NBA Draft 2025: Cooper Flagg (surprise!) leads John Hollinger’s top prospects

Time for my board to radically deviate from consensus!

Let’s start with Knueppel; people don’t seem to trust his production as a freshman at Duke. There’s this notion that he was a spot-up guy drafting off the awesomeness of his team, but nothing could be further from the truth: Knueppel was second on the team behind Flagg in usage rate and mostly lived on self-created shots. That shot diet included a ton of chances at the rim on straight-line drives; he rarely got to pull-ups or floaters because he was so good at playing through contact and finishing at the cup.

Knueppel very nearly went 50-40-90 as a freshman (settling for 47.9 percent from the field, 41.4 percent from 3 and 90.4 percent from the line), but his secondary stats were good too. For a shooting specialist, his rates of steals, blocks and free throws stood out. Duke was comfortable leaving him on the perimeter against smaller guards, and his feet seem adequate for an NBA wing. He’ll be hunted at times depending on who else is on the floor, especially because he struggles to challenge shots at the end of a move. But this isn’t the work of a pigeon.

However, let’s circle back to the best part: Knueppel’s shot is butter. Watching him warm up on movement shots from side to side before Duke games, it’s clear there is more to unpack here in terms of using him off screens at the NBA level. I don’t really understand why evaluations like Tre Johnson better; Knueppel offers the same movement showing but appears much better in virtually every other facet of the game. For me, there is a clear drop-off after Knueppel; he’s a lot closer to the Edgecombe/Harper level than to anything after this.

I don’t know what to do at No. 6. There are four players I really like, one (Fears) I’m willing to gamble on, and then I kind of throw my hands up. So, a 6-8 center from a team that went 2-16 in conference? Why not.

Murray-Boyles will need to change his game at the pro level because it’s unlikely he can play center for more than brief stretches. That will involve developing his nascent perimeter game, getting in better shape and improving his rarely used right hand, among other things.

That said, I’ve warmed up to his case. Watching him in the SEC tournament, his jumper isn’t broken. It’s a push shot from his chest, the release is slow, and he rarely stretched out to the 3-point line in his role at South Carolina. But yes, he can get to the point where he makes a third of them.

Additionally, he has the feet and hands to guard smaller players on the perimeter; in fact, that part requires no adjustment at all, as he did that comfortably even as a collegian.

What I love about the clip linked above is how close he is to the dribbler at the start; players tell on themselves by how much cushion they give. Murray-Boyles had no fear that he could slide his feet with a smaller player.

Murray-Boyles’ hands, in particular, are notable: His rate of 2.9 steals per 100 possessions is pretty spectacular for a big man. He also shows good feel and instincts at the offensive end, both as a finisher and passer.

Finally, Murray-Boyles is a young sophomore who won’t turn 20 until just before the draft. He suffered from having to be the best player on two horrible South Carolina teams, but he has a role player’s profile. He likely will need an adjustment year at the offensive end – similar to another SEC center, Grant Williams – but he can be a starting power forward if everything breaks right.

One of my biggest hot takes for this draft is that Essengue isn’t getting nearly enough attention. A Frenchman plying his trade in Germany, Essengue rivals Flagg as the youngest player in the draft with his December 2006 birthdate. Essengue was nonetheless a productive starter for a solid EuroCup team that is pushing for the German league championship. Essengue’s stats this year stand out for an overseas teenager, with a PER of 17.7, block and steal rates over 2.0 percent and a solid 13.4 percent rebound rate despite barely weighing 200 pounds. (Filling out physically is one of his biggest developmental to-dos.)

Essengue also had 20 points, eight rebounds, three steals and two blocks in a preseason game against the Portland Trail Blazers, while guarding Deni Avdija for much of it; here’s a clip of a pick-six steal and dunk he had in that game.

Essengue’s big swing skill will be shooting; he made 26.5 percent from 3 and 70.2 percent from the line this year; obviously, that won’t get it done. On the other hand, can we talk about his work inside the arc? Essengue shot 62.4 percent on 2s with a James Harden-esque free-throw rate (235 free throws against just 213 2-point attempts), an amazing feat for a skinny teen in a physical league. Even going up a level in the game against Portland, he managed to grift six foul shots.

Statistically, Essengue has a lot of similarities to what the Wizards’ Bilal Coulibaly did in France in his draft year, except that Essengue is further along as a decision-maker (he had a slightly positive assist-turnover ratio, in fact). Coulibaly went seventh in the 2023 draft; it doesn’t seem unreasonable to have Essengue seventh on the board in 2025.

Bryant grabbed my attention during the 2024 Hoop Summit practices. Playing on the scout team scrimmaging against a U.S. squad with Flagg, Harper and others, Bryant made it obvious that he was on the wrong team and should have been selected for the U.S. squad. His freshman year at Arizona started slowly, but by the end, it was clear he was one of the best prospects in his class, even in a low-usage role.

About that: One thing that may make teams skittish about grabbing Bryant this high is that he has a limited handle that may consign him to a low-usage, 3-and-D role. While Bryant can get more buckets off cuts, transitions and general energy at the pro level than he did at Arizona, his shot-creation tools are still pretty rudimentary.

That said, the rest of the package looks ready to go, and he can easily be in an opening-night rotation. Bryant has position size at both forward spots, makes good reads as a passer to offset some of his dribble weakness and has a smooth jumper that he can launch over closeouts.

Defensively, his rates of blocks and steals stood out for a one-and-done wing (2.8 steals and 2.9 blocks per 100), although he needs to chill on the rampant fouling. Among non-center prospects, only Flagg and San Diego State’s Myles Byrd topped him in “stocks” rate. Bryant’s defensive tape in isolation situations is solid but not amazing; he can be a half-beat slow changing directions but makes up for it with elite closing ability on shooters. The fact that his clips included turns checking guys like Flagg and Edgecombe tells you what the coaches thought.

Maybe Bryant isn’t crazy exciting. But players in this size-skill category get $20 million a year in free agency, so you always draft them if you have the chance.

Coming to BYU by way of Russia and Real Madrid, Demin had some strong initial buzz in November as a 6-9 point forward. That quickly faded during a horrid mid-winter slump; I watched him in person during a miserable 0-for-10 performance at Providence.

For much of the year, Demin seemed reluctant to put pressure on the paint and would turn every pick-and-roll into a cross-court pass to the opposite corner, regardless of what the defense did. It’s cool that he can hit the opposite corner reliably in pick-and-roll, but would you please turn the corner once or twice?

However, his level of play picked up noticeably late in the year, including three double-figure games in the NCAA Tournament. Demin, however, still needs to become more aggressive as a scorer and has to work on his shot; he made only 27.3 percent from 3 and 69.5 percent from the line.

Demin’s offense might have been disappointing, but I’m surprised more people aren’t talking about his defense. He could play a half-step farther off guards than most wings because of his height and length and was able to close late and challenge shots very effectively.

Even when he guarded more closely, he wasn’t necessarily at a disadvantage. Watch here as he shoots the gap for a deflection and then checks an opposing point guard for six dribbles before forcing a miss at the end.

Again, as with Bryant, players of this archetype are difficult to acquire, and you can play multiples of them at once. Demin can dribble, pass and guard the perimeter; if he becomes any kind of shooting threat at all, he should be a valuable player.