The most intriguing wagers around Cubs-Mets, Knicks-Celtics and more this weekend

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Welcome to the Opening Line, where we look at ways to have a little fun identifying intriguing wagers on the upcoming weekend’s biggest events. Today, we’ve got both NBA and NHL playoff action, a weekend series between high-profile MLB division leaders and the latest chapter of arguably the greatest rivalry in sports. Let’s get to it!

(All odds referenced as of Friday morning.)

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets

Friday, 10 p.m. EST

ESPN

The Bet: Russell Westbrook Over 13.5 points (+100)

While I wasn’t quite courtside, watching OKC absolutely destroy Denver Wednesday night made me think that after all these years, there is finally an NBA team that is actually as good as Russell Westbrook thinks he is. I’m extraordinarily thankful for the unbelievable finishes we are seeing in the Eastern Conference right now, but the “is this the best NBA Playoffs ever?” conversation is about to run smack into the reality that, barring injuries, no one is beating this Thunder team four times in seven games. Grab their +130 to win the title odds now, and add a few things to your Amazon wish list to buy yourself in June.

But in the meantime, there are still lots of games to watch and wagers to win, which brings us back to our old pal Russ. The intense attention Nikola Jokic draws creates a perfect betting storm, as teams are aggressively doubling the reigning MVP, smartly daring the former MVP to beat them. But it’s like daring a theatre kid to sing at karaoke – Westbrook was going to do it anyway. Seizing the opportunity, he’s scored 14-plus points in seven out of eight playoff games thus far, only falling short after being limited to nine minutes in a 34-point loss to the Clippers. So plug your ears, cover your eyes and cash this ticket every remaining game of this series.

Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

Friday, 7:10 p.m. EST

MLB.TV

The Bet: Over 7.5 Runs (-115)

It’s the New York home game that’s got the sports world abuzz this weekend! Okay, maybe more eyeballs will be on Madison Square Garden, but this battle of two top teams is a worthy appetizer, and with Cubs pitchers disappearing faster than Spinal Tap drummers, I like the Overs to hit all weekend long.

Juan Soto has been activated in May like someone stepped on a Cordycep root, rocking a 1.339 OPS and bursting through barricades to swarm opposing staffs. It’s no surprise then that five out of the last six Mets games have gone over the modest 7.5 total for Friday night’s showdown, and the Cubs are no stranger to shootouts themselves, with five of their last seven games clearing the same mark. To pile on, Jameson Taillon’s ERA was more than two runs worse away from Wrigley last season (4.58 vs. 2.18), and he’s picking up right where he left off, with an even greater gap so far this season. Given these trends, the 7.5 number, which is tied for the lowest line across all MLB action tonight, is almost certainly a rat line, but every once in a while, you gotta eat some cheese.

Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EST

ABC

The Bet: New York Knicks 4th Quarter Winner (+106)

Let’s take a moment and reflect on the very best feelings in the world. A cool breeze kissing your skin on a summer vacation. The very first bite of a perfectly prepared Thanksgiving dinner. The key change kicking in on your favorite song while riding with the roof off in a Jeep. At the moment, that’s the exact opposite of how it feels to watch the Boston Celtics play basketball in the fourth quarter.

The numbers are obviously really bad, but actually witnessing it is even worse. The lack of movement, the carelessness, the contested stepback 3s are all legitimately jarring, and it creates a tremendous level of cognitive dissonance as you can’t possibly figure out how they got up 20 in the first place. And it comes from the top down, as Jayson Tatum is shooting them directly out of games. Thank goodness they won the title last year, or I’m not sure he could come back from this. Not since Sauron has someone been so protected by a single ring.

To make things worse, the Knicks have been like Hulk Hogan in a 1980s wrestling match, as the Celtics’ early-game blows bounce off of them, only making them more powerful. Which brings us to our bet – outside of some form of reversion to the mean, give me one reason this is going to get better in Game 3 as the series shifts to Gotham. Do you remember how incredible the MSG playoff crowds were last year? They’ve been waiting for this series for generations, and the hostile environment will only accelerate the Celtics’ late-game mental declines. At present, this is like Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer playing flashlight tag against Bane, and it’s hard to believe you can get plus money in the fourth quarter on the team molded by the dark.

Washington Capitals vs. Carolina Hurricanes

Saturday, 6 p.m. EST

TNT

The Bet: Double Chance (Regular Time) – Capitals or Tie (-110)

Here is my confession – I’m a playoffs-only hockey fan. Not sure I recommend it, as it’s like getting all your medical care in The Pitt. But y’all that can handle this level of intensity constantly are the sickos. I’d rather attend the Johnny Utah School of Skydiving than have to sit through more than a handful of hockey overtimes a year.

Take the Capitals and Hurricanes series, where the margins have been razor thin. While the Canes have outshot the Caps 61 to 35 (and those are just the ones on goal), they have trailed for much longer than they’ve led thus far, and Washington is a Logan Thompson glove save away from being in command. Overall, it never feels like either team will get a meaningful lead. In fact, after two games, the teams have been separated by more than a goal for less than nine minutes total. So, given the perpetual tightness we’ve seen so far and the somewhat randomizing effect these low scores can have on the results, it feels good to get two of the three possible regular time outcomes and not have to even worry about OT for once.

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid

Sunday, 10:15 a.m. EST

ESPN

The Bet: Half with most goals – Second Half (-120)

If the ability to perform miracles is part of the job requirement, Jan Summer should clearly have been the next pope. Holy smoke, what a Champions League game Barcelona played on Tuesday versus Inter Milan, and it seems borderline cruel that they now have to rally against Real Madrid a few days later. But the relentless drumbeat of the spring soccer calendar crunch marches on, and we are now treated to an El Clásico with the La Liga title hanging in the balance.

Barça enters the game as favorites, a direct testament to Lamine Yamal storming the world stage with Will Smith-esque purpose and flair. Yet, we can’t call his rapid rise unprecedented as the last two talents to stake a teenage claim to the title of world’s best join him on the pitch. With Kylian Mbappé and Jude Bellingham leading the Real attack, it’s hard to believe the Galacticos are +240 underdogs, and based purely on the value, they are the better side to back. But with key injuries across their defense (including to Antonio Rudiger, who might be the only man alive who could defeat 100 gorillas), the better (and more fun) play actually comes in the form of goal-related bets.

In that spirit, a draw does very little for Madrid, as this is their best chance to make up the four-point deficit with only four games to play, so expect the desperation to pick up as the clock advances, which also just happens to be exactly how Barcelona naturally approaches big matches. Further, in the last four epics between the clubs, second-half goals have outnumbered early strikes 12-4, making it easy to lay the -120. It seems written in the stars, as not even the dessert course at a Real Housewives dinner compares with El Clásico when it comes to late drama.

Toby Mergler is a freelance contributor to the Athletic and is the co-founder of the Extra Points Podcast Network. He’s hosted podcasts for ESPN and served as a columnist for Vice Sports, MLB.com and ESPN Page 2. He would tell you where he got his degrees, but the school offered him a sweetheart deal to actually erase his name, image and likeness.

(Photo: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

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