The 2025 NFL Draft is over and we have spent the last couple of weeks focusing on the rookies and how they will impact the veterans on their respective teams. But the conclusion of the draft also signals the start of something else, Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts season. Early May is typically when we release our first version of these articles, and while plenty will change in the next four months, I also expect you will gain some insights that will last until September.
When we get to August I will base my bust list on where guys are getting drafted. I use consensus rankings in May, because that is one of the best indicators of where players will be drafted. Busts are draft capital relative,12 points per game from your first round pick is a bust, but just fine if you took the guy in Round 6, and awesome if you drafted him in Round 10. With that in mind, I am highlighting five players in the top 48 who I don’t believe will live up to their draft capital and five more in the next 48 who may not give you anything at all.
We should start by addressing the two elephants on the bust list, Josh Allen and Derrick Henry.
I have nothing bad to say about either player. They’re both likely to end up in Canton one day. Henry is the active leader in rush attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. He’s also 31 years old. His early consensus ranking is 8th overall. I cannot draft a 31-year-old running back in Round 1 of a Fantasy Football draft. I also do not think you should. Of course, I didn’t think you should last year either, and Henry finished RB4 and justified the cost. The problem is that is the best case scenario, maybe he just barely lives up to his ADP. The downside is far more pronounced.
Allen is another phenomenal player who looks like a repeat on my bust list. He’s being ranked as QB1 at the two-three turn, and I don’t really like either of those. Last year I ranked Allen as QB4 due to concerns about the offense and his weapons. In CBS scoring, he finished as QB3 and in CBS scoring he finished as QB3, and there were some troubling signs that have nothing to do with his skillset. He threw 483 passes, his lowest mark since 2019, and he ran the ball 102 times, his lowest mark since 2020. Few quarterbacks have any chance of finishing top 3 with that volume. Allen did it because he’s awesome, but it’s a narrow path to QB3, much less QB1. I prefer Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson, I think you can make a solid argument for Joe Burrow. Maybe more importantly, with so many good options I don’t really want to take any QB before pick 36.
Here are eight more players who make my early bust list based on consensus rankings:
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