What’s gone right and wrong for Hurricanes vs. Capitals in NHL playoffs Round 2

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WASHINGTON — While the Washington Capitals showed improvement in Game 2 of the second round, the Carolina Hurricanes left the nation’s capital feeling like they weren’t at their best.

“We weren’t, certainly, great, that’s for sure,” Hurricanes coach Rod Brind’Amour said after his team’s 3-1 loss Thursday in Washington. “And I think you’ve got to give Washington credit. They played a much better game.”

Game 2 certainly wasn’t the territorial mauling of Game 1, when Carolina had more than three-quarters of the shot attempts a five-on-five along with a 35-15 scoring chances advantage, including 18-9 at high danger. Still, the Hurricanes returned to Raleigh, N.C., with a split against a team that had lost only nine times in regulation at home in the regular season.

“We’d love to be up two,” Hurricanes captain Jordan Staal said after Game 2. “But it’s a good team, and we’re going to have to start fresh at home here and take it to them again.”

What will that entail? Carolina will want to replicate much of what it did during the first two games of the series while improving other aspects of its game for the two matchups at Lenovo Center.

The Good

Match Washington’s physicality: The presence of Tom Wilson gives the Capitals the schoolyard bully in most any playoff series. The veteran forward is big, mean and often reckless, a combination that has opponents looking over their shoulder when No. 43 bears down on them on the forecheck.

The Hurricanes, however, have managed to match Washington’s team toughness through two games.

Despite having the puck for most of the two games in Washington — the Hurricanes have 69.48 percent of the five-on-five shot attempts so far in the series, according to NaturalStatTrick.com — Carolina outhit the Capitals 44-31 in Game 1 and 17-16 in a much tamer Game 2.

“You’ve got to be physical,” Hurricanes forward William Carrier, who has nine hits in the first two games in 16:58 of ice time, said the morning before Game 2. “No penalties, be smart, get on their D and try to create some offense out of it.”

Even Logan Stankoven — all 5 feet, 8 inches and 165 pounds of him — was in the middle of the fray after the horn in Game 2.

Dictate play: Carolina has dominated possession for five of the six regulation periods in the series, along with Game 1’s overtime. The only time Washington carried play was in the second period of Game 2, buoyed by Connor McMichael’s breakaway goal that gave the Capitals a lead they never relinquished.

“They got some momentum and they got some confidence,” Staal said, “and they started playing their game and we started to get on our heels a little bit.”

It will get tougher for the Capitals, who won’t have the benefit of the final line change when the series shifts to Raleigh for Games 3 and 4. While Washington had only nine regulation losses (15 with overtime and shootout losses) at Capital One Arena during the regular season, Carolina was even better at home — 31-9-1, matching the Kings for the most home wins in the NHL this season.

The Hurricanes outscored opponents by 26 goals at five-on-five at home, compared to giving up 17 more than they scored on the road. In all situations, Carolina had 155 goals at home while allowing 101. The Capitals were a better road team than the Hurricanes during the regular season, but they struggled some in Round 1 against the Canadiens and will have Brind’Amour dictating the matchups in the next two games.

Don’t lose special teams: Last season against the Rangers, Carolina allowed a pair of power-play goals in Games 1 and 2 in one-goal losses while scoring just twice in 21 opportunities during the entire series. The Hurricanes were outscored 4-2 on the power play in a four-game sweep by the Panthers in the 2023 Eastern Conference final. They were at a 7-3 disadvantage in a seven-game loss to the Rangers the year before, 7-2 against Tampa Bay in 2021, 5-2 in a five-game loss to Boston in 2020 and 7-2 in another conference final sweep, this time to Boston in 2019.

You get the point: If you look back at the Hurricanes’ playoff exits under Brind’Amour, it was often special teams that felled them.

So while the Hurricanes haven’t done anything eye-popping on special teams through two games of this series, they’ve held their own — and history shows that should be enough. Washington ended Carolina’s 19-for-19 run with John Carlson’s third-period goal in Game 2, but the Hurricanes’ power play responded on its next chance with a goal by Shayne Gostisbehere.

For the series, Washington’s power play is 1-for-5, while Carolina is 1-for-6. Not great, but not awful. Given how tilted play has been at five-on-five, the Hurricanes probably just need to break even on special teams and wait for all their even-strength opportunities to turn into goals.

The Bad

Snake eyes: Outside of the bounce that led to Gostisbehere’s power-play goal in Game 2, Carolina hasn’t had the hockey gods on its side so far in the series.

The McMichael goal was triggered when Hurricanes defenseman Sean Walker’s backhanded dump-in struck partner Gostisbehere, stunning him while McMichael broke into open ice and finished his opportunity — a goal that swung momentum in Washington’s favor.

“Yeah, that’s not ideal,” Staal said. “You take one in the face, and they go for a breakaway. That stuff happens.”

A thing that also happens: shots off the post.

In Game 1, the Hurricanes hit the post or crossbar five times. Carolina hit the post twice more in Game 2 (though the Capitals had three posts of their own on Thursday).

Maybe this is what happens when you play one of the NHL’s “luckiest” teams.

Washington led the league in five-on-five shooting percentage at 12.62 percent in the regular season. A late-season goaltending tumble kept the Capitals’ PDO — the combination of shooting percentage and save percentage at five-on-five — from being the league’s “luckiest” team, but they were still fourth in the league in the statistical category.

Washington hasn’t had any such problem in goal in the first two games of the series, with Logan Thompson stopping 58 of 61 shots (.951 save percentage) in the first two games. His similar performance at home in the first round (.953 save percentage) didn’t, however, carry over to the road: In two games in Montreal, Thompson allowed seven goals on 46 shots (.848 save percentage).

Svechnikov vs. Wilson: Coming into the series, I thought Wilson and Andrei Svechnikov would be the pivotal matchup. If Svechnikov outplayed the Capitals’ alternate captain, Carolina would win. If Wilson could outshine Svechnikov, Washington would advance.

There are seven rounds in this prize fight, and each heavyweight has won a round through two games. While Svechnikov was without a point in Game 1, he was dominant: 12 shot attempts, three shots on goal and an on-ice Corsi count of 33 for versus just six against.

Wilson’s line took the brunt of that, with the Capitals forward being on the ice for just one shot on goal at five-on-five in Game 1. Make that a 10-9 round for Svechnikov.

Game 2 went the other way. Svechnikov finished with five shot attempts with just one on goal, while Wilson had two points and three shots on net. He also made a few key blocks, even joking with reporters after the game that “the guys up top need to pay a little more attention” since he was only credited with two. Round 2 to Wilson, but an empty-net goal doesn’t equal a knockdown — 10-9.

Svechnikov was nearly unstoppable in the Devils series, and the Hurricanes will need that player back for Game 3 and beyond to best the Capitals.

Top-line production: If you don’t want everyone to talk about how you can’t score in the playoffs, you need to score in the playoffs.

Through two games this round, the top line of Svechnikov and Jackson Blake flanking Sebastian Aho has been held without a five-on-five point. Aho has nine points through seven playoff games, but only two have come at five-on-five. Two of Svechnikov’s five goals are at five-on-five, but that’s it. Blake has three five-on-five points but is without a point in any situation through two games of this series.

The quick fix might be moving Seth Jarvis back to the top line. Aho has made it clear that he feels Jarvis is the player best suited to play alongside him. And with the final change at his disposal, Brind’Amour could reunite Aho with him and Blake, let one of Logan Stankoven or William Carrier fill the checking role on Staal’s wing opposite Jordan Martinook and put Svechnikov with Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Taylor Hall.

That was how Carolina started the postseason until an adjustment by New Jersey coach Sheldon Keefe to separate Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt led Brind’Amour to balance out his lines a bit more by putting the current lines together in Game 4 of that series.

Jarvis has five points but none at five-on-five in the playoffs. A reunion with Aho, especially on home ice against preferred opponents, could be precisely what he needs.

(Photo: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)

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