NBA Playoffs picks, odds, schedule for Wednesday: Knicks, Timberwolves seek conference final berths

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Back in October, the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves did a fateful super-swap, with Wolves lifer Karl-Anthony Towns traded for two beloved Knicks that helped revive Madison Square Garden. Seven months later, both teams are one win away from conference finals berths. It’s a huge night for two of the NBA’s hungriest fan bases.

Standing in the way of such revelry is a pair of angry recent champions. The Boston Celtics, reigning champions, will try to spoil their rivals’ efforts and step up for fallen star Jayson Tatum. Then the Golden State Warriors, with four NBA titles since 2015, will mount a counter in hostile territory. Wednesday night could close out two branches of the bracket, or it could necessitate some Game 6 action.

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New York Knicks at Boston Celtics Game 5

Knicks lead series 3-1

Series odds: Knicks -600, Celtics +425

Monday was a refractive prism for two of the league’s oldest organizations.

Tatum’s fourth-quarter injury was gutting, and his recovery process will now dictate Boston’s future outlook. It puts a damper on an otherwise solid championship defense — 61 wins, top-five ratings on both ends of the floor, All-Star runs for Tatum and Jaylen Brown, plus Payton Pritchard’s Sixth Man of the Year award. Boston comes home to disquieting vibes, but there’s still enough talent and mettle to push the series onward.

On the other side, Monday was a fever dream for long-anguished Knicks fans, watching their point guard go superhero mode and notching another comeback playoff win. Jalen Brunson was spectacular in Game 4, a where-were-you-when performance of 39 points and 12 assists (to one turnover). The wings around him were locked in, and Towns added 23 points on clean 11-for-15 shooting.

How can New York close out the series? It seems like double-digit second-half deficits are somehow its key to victory. The Knicks won Games 1, 2 and 4 despite leading for a combined total of 34 minutes.

If Tom Thibodeau needs to write more on the whiteboard than “go down by 20 points and then make every shot as the crowd goes nuts,” perhaps he’ll roll with a bigger lineup for longer stretches. Mitchell Robinson has 11 offensive rebounds in the last two outings. He was a plus-6 on Monday, then a plus-19 in the Game 2 win, and his presence helps Towns avoid foul trouble.

New York will also try to wring better long-distance shooting from Towns (10 percent on 3s in this series), Mikal Bridges (23.8 percent) and Josh Hart (29.4). They can get away with all that when Brunson looks like a demigod and OG Anunoby serves his role, but the offense will need consistency from all five starters to reach the first conference final in 25 years.

Boston has a solid 118 offensive rating in these playoffs with Brown on the floor and Tatum off of it, though much of that damage was clocked against the Orlando Magic last round. Brown hits Wednesday’s tip-off with gnarly 37.7/22.6/70.8 shooting splits. Joe Mazzulla will likely give Pritchard a green light for this Tatum-less elimination game, and the rotations may keep downsizing in desperation with Kristaps Porziņģis looking borderline unplayable right now.

Music matchup: The Pixies rock, and “More Than a Feeling” is an all-time jam. But let’s be reasonable … this is a blowout for New York, with a juggernaut lineup ranging from Billy Joel to Biggie Smalls.

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Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 5

Timberwolves lead series 3-1

Series odds: Timberwolves -5000, Warriors +1600

So much awesomeness crowds the highlight queue in this postseason, but let’s not forget that Game 4 ice-cold Anthony Edwards halftime heave any time soon. It was, in his view, a Stephen Curry disciple moment.

Let’s not also forget how we as a public lambasted Julius Randle for his clutch-time struggles. Randle’s paltry playoff reputation was absolutely earned coming into this spring. That blockbuster October surprise to Minnesota may have been the much-needed correction. Randle put up a triple-double for the Timberwolves in Game 3, then followed with an efficient 31 points on Monday. He’s at 23.8 points per game on 48.3 percent shooting in his nine playoff games, now 48 minutes from his first-ever conference finals.

Edwards and Randle have been a dynamic 1-2 scoring punch, but Minnesota wouldn’t be in this spot without lights-out two-way work from Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid. Through four games, Reid has almost as many made 3s (10) as missed ones (11), while McDaniels boasts the best offensive rating and the best plus-minus on the team.

To seal the deal, Minnesota will try to get out in transition and nullify the Warriors’ zone defense. Edwards has been a ferocious full-court blitzer in the second half of these games, and the supporting cast really opens up late when he goes to the rim.

Golden State drew the short straw when Curry went down, and has been looking for ways to compensate for his gravity-warping presence. Jonathan Kuminga has fresh legs and presents frontcourt mismatches. He had 30 points in Game 3 and another 23 on Monday. Brandin Podziemski enjoyed a breakout regular season, and he deserves the extra shots he’ll take with Curry on ice, but Monday’s 3-for-14 obviously won’t cut it.

An inspired fight here would carve out space for a potential Curry return in Game 6. The Dubs are one “Playoff Jimmy” feature away from making this series real interesting.

Music matchup: What a cool draw here. Minnesota is the birthplace of Bob Dylan and home to The Replacements. Granted, it’s a heliocentric offense dominated by the one and only Prince. Before we call “game, blouses,” let’s note the Bay’s stacked musical talent. A balanced lineup including Sly Stone, Green Day, the Grateful Dead and E-40 might win this. It’s ultimately a matter of preference — purple or tie-dye?

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On this day (May 14) in NBA Playoffs history

1981 — Larry Bird dropped 27 points as his Celtics beat the Houston Rockets in six games to earn title No. 14. From the New York Times‘ archive:

“After it was all over, Red Auerbach, who had led the Celtics to nine championships, the last in 1965-66, was smoking his victory cigar. Bird grabbed the cigar, took one deep puff, coughed and let out a cheer, ‘We’re the champions.’”

Betting/odds, ticketing and streaming links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Julius Randle: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)

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