

SUNRISE, Fla. — After a back-and-forth overtime loss in Game 3, the Maple Leafs will look to get a split in Florida tonight in Game 4.
A win would give the Leafs a commanding 3-1 lead in the series. A loss would turn the series on its head, making it a best of three through Games 5 to 7. As such, it’s starting to feel like every playoff game from here on in is the most important game of the modern Leafs era.
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“You can really let it go the other way, or you can grab it, fix it, make some adjustments, and focus on getting the message through to the team,” coach Craig Berube said of any possible lingering disappointment after the Game 3 loss. “Get the message through to the team that we knew it was going to be a long series. We were always prepared for a long series. We have an opportunity to go into Game 4 tomorrow and get a split. That is what we have to focus on.”
Here’s what we’re seeing from Sunday’s morning skate and what we’re looking for ahead of Game 4.
The likely lines
Knies — Matthews — Marner
Pacioretty — Tavares — Nylander
McMann — Domi — Holmberg
Lorentz — Laughton — Järnkrok
McCabe — Tanev
Rielly — Carlo
Benoit — Ekman-Larsson
Woll
Murray
Keep an eye out for Max Pacioretty in Game 4. Pacioretty has had a terrific playoffs. However, if the Panthers decide to use their No. 1 line against the Leafs’ group that features Pacioretty with John Tavares and William Nylander, Berube may have to swap out Pacioretty for a speedier defensive replacement, such as Pontus Holmberg. It’s a lot to ask of a 36-year-old to combat a line featuring Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart at this point in his career.
The Leafs, meanwhile, have only one goal all series from their bottom two lines. If not more offence, more momentum-changing shifts from those units would help.
Matt Murray returns as Joseph Woll’s backup; he was sick and unavailable in Game 3. Auston Matthews missed Sunday’s morning skate, but will play in Game 4. — Siegel
The big questions
Can Joseph Woll get his game back on track?
Joseph Woll hasn’t played poorly through his two starts this series. He’s made some important saves at key times. But he’s also allowed back-breaking shots past him, especially in Game 3, that are uncharacteristic. In a high-scoring series, if he can steal a game, it could swing the momentum back in the Leafs’ favour, and for good.
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Plus, it feels like Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is going to have himself a game at any point, too. He’s been fallible so far but there’s too much experience in his game to think that he’ll continue his up-and-down play. It’s starting to feel like whichever goalie can find their game the quickest could change the series for good.
Woll has been in this situation before: the playoffs of 2023 and 2024 saw him steal games. But the Leafs’ seasons were all but done at that point. Now, he’s expected to propel his team when they have a series lead. How will he respond to that pressure? — Kloke
Can the Leafs slow down Brad Marchand?
Marchand has been the Panthers’ best player in this series. He’s scored twice, including the OT winner in Game 3, added two assists, drawn two penalties, and been a general nuisance. The Panthers have won 74 percent of the expected goals in his minutes and 71 percent of the actual goals (5-2). Domination, in other words.
The Leafs have had no answer to this point for Marchand’s line with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen. Matthews’ line has the potential to be that answer — if the Panthers decide to match the two lines up again in Game 4. Either way, the Leafs need to slow down Marchand, their long-time nemesis. — Siegel
Will Auston Matthews break out offensively?
Yes, Matthews’ defensive play — especially against Florida’s top forwards — has been strong.
“He’s playing all over the ice extremely well,” Pacioretty said of Matthews. “And as a teammate, that’s what you notice first and foremost.”
But offensively, Matthews has yet to impact the series the way the Leafs need him to. He has not scored, though he does have three assists. The Leafs have outscored the Panthers 5-2 at five-on-five when Matthews is on the ice.
Something still seems off about his puck control and how dynamic he can be in the offensive zone. Opportunities that would have led to Matthews finding the back of the net in the past have gone awry. He leads all players in shots missing the net through the playoffs (20).
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Matthews is the Leafs’ No. 1 centre and still one of the best goal scorers on the planet. Considering how little secondary scoring the Leafs are getting, Matthews taking over a game with his shot would be a welcome change.
“Listen, he is a great scorer,” Berube said of Matthews during Saturday’s day off for the Leafs. “We all know that. I’m not too worried about it. It is what it is. Yeah, he needs to hit the net. He is trying to hit the net. He is not trying to miss the net.” — Kloke
How to watch
The puck drops in Florida at 7:30 p.m. (ET) on Sportsnet, CBC, TVAS, TBS, TruTV and Max.
(Photo of Auston Matthews: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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