Why Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard’s next contract could be terrifying

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Evan Bouchard is a terrifying player who creates terrifying situations — in more ways than one.

For opposing teams, he’s one of the league’s scariest players from the back end, a dynamic puck-mover with no fear of jumping into the play with reckless abandon to facilitate offense. He creates odd-numbered situations for the Oilers that overwhelm defenses, adding substantially to Edmonton’s offensive superpower. The threat of his booming shot, the Bouch Bomb, is a true terror.

But for the Oilers, Bouchard is also one of the league’s scariest players from the back end, with a reputation for mental lapses at the most inopportune times, leading to some truly back-breaking goals against. The threat of his rush defense, the Bouch Blunder, is also a true terror.

The good scary heavily outweighs the bad scary to a degree that’s often greatly understated. Especially over the last two seasons. It’s a little bit of risk for a whole lot of reward. And that’s exactly what leads to what some might consider the scariest Bouchard situation yet: his next contract.

Bouchard — a right-shot franchise defenseman in his prime who plays tough minutes, creates obscene levels of offense and elevates his game in the playoffs — is about to get paid a terrifying number.

Bouchard is a complicated player to analyze.

His numbers are sparkling, but he does play in advantageous situations. He plays against tough competition, but that’s made a lot easier with the help he has up front (the two best players in the world) and next to him (one of the best shutdown defenders in the world). His usage, both offensively and defensively, is easier than average. That doesn’t discredit his contributions completely, but it does need to be considered.

Would Bouchard look this strong offensively without feeding Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl? Would he be able to handle tough minutes without Mattias Ekholm next to him to clean things up? As great as Bouchard’s numbers look most nights, those are valid questions to ask.

It comes down to expectations, especially offensively.

What should we expect a defenseman who plays a lot with McDavid and Draisaitl to do? Based on Bouchard’s raw offensive value, the expectation is that his average teammate would have an Offensive Rating of plus-4.7, but Bouchard’s teammates were actually at plus-7.3. That difference — one of the highest in the league but not dissimilar to Cale Makar’s, for example — should be accounted for.

Accounted for, but not discredited. It’s not all or nothing for any one player on the ice, and there’s a balance to be struck. Tyson Barrie’s output in a similar offensive situation (while being heavily sheltered) was significantly less prolific, especially at five-on-five.

On the flip side, while his eye test can be frustrating, Bouchard shouldn’t be defined by his big mistakes. On balance, the great things he does with the puck are worth considerably more than the occasional gaffe. And yes, they are occasional. Bouchard has grown considerably from the player he was earlier in his career, where those mistakes occur with far less frequency as he’s grown accustomed to playing higher in the lineup. Reputations can be hard to shed, and while Bouchard has his moments that make doing so difficult, they’ve been lessened considerably.

Last year’s playoffs, when Bouchard was on for just 1.89 xGA/60 and an equally impressive 1.87 GA/60, were a testament to that. It felt as if you could count Bouchard’s big mistakes on one hand during the entire run, an exercise you’d sometimes need just one game for during his first few seasons. Bouchard was a big part of Edmonton’s march to the Stanley Cup Final, where he helped the Oilers control the pace of play every night.

His defensive numbers in this year’s playoffs away from Darnell Nurse have been comparably strong, at least in chances allowed. The Oilers have allowed 1.78 xGA/60 with Bouchard on the ice, low enough to make an .881 on-ice save percentage manageable, where the Oilers have only allowed 2.44 GA/60 with Bouchard on the ice. While that was something to consider to some degree early in his career, when he played soft minutes given his many defensive errors, he gets a pass this time. Considering the goalies he’s playing in front of, who he’s facing and the lack of Ekholm, allowing 2.44 GA/60 is more than acceptable. Against Vegas in particular, Bouchard has absolutely dominated his minutes (9-2 scoreline with 61 percent of the expected goals).

Bouchard is about to get paid a terrifying number. (Stephen R. Sylvanie / Imagn Images)

To sum it all up, Bouchard is an elite offensive defenseman whose numbers should be discounted a touch for who he gets to play with, but not too much. Defensively, he’s grown to be more than adequate and shouldn’t be viewed through the same lens as the player he was in his first few seasons (his projected Defensive Rating has climbed from minus-3.9 after his rookie season to plus-0.8 today). But he does have his warts.

That leads to someone the model considers to be a top 10 defenseman — one whose offensive contributions are surpassed by only three defenders (Makar, Quinn Hughes, Zach Werenski), but whose defensive ability is probably closer to second-pair caliber.

Bouchard’s projected Net Rating for next season, as a result of his hefty offensive value, is plus-15. How much is that worth in a rapidly escalating cap world?

That’s where things get scary. Again, in more ways than one.

I don’t know if people are truly prepared for some of the sticker shock that’s about to quickly come as a result of an exploding salary cap.

Here’s an example of that.

An average No. 1 defenseman is worth 10 goals above average, according to Net Rating. Typically, that’s worth around 10.5 percent of the cap. Let’s call it 10 percent just to make things easier.

In 2009-10, that meant a $5.7 million contract, as it did for Sergei Gonchar (plus-10.7 Net Rating, $5.5 million cap hit).

In 2018-19, that meant an $8.0 million contract, as it did for John Carlson (plus-9.4 Net Rating, $8.0 million cap hit).

In 2025-26, that means a $9.5 million contract. The following year, it means $10.4 million. The year after that, it means $11.3 million. And in the five years after that, it could mean anywhere from $12 million to $14 million, depending on inflation.

If a defenseman can consistently be counted on to be worth 10 goals of value for the next eight years, we’re talking a $12 million deal.

Another way of looking at it is in purchasing power. A $9.5 million deal is worth 10 percent of the cap and gets you an average-ish No. 1 defenseman now. By Year 8 of a deal, it could be worth less than seven percent of the cap, where the expectation is a Net Rating of plus-3.8 — or a low-end No. 2 defenseman.

Bouchard’s starting point, as you may recall, is 15 goals of value, which is considerably higher than our example. That equates to a starting point of $13.1 million. Put seven years of ageing next to that based on how 26-year-old defenders typically mature as well as Bouchard’s best comparables, and you get this: an absurd and definitely scary $14.5 million valuation. (If you believe the model overrates him by 2.5 goals per year, which is fair enough, the valuation drops to $12.7 million.)

That’s based on Bouchard being a top 10 defenseman now, but still projecting to be an average No. 1 by the end of the deal. He starts out being worth 13.7 percent of the cap (Erik Karlsson signed for 14 percent in 2019 when he was three years older than Bouchard) and ends at 10.5 percent. But because the cap is going up so rapidly, his average value over eight years ends up being 14.9 percent of the 2025-26 cap.

Here’s how that looks next to the expectation that comes with Evolving Hockey’s contract projections: a seemingly more sensible $10.6 million per year.

That dotted line shows the expectation that comes with a $10.6 million deal for a defenseman and it’s that large difference between Bouchard’s projected output and what’s expected of him that’s terrifying … for 31 other teams.

There’s no shot Bouchard gets Draisaitl money and $11 million is probably a lot closer to what he’ll get. That leaves a whole lot of surplus value for the Oilers, giving a team with the league’s best top end the flexibility to add to the bottom (hopefully better than they have to date). That’s the way to build a sustainable contender: steep discounts at the top of the lineup in order to stack the deck elsewhere. It’s what helps make the Panthers and Hurricanes elite teams year after year.

The Oilers have had that same benefit thanks to the paltry by comparison contracts for McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard. And a rapidly growing cap environment sets the stage for the Oilers to keep reaping that reward. They already will with Draisaitl, who is going to be worth well more than $14 million going forward (partly due to his own improvement after the contract was signed, mind you). And the same will likely be true on a new Bouchard deal. The more surplus value a team has on the books, the fewer sacrifices they have to make elsewhere. That’s about to be made a lot easier with a rising cap environment.

With that in mind, term length could become a massive competitive advantage, especially if teams aren’t paying the expected premium for future value. That was certainly the old way to do it, especially to get costs down as future years were often cheaper. That might not be the case now, where future years could be more expensive — and maybe too expensive to fit under next year’s cap. Bouchard’s projected eight-year value, even after accounting for age effects, would be a 10 percent premium on his 2025-26 value. The math isn’t mathing, and that could mean a lot of future savings for teams who opt for alternate accounting (i.e., only considering cap percentages for the next three years of certainty).

What that all means is that the Oilers are probably going to get Bouchard for a steal, thanks partly to his value being arguably higher than his reputation and thanks as well to a rising cap. The longer the deal, the bigger the steal.

Having Bouchard and Draisaitl locked up for, say, $25 million for the next eight years would be incredibly good value for the Oilers. And bad for every other team that faces them. Instead of needing to sacrifice depth to afford two superstars, the Oilers will instead have an extra $6 million on the books to work with.

That’s if everything goes according to plan, of course.

As good as Bouchard looks now, his next deal still comes with the risk of who he’ll be going forward — and there are some potentially scary paths ahead.

Bouchard is a bit of a unicorn in the sense that he’s a player without many close comparables. Few defenders have provided his level of value to begin with, and those who have were more complete players.

That leaves us only two above-average comparable 26-year-old defenders: John Klingberg and Kris Letang. Literally a worst and best case scenario.

At his absolute peak, Klingberg was fairly similar to Bouchard. He possessed elite offensive skills and puck-moving ability while playing often with two of the game’s best forwards. He also elevated his game to new heights come playoff time, as evidenced by his work in 2019 and 2020. His defensive play at the time was sometimes questionable, but mostly passable. The good greatly outweighed the bad, enough to make Klingberg an extremely valuable defenseman.

Now, imagine the world of pain the Stars might still be in today if Klingberg had been a free agent in 2018 or 2019 instead of 2022. That’s the biggest concern the Oilers face: What if Bouchard falls off as quickly and swiftly as Klingberg did? Klingberg went from being a plus-16 defender to a below-average one in the span of just five years (though injuries certainly helped speed up that process).

The same could just as easily be said about Letang, who for an entire decade was a perfect picture of consistency for the Penguins. From 2012 to 2022, only Karlsson scored more points per game than Letang’s 0.81 among defensemen. During that stretch, Letang was dominant at five-on-five, playing tough minutes — with the occasional big mistake, of course. While he was always in the shadow of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, there’s no doubt Letang was a big piece of the puzzle there.

Now imagine what that decade of Penguins hockey would look like without Letang. Yes, they won a Cup without him, but they also weren’t winning in 2016 without him, given his performance that year. And the difference between those two versions of the Penguins was glaring throughout the run. The 2016 winners dominated every step of the way, and the 2017 winners felt like a miracle given the defense corps. By Net Rating, Letang was considered a top 10 defender in almost every one of his next eight seasons after he turned 26.

If the Oilers knew Bouchard would age exactly like Klingberg, they’d move off him (or sign a short-term deal). If they knew Bouchard would age exactly like Letang, he might already be signed. The immense chasm between those two possibilities is what makes signing Bouchard long-term so tricky.

There are other below-average comparables that can help fill in the gap; interestingly, pure offensive defenders who didn’t have Bouchard’s upside and were even more of an adventure defensively. Whether it’s lower-tier guys relative to Bouchard (Mike Green, P.K. Subban, Dougie Hamilton) or the extreme poor-man’s versions (Shayne Gostisbehere, Kevin Shattenkirk, Torey Krug), it’s clear these defensemen are of a type. That’s good news for our purposes; the similarity calculator did its job. But it might be bad news for the Oilers because it’s not a type that ages well.

On average, a 26-year-old defender is expected to lose 2.1 goals of offensive value over the following eight years and 1.0 goals of defensive value. Bouchard’s 10 best comps lost 6.1 goals of offensive value and 2.1 goals of defensive value instead. Letang may just be the exception to the rule.

There are two key things to note here.

The first is a reminder that Bouchard is very unique. That there are only two above-average comps speaks to that (not even great comps at that), and it’s helpful to know one of them was a rock star for the next decade and the other had health complications that may be unfair to project onto Bouchard.

The second is that Bouchard is starting from a higher level, which means he has a lot more room to fall. Even if he ages as poorly as the average of his 10 best comps, his value still comes in at $12.5 million. Essentially, consider him a rich man’s Hamilton (whose contract would be the equivalent of $10.5 million in today’s environment) and he’s probably fine.

That helps alleviate some of the risk factor of signing Bouchard to a big deal, as does the knowledge that the cap is going up. But it’s not enough to completely turn off the fear factor that comes with signing Bouchard to a max-term deal.

The Letang Path may arguably be the most likely given the circumstances, but the red flags branching off from it aren’t exactly comforting. Bouchard’s numbers may make a big contract seem like a no-brainer, but as with everything surrounding Bouchard, it’s never quite that simple.

The off-ice Bouchard contract conundrum is a microcosm for the on-ice Bouchard conundrum.

There’s a good chance the Oilers will get a Bouch Bomb out of it, an absolute home run given his present-day value and the unlikelihood that Bouchard signs a deal that approximates his on-ice impact. The small risk is probably worth the big reward.

But the small chance of the Oilers getting a Bouch Blunder simply cannot be ignored, and is utterly terrifying. The red flags surrounding the way his archetypes usually age, not to mention some of the concerns surrounding his game to begin with, should be considered. Even if it’s small, there’s still risk in a long-term deal, perhaps more than with a similarly valuable player.

Does that risk outweigh the potential reward that Bouchard could bring for the next eight years on a mispriced contract? With Bouchard, isn’t that always the question? Risk vs. reward.

Over the last two years, the risk in Bouchard’s game has been well worth the reward. There is no question about that, as the Oilers are a much better team with him on the ice. We got proof of that in the team’s 2024 Cup Final run, and we’re getting more of it this year with the team one win away from the conference finals.

Now the Oilers must decide if the same will be true when they put ink to paper — and for how long. Term length could be a competitive advantage in a rapidly rising cap environment, but for Bouchard, the threat of poor ageing means it might be better to be safe than sorry.

With Bouchard, the risk-reward ratio is always the top thing to consider, and that’s never been more true than when looking at his next deal. Will it be a Bouch Bomb or a Bouch Blunder? My money is on the former as there’s usually more good scary than bad scary. But the threat of bad scary still lingers.

— Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick and PuckPedia

(Top photo: Perry Nelson / Imagn Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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