Five reasons for Edmonton Oilers fans to be optimistic about Stanley Cup pursuit

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The Edmonton Oilers are playing at a high level this spring, and fans are talking Stanley Cup. Despite an enormous gap between top and bottom performances (we’ve seen both in the postseason), Edmonton is on the verge of advancing to the third round of the playoffs.

Here are five reasons Oilers fans should be optimistic about the team.

Connor McDavid: The best is yet to come

Many observers have expressed that Connor McDavid has more to give this spring.

The numbers show he’s delivering at a high level in the biggest part of the game. In fact, his offensive performance at five-on-five has improved this postseason. He scored 2.9 points per 60 a year ago and is delivering 3.67 points per 60 so far this year.

However, there’s plenty of room to grow on the power play. His totals are down drastically in this area, from 10.07 points per 60 last season to 1.74 points per 60 this spring. Regression is going to correct in a big way in this part of the game, based on McDavid’s past.

One interesting wrinkle: McDavid’s penalty-killing time is way up this postseason. He’s at 55 seconds per game in the discipline, the third highest total of his career. In a very small sample, he’s doing well.

Evander Kane is healthy

Along with the physical play and intimidation, Evander Kane can score goals from range. When healthy, he has shown an above average level of scoring skill for a power forward. That makes him unique among NHL power wingers.

At five-on-five during this year’s playoffs, Kane has scored four goals in 140 minutes, or 1.71 goals per 60. That impressive number ranks No. 3 among all NHL regulars this spring.

The big winger didn’t play during the regular season, and became something of a forgotten contributor as the season rolled along. Some fans felt he should be traded at the deadline for a player who could help immediately.

Oilers general manager Stan Bowman kept his powder dry, and the results delivered by Kane in this year’s playoffs are exceptional. Continued health is the only requirement.

Evan Bouchard’s playoff brilliance

He’s doing it again. Evan Bouchard is money in the postseason, and this year appears to be extending his impact on the game.

At five-on-five, he’s on par with his production last season (2.08 points per 60 this year, 2.00 last postseason). He has scored two power-play goals already this spring and has been productive (as always) with the man advantage.

Perhaps the most impressive area for Bouchard this season is increased success at five-on-five shot and goal suppression. His numbers in the series versus the Vegas Golden Knights (19.35 SA-60, 1.49 GA-60) at five-on-five are outstanding, and lead the team’s defencemen in both metrics, via Natural Stat Trick.

In Game 4, a victory for Edmonton, Bouchard delivered what might be his best overall performance. He showed calm feet, patience, great anticipation without the puck and increased maturity during important moments in the game.

It was Bouchard who calmed the waters, reset and turned north under control and with a plan, using time and space to his advantage.

He’s always a big part of the Oilers’ game story, but Bouchard’s impact at both ends of the ice has reached a new level recently. If he can continue to deliver at this high level, Edmonton will have an easier time winning games.

Goalies

At five-on-five during the series against the Golden Knights, both Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner have outduelled Vegas starter Adin Hill. Pickard (.919) and Skinner (.895) have superior save percentages to Hill (.859). What’s more, the Oilers have a lower SA-60 (21.7 to 26.6) and GA-60 (2.02 to 3.76) at five-on-five during the series against Vegas.

Edmonton’s reputation as an offence-first team runs counter to these quality defensive numbers.

Pickard is day to day, but Skinner played well in Game 4. If the Oilers can manage anything close to these numbers moving forward, it bodes well for their Stanley Cup chances.

Depth

One of the keys to winning a championship is quality and depth.

The Oilers have a superior lineup this spring compared to one year ago, much of it among the forwards. Coach Kris Knoblauch can easily run four legit lines that offer varying degrees of effectiveness.

It’s a massive advantage over the long haul of a playoff spring. How effective is the group? Using the team’s centres as a proxy for each line, we get a strong idea about the ease with which Knoblauch can deploy his lines in the playoffs this year.

The No. 1 line (McDavid with Leon Draisaitl and Corey Perry) has scored eight goals and allowed four (67 percent share); the second line featuring Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at centre is a 3-2 goals (60 percent), followed by Adam Henrique (7-4 goals, 64 percent) and Mattias Janmark (3-1 goals, 75 percent).

Knoblauch has always shown a preference for deploying his lines without much concern about the opposition. This is the first combination of lines we’ve seen under Knoblauch that have all delivered handsomely.

Using even-strength numbers, McDavid, Draisaitl and Perry have played 72 minutes together this spring. The second line (Nugent-Hopkins with Kane and Zach Hyman) has played 62 minutes, Henrique (with Connor Brown and Trent Frederic) 58 minutes and the Janmark line (mostly Vasily Podkolzin and Viktor Arvidsson) 38 minutes. It’s been years since Edmonton has been able to deliver that kind of consistent roster structure and roll four lines.

Defensively, it’s also a wealth of depth. That’s reflected by the delayed insertion of Troy Stecher into the starting lineup. He has been healthy for some time, but the Oilers kept winning.

Once Stecher got into the lineup, he was paired with Darnell Nurse, who played his most effective game of the Vegas series.

Bottom line

Some fans believe Draisaitl needs to step up offensively, but his five-on-five numbers year over year in the playoffs are strong. He has increased his points per 60 (2.68 this season) and his goal share (56 percent). On the power play, the big man is at 6.95 points per 60 and a threat to score with every man advantage.

Consistency has been an issue for the Oilers, but the increased depth and improved health of the roster have helped. Knoblauch has a handle on the group and (as we saw one year ago) roster tweaks often deliver a net positive for this team.

Mattias Ekholm has started skating, and there’s a chance fans will see him if the club advances to the third round of the postseason.

Oilers fans know the fortunes of this team can turn on a dime. As it stands today, there are many reasons to feel good about this Oilers spring.

(Photo: Leila Devlin / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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