Premier League top-five odds: Chelsea in trouble, Nottingham Forest doomed?

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Just two matchdays remain in the Premier League and while the cluster of teams fighting for a top-five berth — and with it a spot in next season’s Champions League — has reduced to five for the final three spots, the fight between them feels closer and scrappier than ever.

Let’s look at each team’s latest results, inspect how that’s affected their odds of making it, and consider what might change in the next fortnight.

Where are Arsenal?

You might struggle to find odds for Arsenal to finish inside the top five now because bookmakers aren’t even bothering to price it up anymore — and who can blame them?

While it’s technically possible they can slip down to sixth, Opta’s supercomputer suggests there’s just a 0.1 per cent chance of that happening, such is their buffer to sixth place (five points) and, presumably, the fact one of their two remaining games is against 20th-placed Southampton.

The window to make easy (but small) gains on the Gunners achieving the bare minimum has officially closed.

Newcastle United (1/25)

Last week: 1/4

Newcastle’s 2-0 victory over fellow top-five candidates Chelsea last weekend was big. Like, really big.

It’s a result that has created separation between the Magpies and fifth and sixth places, which means they are effectively one win away from securing a Champions League berth. That’s clearly reflected in the odds.

Their remaining fixtures are Arsenal (A) and Everton (H). The former might be tricky, but the latter? The Toffees have nothing to play for except pride, while the Toon are on a run of five straight home wins — they’d be huge favourites if it came down to it.

Verdict: They’ll make it.

Manchester City (1/14)

Last week: 1/50

Incredibly, Man City slipped up last weekend, drawing 0-0 with bottom club Southampton. Defender Rúben Dias blasted the Saints’ approach after the game: “They don’t even try anything, they just sit, and they don’t even want to win the game!” But it changes nothing. Taking just one point here may have severe ramifications.

The bookmakers clearly believe this is an impactful result, shortening their odds from 1/50 to 1/14. Suddenly, things look much more complicated for the Citizens, who will play an FA Cup final this weekend while both Chelsea and Aston Villa both play — and potentially move ahead of them — in the league.

Verdict: You’d still expect them to make it, but this is getting…unexpectedly dicey.

Chelsea (4/7)

Last week: 1/3

Last weekend was an absolute disaster for Chelsea, who not only lost 2-0 to rivals Newcastle United but saw their one and only striker, Nicolas Jackson, sent off for violent conduct. He won’t play again this season.

The last time the Senegalese forward missed a batch of games was in February, resulting in the team’s form falling off a cliff. They lost three of their five league games, with two wins against Southampton and Leicester City.

Suddenly, their ability to get enough points against their remaining two opponents, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest, has been called into serious question.

Verdict: 4/7 is generous. They could be in trouble here.

Aston Villa (5/4)

Last week: 3/1

Seven wins from their last eight games, the latest of which came away to a rugged AFC Bournemouth side, have put Aston Villa in a position to capitalise. Win their next two games, against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United teams heavily distracted by the Europa League final, and they are highly likely to finish in the top five.

They have incredible momentum but are also battling injuries at the worst possible time. It would be a surprise to see Marcus Rashford or Youri Tielemans (their best player this season) again this term while Jacob Ramsey is suspended for the Spurs bout.

But if they can conquer the Lilywhites on Friday night, it will ramp up the pressure on the others and (temporarily at least) take them above Man City in the table. What mental effect will that have on the teams around them?

Verdict: It’s tough to bet against this team, on this run, considering the remaining fixtures

Nottingham Forest (9/2)

Last week: 8/5

Did you see Morgan Gibbs-White’s face after Forest’s 2-2 draw with Leicester City on Sunday? He was crestfallen, wearing the haunted look of a man who thinks his team may have let slip a golden opportunity.

“It’s frustrating” 🗣️

Morgan Gibbs-White reacts to Nottingham Forest’s draw against Leicester, dropping crucial points in the race for Champions League football ⚽️ pic.twitter.com/wNFbZQEo4b

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) May 11, 2025

For the first time since early December, Forest have dropped out of the top five. A run of one win in six, partly due to injuries finally biting them, represents their worst form of the season, and it’s come at just the wrong time.

This chase is now out of their hands. Six points from their remaining two fixtures (one of which, crucially, is against Chelsea) might be enough, but they need to beat the Blues and hope one other side drops enough points.

Verdict: This one might be slip, slip, slipping away.

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Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Nicolas Jackson: Stu Forster / Getty Images)

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