Houston Astros starter Hunter Brown will try to continue his excellent start to the season when he takes the mound against the Cincinnati Reds on Friday at Daikin Park in Houston. With a win, Brown (5-1, 1.67 ERA) would become the fourth six-game winner in the majors. He will square off against Cincinnati righty Nick Martinez (1-3, 4.19).
Sportsbooks have set Brown’s total strikeout player prop at 6.5 (Over -145, Under +110), while Martinez’s is 4.5 (Over +120, Under -155). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, has run its projections for the Brown-Martinez matchup and does not include a play on either pitcher among its top three pitcher strikeout props for Frirday.
However, the model has found value elsewhere on Friday’s 15-game schedule. There are two pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 5 stars, including one that would pay plus-money, as well as another rated at 4.5 stars. Here they are:
Hunter Dobbins Over 3.5 strikeouts (+110) vs. Royals (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.0 strikeouts
A 25-year-old righty from Texas, Dobbins (2-1, 3.78) has been solid in his rookie season with the Red Sox. He won each of his first two starts, striking out 11 over 11.0 innings in the process. Though he lost his last start, a 4-3 defeat to the Twins, Dobbins still ranks in the 92nd percentile in chase percentage, according to Baseball Savant. On Friday he faces a punchless Kansas City team that averages the fourth-fewest runs per game (3.6) in the majors.
Antonio Senzatela Over 2.5 strikeouts (+112) vs. Padres (8:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 3.4 strikeouts
Senzatela (1-5, 5.50) has admittedly struggled this season, having allowed four or more runs in four of his last five starts. However, the model finds this a low number at plus-money. He has gone Over this number in four of his seven starts this season, including his last two. On Friday he will face a San Diego team that struck out 11 times in Wednesday’s 4-3 loss to the Yankees.
Roki Sasaki Over 3.5 strikeouts (-144) vs. Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 7 strikeouts
The projections say that this number is way off and that Sasaki doubles the total, with seven strikeouts. Signed by the Dodgers in the offseason, the highly touted 23-year-old righty from Japan finally picked up his first MLB win in his last start, a 10-3 victory over the Braves. Though he has struggled with walks, he has electric stuff and has gone Over this total in four of his last five starts.
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