Three best NBA player props, odds for Friday, May 9: Use Evan Mobley, Christian Braun in NBA Playoff picks

Few would have expected the Indiana Pacers to return home with a 2-0 series lead over the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, but the second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs has featured many surprises. But given how well road teams have played over the last week, Indiana could stumble at home in an ever-important Game 3 to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder responded from their Game 1 loss with a 43-point victory over the Nuggets in Game 2 as they return to Denver with the series tied 1-1 for a 10 p.m. ET start. Nikola Jokic, who averaged a triple-double in the regular season and in the first round against the Clippers, has failed to post a triple-double in either of the first two games against the Thunder. 

He has +110 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to record a triple-double for Friday NBA player prop bets. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored at least 33 points in each of the first two games for the Thunder this series, and his total points over/under is set for 32.5, so how should he factor into Friday NBA prop picks?

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.

Evan Mobley Over 2.5 assists (-105)

The model projects Mobley at 2.9 assists and he’s averaging 3.1 assists per game this season, so the chance to play this less than the traditional -110 odds presents value for Oh. Mobley (ankle) is questionable and missed Game 2 with the injury, but given the importance of avoiding going down 3-0, Oh expects Mobley to do all he can to play. The injury could even lower his mobility and aggressiveness to score, which would help his assist total.

“This line is set low because this season, his average is much lower on the road (2.7) than at home (3.4), and his Over rate is just 47.4% (vs. 68.4% at home),” Oh said. “But I see a player who is ‘due’ coming in on a 5-1 Under stretch, prior to which he had seven straight Overs and 16-5 if you extend it back to late February.” 

Other sportsbooks have these odds at -110 or greater, while BetMGM is offering the best odds at -105, and you can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if you bet there now.

Andrew Nembhard Under 22.5 points + assists + rebounds (-110)

Nembhard has gone Over this number in the first two games of the series, but the Pacers also vastly overperformed expectations in both contests. Indiana taking a 2-0 lead back home is truly shocking and Nembard’s play is a significant reason for that. But there’s a reason Cleveland went 64-18 this season and the model projects a stronger performance from the Cavaliers on Friday.

Nembhard has gone Under his total PRA in four of his last five home games with the Pacers as the underdog, averaging a PRA total of 16.4 in those contests. He went Under this total in each of his final two regular-season games against Cleveland and never had a PRA total of more than 25 over four regular-season contests against the Cavaliers. 

Caesars Sportsbook is offering the best odds at -110 while other betting apps have juiced the odds to the -115, -120 range. Bet it now at Caesars, where if you bet $1, you can double your winnings on your next 10 bets.

Christian Braun Over 1.5 blocks + steals (+100)

Although Braun has failed to go Over this number in four straight games, Oh views this as more of a buy-low opportunity with plus-money value rather than a concerning trend he expects to continue. Braun went Over this number in four of his first five playoff games before the current Under streak and he averaged 1.6 blocks + steals during the season. Braun struggled and only played 26 minutes in Game 2 in a one-sided affair, but after playing 40 minutes in Game 1 and playing at least 37 minutes in seven of nine games this postseason, Oh expects a stronger all-around performance on Friday as Denver returns home for Game 3.

“It’s human (or referee) nature to allow home teams with championship pedigree to get away with defensive aggressiveness that would be called fouls in the regular season,” Oh said. “The Celtics were getting away with aggravated assault in Game 2 vs. the Knicks and that should help Braun get away with a few wrist slaps that lead to steals and blocks instead of fouls, especially early in the game.”

Want more NBA picks for tonight?

1. You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Friday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
2. You can also view expert betting advice before making Friday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks. He’s 119-90-1 (+1994) over his last 210 NBA picks and he already has a pick locked in for Friday.
3. SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Mike Barner, who is 158-107 (+3263) over his last 265 NBA player props picks. Visit SportsLine now to see who Barner is including in his NBA picks for Friday.