TORONTO — No hyperbole here: Game 5 against the Florida Panthers is the most important game of the Maple Leafs’ season and likely in the playoff careers of their stars.
After squandering a 2-0 series lead, the Leafs have surrendered all the momentum in the second round. The Panthers are looking comfortable playing their nasty, punishing brand of hockey. How the Leafs — especially the core — respond could not only dictate how this series unfolds, but the future of this roster. The NHL’s most touted free agent this summer is wearing blue and white, after all.
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Teams that win Game 5 of a knotted series historically have gone on to win the series most of the time. And so a Leafs win, with dominant performances from their stars, could put the team in the driver’s seat to, just maybe, finally get out of the second round for the first time in a generation. A loss would see the team head back to Florida, where the Panthers have lost just two of their last eight playoff games stretching back to last year’s Stanley Cup Final. And a loss would amplify questions over whether this core can win late in series.
It appears the Leafs’ lineup is in for a shakeup, too.
It’s the kind of game that will see the Leafs either re-write, or re-establish, old narratives. Buckle up.
The likely lines
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McCabe — Tanev
Rielly — Carlo
Benoit — Ekman-Larsson
Woll
Murray
At Tuesday morning’s practice, it looked like nothing much would change for Game 5. By Wednesday morning, though, it was the opposite.
Change appears to be in the making for the Leafs’ Game 5 lineup, almost certainly in the forward group.
Some hints: The team’s black aces didn’t stay out for extra work at the optional morning skate as they usually would. They were called off quickly. One of those extras, David Kämpf, didn’t skate at all. Neither did a usual participant, Bobby McMann. All Craig Berube would say was the Leafs had game-time decisions to make and those decisions weren’t about injuries. They were coach’s decisions.
Change in the bottom six feels most likely with what little they’ve provided so far this series. Maybe that’s Kämpf and/or Nick Robertson, who could provide a jolt of offence in his return to the lineup. My thought? Hook Robertson up with McMann and Max Domi and hope that line, sporadically punchy during the regular season, will pop for a goal. And bring in Kämpf for more speed and size in the middle of the fourth line, pairing him with Scott Laughton and Steven Lorentz. —Siegel
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The big questions
Can the Leafs make the Panthers pay for penalties?
The Leafs are just 2-for-15 on the power play in this series. Again and again the top unit has missed opportunities to come through in big spots and generate momentum.
In Game 4, the most dangerous player on the Leafs’ three power plays was probably Sam Reinhart, a Panther, who generated a couple dangerous short-handed looks.
Keys for the group in Game 5: Cleaner entries, quicker puck movement, a more direct shot-based approach, and maybe most important of all, persistence. As William Nylander told me on Tuesday, the Leafs have let one missed chance on the power play spoil their approach on subsequent opportunities. Keep an eye on Nylander in Game 5. He has yet to register a shot on the power play all series. —Siegel
Will Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner produce when it matters?
Considering their AAV and production through the regular season and early in playoff rounds, Auston Matthews’ and Mitch Marner’s late-series production has been disappointing.
Through Games 5 to 7 of Matthews’ playoff career: 21 GP, nine goals, five assists.
Through Games 5 to 7 of Marner’s playoff career: 23 GP, one goal, nine assists.
Those kinds of numbers won’t suffice if the Leafs want to win the best-of-three that this series has become. The Leafs need more offence in the big moments from the players who should be delivering. Game 5 against the Senators — in which the Leafs could have closed out the series and bought themselves an extra few days of rest — saw Matthews and Marner fail to log a point and go minus-4. Game 5 against the Panthers represents the best chance of their careers to change the narrative surrounding them and their playoff failures.
Matthews, in particular, needs to find the back of the net. His defensive work is elite, but the best players in the world put their teams on their backs when it’s needed. But Matthews, who scored 69 goals last season, has a total of zero goals in nine career playoff games against the Panthers. Every playoff game so far has felt like one of the most important of each player’s career. It’s time for them to recognize the stakes and produce. —Kloke
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Can Craig Berube use home ice to his advantage?
Games 3 and 4 saw Panthers coach Paul Maurice get the best of the matchups on home ice. He moved the team’s Selke Trophy candidate duo on his top line, Aleksander Barkov and Reinhart, away from the Matthews line. Instead, that line dominated the John Tavares line.
Maurice threw known Leafs killer Brad Marchand over the boards to defend the Leafs’ top line and used the length and range of Seth Jones and Niko Mikkola on the blue line to limit Matthews’ shooting opportunities. It worked well enough for the Panthers to even the series.
But winning the Atlantic Division gives the Leafs home ice advantage. Now it’s on Berube to make the most of getting last change. Whether he can be cagey and decisive enough to put Matthews, Marner and others in prime playmaking and shooting opportunities could end up determining this series. —Kloke
How to watch
The puck drops in Toronto at 7 p.m. (ET) on Sportsnet, CBC, TVAS and ESPN.
(Photo of Nick Robertson on Tuesday: Andrew Francis Wallace / Toronto Star via Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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