otherwise.

The Raptors traded for Brandon Ingram at the deadline and signed him to a lengthy contract extension. Immanuel Quickley will make $32.5 million next season. Scottie Barnes recently signed a long-term extension, and RJ Barrett and Jakob Poetl are on the books for the next two seasons. I don’t know if landing Flagg would push the Raptors into another tier in the East.

11. Houston Rockets

Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 3.8% (via Phoenix)

Houston’s season ended last weekend with a Game 7 loss to the Golden State Warriors. Houston took a significant step forward and earned the No. 2 seed in the West, but tough decisions will need to be made to take another leap.

Amen Thompson appears to be a franchise building block for Houston. Alperen Şengün made the NBA All-Star team for the first time. After those two players, everyone else could be hypothetically available to take another jump. The Rockets don’t need Flagg to take another step toward contention. It would be a luxury to win the lottery, but consolidating some of their other pieces for a star could be the move.

Tier IV: Too many stars are already on the roster

12. Philadelphia 76ers

Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 10.5%

The 76ers already have Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey on their roster. Bad injury luck was the main reason for regression this season. Getting Embiid back to health will help the 76ers get out of the lottery next season.

It’s important to note that if this pick falls outside the top six on the night of the lottery, the Oklahoma City Thunder will receive the selection instead. The 76ers have the sixth best chance to land the No. 1 pick.

Tier V: Stop being greedy, you have Wemby already

13. San Antonio Spurs

Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 6% (own) and 0.7% (via Atlanta)

If you’re a basketball sicko or a fan of the Spurs, then sure, root for this outcome. If you don’t fall into that category, then you should be rooting for anyone but the Spurs to win the lottery. San Antonio has two chances to get No. 1, with its first-round pick and the pick from the Hawks.

San Antonio was blessed with the No. 1 overall pick in 2023, which meant being able to select Wembanyama. Former UConn star Stephon Castle fell to No. 4 last summer to San Antonio, and he went on to become NBA Rookie of the Year. Flagg will likely be the heavy favorite to capture Rookie of the Year. The Spurs could (hypothetically) have back-to-back-to-back ROTYs on their roster. Flagg/Wembanyama/Flagg would be a lethal defensive trio.