- Brian Thomas Jr. found his rhythm: Over the last seven weeks, Thomas consistently scored fantasy points and had the third-most points among wide receivers during that stretch.
- Liam Coen could unlock another level: Thomas was elite when lined up in the slot, and Coen’s slot receivers have consistently put up a lot of fantasy points.
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Using PFF’s exclusive data, we evaluate player performance, competition for touches and how teammates and coaching staffs will impact each player’s fantasy football outlook.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Friday, May 9
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Player performance
Brian Thomas Jr. was the 23rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Preseason usage suggested he was already among the top wide receivers on the depth chart, as him and Gabe Davis were the primary outside receivers, while Christian Kirk played in three-receiver sets in the slot. During the first four weeks, he consistently played between 73-78% of the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ offensive snaps, while the other snaps often went to Parker Washington in three-receiver sets. Even with the somewhat limited snaps, he was off to an excellent start with 275 yards and three touchdowns, leading to the 14th-most fantasy points.
Despite the strong play, the Jaguars started limiting Thomas’ snaps a little further, playing under 66% of his team’s offensive snaps in three of the following four games. He suffered a chest injury in Week 8 and was limited in practice the following three weeks, but despite this, his playing time shot up to at least 84% of the offensive snaps in eight of the final nine games of the season because Kirk and Davis suffered season-ending injuries.
The chest injury hindered Thomas’ play, but once he was off the injury report, he was one of the top fantasy receivers. In his final seven games, he gained at least 13 PPR points each week and averaged 21.5 points, third behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua. It’s worth noting that his strong play at the end of the season came entirely with Mac Jones at quarterback.
Thomas ended the season with 2.45 yards per route run and 0.534 PPR points per route, both among the top five for wide receivers. He was particularly strong against zone defenses, where his 2.6 yards per route run ranked fourth best. While Thomas has the body of an X receiver, he was elite when playing out of the slot.
Projected role
The Jaguars moved on from Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis and added a few reinforcements at wide receiver. Jacksonville added Travis Hunter with the second overall pick and Dyami Brown in free agency. Parker Washington played a significant role in the Jaguars’ offense last season and will round out the depth chart.
The wide receiver room will have a lot of flexibility in how the wide receivers are utilized. Hunter will likely be a Z receiver in the NFL and can stay in that role while also learning the defense. Thomas and Washington can play any of the three receiving positions, and Brown can play either of the outside positions. This can allow the team to be flexible with Hunter’s playing time while he also plays on defense, allowing them to move Thomas around the formation to create great matchups.
Jacksonville also moved on from long-time tight end Evan Engram, allowing Brenton Strange to move up the depth chart. This should all add up to Thomas maintaining a very high target rate, even if Hunter can emerge as an elite receiver. Brown, Washington and Davis have all maintained relatively low target rates in their careers. While Strange and the running backs should have a respectable number of targets, it won’t be overbearing. This means Thomas could be in the 25-30% range while Hunter is in the 20-25% range. The Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants had similar splits between their first and second wide receivers last season, and several others were similar when accounting for injury.
Thomas fantasy managers should only be concerned if Hunter ends up being the top player on the depth chart, or some other receiving weapon emerges in an unexpected way.
Impact of teammates
The Jaguars now have Liam Coen as their new head coach. He’s been the offensive coordinator for both the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While the below chart on Coen shows few similarities between the two offenses he was a part of, one similarity was the dominance of their slot receivers. In 2022, Cooper Kupp only played nine games, but in those games, he led the league in fantasy points per game at 22.4. Kupp lined up in the backfield or the slot for 53.1% of his snaps. In 2024, Chris Godwin played seven games, and in that time, he averaged 19.7 PPR points per game. Godwin lined up in the slot on 61.7% of his snaps.
Among the wide receivers that are 6-foot-1 or taller, 205 pounds or heavier and have at least 100 routes from the slot over the last three seasons, Thomas, Kupp and Godwin all rank top seven in fantasy points per route, and Thomas tops the list. At the combine, Coen mentioned the pass game will run through Thomas, and he mentioned his ability to move around and play in the slot. It’s possible that Thomas dominates from the slot, and Travis Hunter can also find success. Godwin was a top fantasy option, but Mike Evans was 21st in fantasy points per game over the first seven weeks while Godwin was still healthy in Coen’s offense last season.
The big concern for Thomas is Trevor Lawrence. It’s hard to ignore that the bulk of Thomas’ success occurred last season after Lawrence was injured, although that’s not entirely fair since Thomas didn’t see a snap increase until Lawrence was injured. Lawrence helped Christian Kirk to a WR12 finish in 2022 and Calvin Ridley to a WR18 finish in 2023, but his accuracy still hasn’t been as strong as you would like to see. The good news is that Lawrence has enjoyed throwing to the middle of the field, and Thomas should be the top target for Jacksonville in the middle.
Bottom line
Thomas deserves to be among the first-round fantasy picks this season, but he will be one of the riskiest picks in the round. He could be the best slot receiver Liam Coen’s had, in which case, the top overall fantasy wide receiver is within the realm of possibility. It’s also possible Lawrence doesn’t adjust well to Coen’s offense, and Travis Hunter becomes the Jaguars’ top wide receiver.
Footnotes
- Statistics in tables and charts were chosen based on their ability to predict future fantasy performance on a per-game or per-opportunity basis or to describe the player relative to others at the same position.
- “Opportunities” are defined as passing dropbacks, rushing attempts and routes run as a receiver.
- Numbers are provided either by season or based on the past three years. For rookies, only college statistics are included. For non-rookies, only NFL statistics are considered, regardless of whether they played in college within the previous three years.
- As college competition is easier than NFL competition, most rookies are likely to see a decline from their historical numbers.
- Only FBS data is considered for college players and comparisons.
- Kneel-downs are removed from rushing data to provide cleaner quarterback rushing rate statistics.
- The table colors in this article range from blue (indicating good/high) to red (indicating bad/low).
- All percentiles and color codings compare the given player to others with a high sample of opportunities. Generally, the cutoff is one-third of the possible opportunities in the sample. If a player does not meet the threshold, they are still included in the comparison, though their results may appear better or worse than expected due to the smaller, less predictive sample size.
- Information on utilization classifications and their importance can be found here for running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.
This news was originally published on this post .
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