Revisiting oddly specific 2024-25 NHL predictions: The right and mostly wrong (but maybe right?)

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Every year, just as the regular season is set to begin, I make oddly specific predictions for each NHL team. It’s one of my very favorite columns to write each year.

And then in the spring, I have to see if I actually got any right. That’s today’s column, and it is not one of my favorites.

But we have to do it because accountability matters, so here we go. If you’re new to the Oddly Specific prediction game, it’s exactly what it sounds like: A prediction for each team that gets a little too detailed. It’s not enough to say a team will have more points; we need an exact total. Don’t tell us something will happen; give us the specific game. Anyone can predict an Alexander Ovechkin goal; let’s see you plant the flag for Joel Hanley.

That last one, of course, is maybe our most memorable hit: In 2022, I didn’t just predict that defensive defenseman Hanley would finally score his first regular-season goal, but I also gave you the exact game it happened in. It was pretty amazing. I’ve been chasing that high ever since.

I’ll save you the suspense: This year’s predictions, which you can go back and read here, don’t have any Hanley-level miracle calls. At least … not yet. But we’ll get to that.

As always, we’ll do this in tiers, starting with the boring one you can honestly skip.

Tier 1: Garden-variety wrong

Utah Mammoth

Lawson Crouse did not score the first NHL goal for Utah; Dylan Guenther did. Crouse scored the last goal in their first game, which is apparently what I meant.

Anaheim Ducks

None of the players who scored an overtime goal for the Ducks were subsequently traded, meaning none are scoring playoff OT winners for their new teams.

Carolina Hurricanes

They did not start the season 5-4-1.

Boston Bruins

I predicted that Jeremy Swayman would get pulled in his first game after signing his big new extension. He wasn’t great, giving up four goals, but stuck around in a win. He did get yanked from an 8-2 loss to the Hurricanes later in October, but by then it was too late for me.

St. Louis Blues

Not only did the Penguins and Blues not manage a four-on-four goal in either of their two games against each other, but the refs didn’t even give them an opportunity. (The last game did end on a four-on-three goal, though.)

Minnesota Wild

The Wild didn’t play a game in which they had the same number of shots as their opponents until mid-December.

Vancouver Canucks

Thatcher Demko did not return to the lineup with a shutout in his first start. He gave up a goal nine minutes in, one of four he allowed on the night.

Buffalo Sabres

The Sabres did not lose both games of their season-opening homestand.

Los Angeles Kings

There were no shutouts in the Kings’ early road trip, although five of the seven games featured a team scoring exactly once. (And then one of the games finished 8-7, because hockey.)

New York Islanders

The Islanders did beat the Avalanche in Patrick Roy’s early-season return to Colorado, but they did not need a 40-save performance to do it. (Ilya Sorokin had 32 that night.)

Detroit Red Wings

It’s an annual Oddly Specific tradition that I pick one team and predict they’ll finish with the same point total as the year before. The Red Wings were that team this year, but they dropped from 91 points to 86.

Colorado Avalanche

There were no six-on-three goals in games involving the Avalanche, or, for the third straight season, any other team.

Pittsburgh Penguins

I predicted that the Penguins would finish with only 87 points. They wish; they dropped all the way to 80.

Winnipeg Jets

The shootout-averse Jets only won two games that way all year, and neither against the teams I’d predicted.

Patrik Laine scored in his Canadiens debut on Dec. 3, 2024. (David Kirouac / Imagn Images)

Montreal Canadiens

Patrik Laine did not score on his first shift as a Hab, although he did get one in his first game.

Florida Panthers

It was the first season to feature multiple goalie goals, but Sergei Bobrovsky did not score one of them. I continue my lifetime streak of going o-fer at predicting goalie goal scorers. Yes, I plan to continue trying next year.

Tier 2: Not just wrong, but almost impressively wrong

Tampa Bay Lightning

I predicted that Jake Guentzel and Steven Stamkos would finish tied in goals. Not quite, as Guentzel ran away with the race, winning 41 to 27.

Chicago Blackhawks

Connor Bedard did not score the winning goal at the Winter Classic. Or any goals in that game. Or any goals at all, apparently, based on how some Blackhawks fans were acting.

Dallas Stars

Miro Heiskanen did not finish third in Norris Trophy balloting, and his injury-shortened season means he probably won’t even get a single vote.

San Jose Sharks

I predicted they’d get out of the first month with a .500 record; they started the season with a nine-game losing streak, so that would be a no.

Tier 3: Wrong, but at least a little close

Philadelphia Flyers

I predicted Matvei Michkov would mirror Pavel Bure’s rookie season, with 34 goals and 60 points. Nope, although with 26 goals and 63 points, I wasn’t that far off.

New Jersey Devils

Oddly specific prediction legend Jacob Markström had four shutouts, and one of them did indeed come against a former team. But that was the Canucks, and I predicted he’d have a shutout against the Panthers.

Ottawa Senators

I swung big on the most far-fetched prediction we’ve ever had, but no, of course Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman did not drop the gloves and hug it out in a line brawl. It felt like we were close when a January game started to get ugly, and Swayman even got involved in the action. But even if the goalie fight had happened, it was Leevi Meriläinen in net for Ottawa that night, not Ullmark.

Calgary Flames

I predicted our old friend Joel Hanley would score his lone goal of the season in his 23rd game. He waited for his 28th, which is close. But then he let all that offense get to his head and scored a second goal at the end of the season. OK, Bobby Orr, maybe settle down and let the rest of the kids touch the puck too.

Tier 4: Wrong, and more than a little close

Toronto Maple Leafs

I predicted Mitch Marner would finish exactly 20 points ahead of William Nylander in scoring, even though the latter was coming off a 98-point season. This one got very spicy down the stretch, and I almost nailed it — Marner ended up with 102 points while Nylander had 84, a gap of 18.

Nashville Predators

Steven Stamkos did not score in overtime in his return to Tampa. The game did go to OT, though, and Stamkos even had one decent scoring chance to make me look smart.

Seattle Kraken

I noticed the Kraken hadn’t scored a wraparound goal all year in 2023-24 — and, in fact, had only five attempts — and then said they’d score one this year. They did get one — exactly one, on six attempts this time — but it didn’t come against the Jets, the team I’d specifically predicted.

It turns out I was off by one game; Kaapo Kakko scored one on March 14 against Utah, the game before Winnipeg came to town. OK, fine, but Utah used to be the Jets, so I should get partial credit.

Tier 5: Completely wrong but almost sneaky right

New York Rangers  

I predicted the Rangers wouldn’t win the Presidents’ Trophy, but rather would finish sixth. The context makes it clear that I meant sixth overall, which would leave me off by 16 spots after the Rangers’ disastrous drop all the way to 22nd. That’s some very bad prediction work.

But! For a while, I could have claimed I meant they’d finish sixth in their division, which would have been a massive long shot of Nostradamus-like levels, and I absolutely would have milked it for all it was worth. Tragically, the Rangers edged out the Islanders and finished fifth in the Metro instead. Yet another reason they should have let the Islanders win one of those games.

Tier 6: Correct, but only vaguely impressive

Vegas Golden Knights

I noted that the Golden Knights had gone a league-worst 0-5-0 in 2023-24 in games in which they had exactly three days’ rest, then predicted they’d win both of the two such games they had in October. They did, beating the Kings 6-1 and then using a late third-period comeback to beat the Senators.

Tier 7: Correct, and moderately impressive

Edmonton Oilers

I predicted Leon Draisaitl would win the Rocket Richard, despite the oddsmakers having Auston Matthews as a prohibitive favorite. He did, and it wasn’t all that close, with Draisaitl’s 52 goals putting him a comfortable seven ahead of runner-up William Nylander.

Leon Draisaitl secures his first Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy as the NHL’s goal-scoring leader this season! 🚨 #NHLAwards

He ends 2024-25 with 52 goals. pic.twitter.com/p3hzXU2c8W

— NHL (@NHL) April 18, 2025

Tier 8: Still to be determined

Columbus Blue Jackets

I said the Blue Jackets’ brutal early schedule would yield a win against the eventual Cup winner. They racked up more wins than we’d expected over that stretch, although victories against the Avalanche, Sabres and Islanders don’t help us. But they also beat the Oilers and the Maple Leafs, so we’ve got two cards still in play to put this one in the win category.

Tier 9: Definitely wrong … FOR NOW

Look, we all hate replay review, but I think we can agree that the most important thing is to just get it right …

Washington Capitals

I predicted Pierre-Luc Dubois would have four points in the eight games combined that the Caps played against his former teams: the Blue Jackets, Jets and Kings. Then I went even more specific and said it would be exactly one goal and three assists.

Dubois’ actual totals in those eight games: One goal and four assists. That’s agonizingly close to nailing an all-timer. Sadly, close enough is not enough in Oddly Specific world, so this one goes into the “wrong” bin with all the others.

EXCEPT!

I mean, let’s all watch this goal from the Nov. 2 game between the Caps and Blue Jackets:

First of all, it’s already 5-1, so why are you even trying to score? But more importantly, that’s Dubois at the very beginning of the play, poking the puck up to Tom Wilson and Connor McMichael, who do all the work. They can’t convert on the two-on-one, but the puck eventually bounces off Blue Jackets defenseman Jack Johnson and back to McMichael, who buries it.

Are we sure Johnson doesn’t have possession there? I think he might. And if he does, that would make McMichael’s goal unassisted, taking a helper away from Dubois and landing this prediction in the Oddly Specific hall of fame.

Look, I’ll just say it: I’m calling on Dubois to do the right thing here, and publicly renounce this secondary assist on a meaningless goal from a blowout win. It’s not all about the individual stats, Pierre-Luc, and I think this move would send a strong message that you’re more about the team than about personal glory.

We await your confirmation of this decision. Until then, this one will have to be grudgingly filed as (just barely) wrong.

(Top photo of Connor McMichael and Pierre-Luc Dubois celebrating a goal: Geoff Burke / Imagn Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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