Fantasy Baseball Rankings Movers: Jacob Wilson, Javier Baez surge; Moises Ballesteros adds to catcher surplus

Most every week, Scott White will highlight some of the more notable changes to his rest-of-season rankings. You’ll find said rankings here and are urged to bookmark them if you haven’t already. There’s no better resource for gauging player value throughout the long season.

You could ask 100 people what the weakest position in Fantasy Baseball is and get the same answer. Or maybe not, actually, because the answer is so obviously catcher that most respondents would presume you mean “aside from catcher.”

But something is happening at catcher this year. In leagues that require only one, there are way too many quality options to go around. The issue is exacerbated by the recent promotion of Moises Ballesteros, an impressive hitting talent who was batting .368 at Triple-A. He’s arriving not long after Agustin Ramirez, another top catcher prospect who has already made a splash with the Marlins.

Hunter Goodman, meanwhile, has been the one silver lining in the Rockies‘ storm cloud of a season, and then there’s Drake Baldwin, another rookie who’s been hitting so well in recent weeks that he’s threatening to overtake Sean Murphy, himself a worthwhile Fantasy contributor. Carson Kelly has come out of nowhere to put up stud numbers. Ivan Herrera has resumed putting up stud numbers after a lengthy IL stint. Tyler Stephenson and Francisco Alvarez have also recently returned from the IL.

You’ll notice I have yet to name a player who was drafted to be a starter in one-catcher leagues. There’s upward of 12 of those as well. You see the predicament, then, and yet unlike at other positions, you couldn’t justify starting an extra catcher in your utility spot because, as good as they may be compared to catchers past, they don’t play often enough to measure up to other positions. You simply have to pick one and only one, at least until he gives you reason to swap him out for another one.

You can imagine the headache it creates in the rankings. At some point, attrition will have its say — catcher is a physically demanding position, after all — but in the meantime, I’m left with the unenviable task of parsing out the excess.

Catcher

• If I had to plant my flag in just one of the emergent catcher standouts, it would be Ivan Herrera. His Statcast readings were excellent last year and have been unimpeachable this year, making him out to be a masher of the highest order. And while it’s only a 10-game sample because of time lost to a knee issue, he has the production to match. I’ve resolved to move him into my top 10 at the position, ahead of Logan O’Hoppe, Hunter Goodman, and Agustin Ramirez, among others, and part of me wants to move him ahead of Shea Langeliers and J.T. Realmuto as well. That seems like the bright red line at the position, which is why I hesitate, but the upside is clearly there for Herrera.
• Sean Murphy, who you may remember got off to such a hot start when he returned from a fractured rib about two weeks into the season, once again finds himself in the position of having a backup that’s too good to plant on the bench. This time, it’s rookie Drake Baldwin, who has been taking a larger and larger share of the playing time — and deservedly, I might add. I have to move someone down at this suddenly loaded position, and Murphy seems like an obvious choice, given the circumstances, which is why he’s gone from 11th to 16th over the last week. Baldwin himself is 24th, and if the two begin splitting 50/50, he’ll obviously rise from there.
• Moises Ballesteros, meanwhile, debuts at only 20th because, again, the position is loaded. He has preternatural hitting skills, which would obviously be cause for enthusiasm under normal circumstances, but in a league loaded with catching talent, the Cubs might be the most loaded team of all, already unable to give Miguel Amaya the at-bats he needs thanks to Carson Kelly’s unlikely emergence. Ballesteros is only here because Ian Happ went on the IL with what seems like a mild oblique injury, forcing Seiya Suzuki to the outfield and freeing up the DH spot for another catcher. Once Happ returns, though, everything snaps back into place. The upside is obviously worth pursuing in a two-catcher league, but in a one-catcher league, given the caliber of player you already have at the position, you’re better off taking a wait-and-see approach with Ballesteros.

First base

• Freddie Freeman had long been a first-round fixture but slipped to the third round in drafts this year due to concerns over his health. Turns out, though, he’s hitting as well as he ever has. In fact, he revealed earlier this week that he’s overcome the “cut swing” that plagued him the past couple years, causing him to open his hips early and miss-hit balls that he would normally drive. And here we thought it was decline! He was still terrific during that time with the cut swing, but seeing what he’s doing now and knowing why he’s gotten better, I have a hard time putting him any lower than first at the position, with apologies to Vladimir Guerrero.
• I’ve been reluctant to move Paul Goldschmidt past early risers like Spencer Torkelson and Ben Rice because I was pretty sure his decline last year was real and irreversible at age 37. Furthermore, his success this year is mostly built on an outlier batting average that he’s unlikely to sustain. His exit velocities are actually the worst they’ve ever been. Still, I’ve taken the plunge this week and moved him into my top 12. He’s playing more than Rice is and has a prominent spot in a loaded lineup. I don’t know, though. I may regret it.

Second base

• Gleyber Torres is the big riser here, climbing to 13th after spending most of the year outside of the top 20. As with Goldschmidt, I’m skeptical of Torres because his 8.6 percent strikeout rate is too out-of-character to believe and because he’s now playing his home games at maybe the worst possible venue for his swing. But second base is so full of lightweights that it’s actually not hard to get him up to 13th. He’s only 28 years old, so it’s possible his disappointing 2024 was a fluke (putting aside those other concerns).
• On the other hand, Jake Cronenworth is back from the IL and hitting well, but he’s only 22nd. When I said second base is full of lightweights … yeah, I was including him. It doesn’t mean he isn’t usable, but the overall track record is less impressive than Torres’. And since the power production figures to be moderate at best, I’d rather cast my lot with players who have some capacity for stealing bases, like Xander Bogaerts and Dylan Moore.

Third base

• Jorge Polanco and Maikel Garcia continue to move up in the world, such that they’ve now bumped Eugenio Suarez and Royce Lewis from my top 12 at third base. I wrote earlier this week about how both Polanco and Garcia appear to have staying power. Meanwhile, it’s not so hard to poke holes in Suarez and Lewis right now.
• Several third-base-eligible players who ranked too low to be visible (meaning outside the top 40) just a couple weeks ago are firmly in the visible range now. They include Javier Baez (27th), Brett Baty (28th), Luis Urias (31st) and Gabriel Arias (32nd). Among them, the one generating the most headlines right now is Baez, who had two home runs Tuesday, including a walk-off winner. He’s been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the past couple weeks, and yet his Baseball Savant page remains as blue as a summer swim. Color me skeptical, in other words, particularly given his three-year absence from the Fantasy stage. If you’re looking to steelman the case for his turnaround, he did undergo hip surgery late last season.

Shortstop

• I wrote a couple weeks ago about how Zachary Neto was showing no ill effects from his offseason shoulder surgery and deserves to be ranked as if it had never happened, which at the time landed him 13th at shortstop for me. He’s up another two spots now, leapfrogging Matt McLain and Willy Adames, both of whom gave me doubts to begin with. They’re better than they’ve shown so far, but Neto himself had 23 homers and 30 steals last year and is impacting the ball even harder this year. That’s a lot to compete with.
• Prospect Jordan Lawlar was crushing it in the minors, and his call-up was long overdue in the minds of many. But as with Moises Ballesteros at catcher, concerns over his lineup fit suppress his Fantasy value for now. There isn’t actually an opening on the Diamondbacks infield for Lawlar, so he’s expected to spell every starter, hopefully cobbling together four starts a week. There’s the potential for him to earn more, of course, but as things stand, I can only justify ranking him as high as 27th, which actually isn’t so bad when you consider it’s right in between Masyn Winn and Dylan Moore.
• So rare is it to find a player with Jacob Wilson’s skill set that actually makes good on it in the majors that I can think of only one example: Luis Arraez. Such a comp is basically asking Wilson to thread a needle in his rookie season, but it turns out it may be selling him short. With his two home runs Tuesday, Wilson is already halfway to Arraez’s career high with five, and while his exit velocity readings are certainly lacking, he showed pretty good over-the-fence pop at Triple-A last year and in spring training as well. It puts less pressure on him to be an outlier for batting average, but he may be anyway thanks to his 5.5 percent strikeout rate and up-the-middle approach. So thoroughly has he impressed with his .363 batting average that he’s now far and away the AL Rookie of the Year favorite, according to BetMGM Sportsbook, with a -125 line. So what does it mean for Wilson’s Fantasy ranking? Well, the highest I could get him is 15th, but you have to remember how deep shortstop is.

Outfield

• We all know the talent Byron Buxton has, and while it’s reasonable to presume he’ll succumb to injury at some point since that’s the way his entire 11-year career has gone, he’s healthy right now and on pace for a 30/30 campaign. My rankings should probably acknowledge this more, so I’ve gotten him up to 37th in Rotisserie (as compared to 42nd in Head-to-Head points due to the high strikeout rate).
• Among those dropping behind Buxton is Cedric Mullins, whose underlying numbers didn’t really back up his hot start and who has crashed pretty hard here in May. He’s gone from 27th to 38th in my Rotisserie rankings.
• If that seems like too steep of a drop to you, understand that the entire 30-50 range of my outfield rankings is an indecipherable glob right now. It’s decipherable in the sense that different players excel in different ways, but whose strengths and weaknesses add up to the most overall goodness is very much up for debate. Within this range, you’ll find outfielders whose incredible starts are dampened by platoon concerns (Abreu, Kerry Carpenter, Trent Grisham), outfielders whose slow starts are deserving of more patience (Luis Robert, Dylan Crews), and recent risers such as Heliot Ramos, who has climbed from 55th to 43rd thanks to his .412 (21 for 51) batting average and four home runs over his past 15 games.
• Evan Carter’s return from the minors has been a mixed bag, but his home run Saturday was far and away his hardest-hit ball on record, majors and minors included. It’s enough of a glimmer for me to move him into my top 70, ahead of names like Jordan Beck and Cam Smith.

Starting pitcher

• All season, I’ve been operating under the presumption that Nathan Eovaldi would eventually be struck by reality. We’ve seen him dominate for stretches in the past, but he’s 35 and has only once registered an ERA below 3.63. (He had a 3.39 mark way back in 2013 for the Marlins, of all teams.) Seeing him with a 1.78 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9 through nine starts, though, I’ve decided to change my tune a bit. He has genuinely refined his approach this year, after all, leaning more into a curveball that shows improved break, emerging as his best pitch. He’s also upped his cutter usage while reducing his reliance on his top two pitches, a splitter and fastball. I can justify moving him as high as 28th, ahead of Aaron Nola and Bailey Ober. After all, the ERA concerns for them aren’t any less legitimate.
• Ronel Blanco is quickly proving to be more than just a one-year wonder, striking out 11 over eight two-hit innings in his latest start and boasting a 14.5 percent swinging-strike rate that ranks seventh among qualifiers, directly ahead of Zack Wheeler and Chris Sale. He has his downsides, too, but I’ve moved him up from 64th to 53rd.
• Not far behind Blanco is Andrew Abbott, whose latest quality effort Tuesday gives him a 2.10 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 overall. So how is he only 60th? First of all, that’s a rise of almost 40 spots. Give me a chance to ease into the cauldron. Secondly, there are a number of hangups. His outings have been short. His walk rate remains high. His swinging-strike rate isn’t the sort that should yield anything close to 11.4 K/9. But he has been getting much better results on his fastball, particularly lately, and I think it owes something to the 300 rpm he’s taken off his changeup this year, creating more separation between those pitches. In short, I’m now open to Abbott being a breakout pitcher this year but I have enough doubts that I’m not moving him as high as MacKenzie Gore, Kris Bubic, or even Tony Gonsolin.
• I’m also starting to warm up to Shane Smith and Matthew Boyd, who have risen to 77th and 82nd, respectively. There’s genuine upside for both, particularly if Smith’s whiff rate keeps rising and Boyd’s walk rate keeps falling. Michael Wacha, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Merrill Kelly have also climbed into the top 85, but there are clear limits to their upside, which means I don’t see them rising much higher than that unless attrition forces the issue.

Relief pitcher

• It’s time to get serious about Jhoan Duran, who had only two saves in all of April and was brought into a game before the ninth six times. Things have normalized here in May, though, and he’s already racked up five saves for the month. He’s pitching great, so I’ve moved him ahead of three closers whose concerns are a little more front and center right now. Raisel Iglesias has struggled to preserve leads for the Braves and may be on the verge of a probationary period. Tanner Scott keeps being called in prior to the ninth inning of games, confirming that he’s just one part of a committee for the Dodgers. Jose Alvarado, meanwhile, is also at risk of becoming part of a committee after setting up for a Jordan Romano save Sunday.
• Two closer scenarios that are up in the air right now are the Giants and Pirates. Ryan Walker seems like he has a bit of a leash still but clearly hasn’t been as sharp this year and has a more proven closer capably setting up for him in Camilo Doval. Walker has fallen to 19th for me while Doval has risen to 33rd. Meanwhile, a managerial change in Pittsburgh seems to have tipped the scales back in Dennis Santana’s favor. He and David Bednar now rank alongside each other at 35th and 36th.