With Steph Curry sidelined, Warriors are in deep trouble as Wolves find footing

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I’m old enough to remember when white smoke being released into the air just meant Jason Williams highlights made the “SportsCenter” Top 10 that night. I’m old enough to remember when white smoke being released into the air meant Steve Blake just fought in practice. I’m old enough to remember when white smoke being released into the air meant Darko Miličić had a great draft workout. (I couldn’t decide, so I went with all of them.)

No Muck, No Glory

Wolves didn’t screw it up last night

The Timberwolves have a tendency to play down to their competition, so there was concern they wouldn’t take care of business when the Warriors are missing Steph Curry. Factor in that they’ve had some weird losses at home this season, and it wasn’t a sure thing they’d just beat down the Warriors in Game 2 – especially after losing Game 1 despite Curry only playing 13 minutes before straining his hammy.

At least for last night, it took the Wolves a bit to pull away from the Warriors. A dominant first quarter didn’t turn into a dominant second or third quarter, and there was the concern that an Anthony Edwards ankle injury toward the end of the first half might even the playing field for Minnesota with its superstar also being out. But eventually, the Wolves found the combination to keep the Warriors at bay for the 117-93 win.

That’s the challenge for the Warriors over the next two games, if not more: How do they slow down the Wolves enough to make this close? How do they muck up the game enough to have Minnesota out of rhythm in a tight contest in crunch time? The Wolves shot horribly from 3-point range from Game 2 of the Lakers series through the Game 1 loss to the Warriors. Over that five-game stretch, the Wolves shot 25.4 percent from deep. They still won three of those five games, but it was a vulnerability they had to overcome.

Their good moments came in spurts. That wasn’t the case last night. We still didn’t see a big game from Edwards, especially after the ankle injury, but the Wolves shot 16-of-37 (43.2 percent) from deep in Game 2. So the Warriors couldn’t even take advantage of poor outside shooting.

Minnesota took care of business the way it was supposed to — a much more focused effort instead of complacency and playing down to the competition. Now, it’s on the Warriors to find a way to play up to their competition. Jimmy Butler had 17 points on 13 shot attempts. He has to force the issue. Buddy Hield had 15 points on 14 shots. That’s not the guy the Warriors saw the last two games.

Maybe heading back to the Chase Center will give the role players a boost, but this is looking as dire as you’d expect without Curry on the floor. If he isn’t back by Game 5, I’m not sure there will be a Game 6 for him to return to.

The Last 24

Shocking truth about playoff physicality

😱 Let’s get physical. John Hollinger has the numbers on whether or not the playoffs are more physical. They may surprise you!

🏀 How’d he get here? Pat Spencer has an unusual path to the NBA. He’s not going anywhere. 

🎥 Mikal Bridges. James Edwards III on how the Knicks wing has mastered adversity. Josh Hart’s bullying helped. 

☘️ Step up. Time for the best Celtic to step up and save the team. Where is Jayson Tatum?

🎧 Tuning in. Today’s “NBA Daily” discusses how bad the Warriors’ offense is without Steph Curry.

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Not Again

Is it deja vu for Cavaliers?

The Cavaliers go into tonight’s game in Indianapolis down 0-2 (check out the matchup for free on Fubo!), a precarious situation for a No. 1 seed that dominated the regular season. The Pacers shocked them in both games 1 and 2 in Cleveland, and it’s starting to feel a lot like what the Cavs endured the previous two postseasons, which ultimately cost J.B. Bickerstaff his job as their coach and landed him in Detroit.

Two years ago, the Cavs were fresh off the acquisition of Donovan Mitchell. It was a jump-start to a team that won 44 games the previous season but lost both Play-In Tournament games to miss the postseason. A quick snapshot:

• 2022-23: Won 51 games | No. 4 seed | Completely overwhelmed by the Knicks in five games.
• 2023-24: Battled through injuries | 48 wins | No. 4 seed | Got through a seven-game series with the upstart Orlando Magic. | Could not hang with the Boston Celtics in the second round in five games.

Their injuries didn’t even allow them to think about measuring up against Boston.

This season was supposed to be different under Kenny Atkinson, and it still might be. This Cavs team played nearly impeccable basketball for most of the 2024-25 campaign. Cleveland jumped from the fifth- and 11th-best offenses in the league the previous two seasons, respectively, to the best offense in the league this year. The Cavs went from a team treading water around league average in makes and accuracy in 3-point percentage over the last two seasons to the second-most makes and the second-highest accuracy this season.

So, why are they down 0-2? Why does it feel like this is happening all over to them again when it was supposed to change? Why does it feel like their appearance in the conference finals has already been completely derailed? There are a few reasons.

Fourth-quarter woes

The Cavs were the best fourth-quarter team in the NBA this season, outscoring their opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions. Indiana outscored them 29-22 in the fourth in Game 1, and 36-21 in the fourth in Game 2. The most damning part of that Game 2 defensive performance was 26 of those 36 points came in the paint.

3-point shooting is gone

The Cavs were 9-of-38 (23.7 percent) from deep in Game 1. They were 11-of-39 (28.2 percent) in Game 2. That’s a grand total of 25.9 percent. That looks nothing like what we’ve seen from them in the regular season. They’re making 25.7 percent of their open 3-point looks and 25.0 percent of their wide-open 3-point looks. It’s almost incomprehensible how bad their outside shooting has been. Indiana’s defense has improved this season, but not to this shot-missing degree.

Injuries have hit again

Darius Garland hasn’t played since Game 2 of the Miami sweep because of a toe injury. It didn’t hurt against the Heat, but that wasn’t a real challenge for them anyway. He missed Game 1 against Indiana. In Game 2, Evan Mobley and De’Andre Hunter also missed the game. Mobley’s absence would explain that paint success Indiana had in the fourth. Starting to look an awful lot like the injury issues that helped knock them out a year ago.

All three are listed as questionable for Game 3 but there’s hope they’ll try to play. The Cavs need any or all of them. It’s a must-win, and possibly the only way they’ll be taken seriously going forward.

I Looked It Up

Can elite offense be overrated in today’s NBA?

As we mentioned above, the Cavs have seemed to run out of 3-point shooting and enough scoring during the first couple games of their series against the Pacers. It’s a little more than concerning for a team that posted the most efficient offense in the NBA this season and the second-most efficient offense in NBA history (behind last year’s Celtics). But as we’ve mentioned over the last couple years, these offensive numbers with efficiency are out of control, and it almost becomes meaningless when we mention something like that.

Of the top 20 most efficient offensive teams in league history, 14 of them have happened within the last two seasons. The emphasis on 3-point shooting and efficiency in general have greatly skewed these numbers. To find an entry that didn’t happen in the previous seven seasons, you have to scroll down to 50th on the list, where you’ll find the 1986-87 Los Angeles Lakers. Think of their firepower and Hall of Famers. They have the exact same offensive efficiency as last year’s Timberwolves squad.

So, does having an elite offense mean anything anymore? Does it actually set you up for postseason success? For the sake of argument, I decided to consider an elite offense as top-five in the NBA. Why? I don’t know. It just felt easier. I wanted to track over the last 10 seasons (including this one) where these teams ended up in their postseason journeys. I even made a chart for it!

Does this chart make sense? Kind of! Remember, graphic design is my passion.

Over the last five years, we’ve seen a decline in how deep into the playoffs the elite offenses go. Now some of that could simply be because those “unfair” Warriors and the LeBron James Cavaliers aren’t in the mix during this second cross-section. The majority of the teams with a top-five offense over the last five seasons have topped out in the second round.

The interesting thing is you still have the same number of champions in each grouping, and that doesn’t even include what might happen this year. Maybe all of this research means nothing. And the ceiling for many of these teams seems to have lowered, except for the elite team that breaks through for a championship run. Maybe that will be OKC or Denver. Maybe Cleveland or Boston will come back. Maybe New York will be that squad. The important thing is I looked it up and passed it on to you.

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(Top photo: (Photo: Jesse Johnson / USA Today Network via Imagn Images )

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