Fantasy baseball bullpen report featuring slumping closers Jeff Hoffman, Raisel Iglesias

Sports

add

After each week passes, more changes present themselves across the high-leverage ecosystem. Texas had two relievers suffer an injury in consecutive days, though it’s being reported neither is serious — fantasy managers make preparations in case the news cycle shifts. Last week’s closer concern from the National League (Ryan Pressly) has been working in lower-leverage outings but has not regained his lost closer title.

Relievers in Miami, Pittsburgh and Arizona have been repositioned in my leverage pathways. Recognizing how a manager prefers handling high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels:

Mostly linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it’s usually a predictable leverage pathway.

Primary save share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves. However, he may also be used in matchup-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings. This provides multiple relievers with save chances each series or week throughout the season.

Matchup-based: Usually, two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes, based on handedness, rest or recent usage patterns to keep them fresh. While these situations typically rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can also become involved. Some teams also prefer a matchup-based option, assigning pitchers a hitter pocket for a series, which creates fluid save opportunities.

In-flux: The manager has not confirmed the projected closer based on past struggles or rough spring appearances.

Access The Athletic’s guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball.

American League leverage pathways

Relievers on the rise

Yariel Rodríguez (TOR): He owns a four-game scoreless streak, with holds in three. He recorded 10 strikeouts (52.6% K-BB) over his 5.2 innings with a minuscule 0.351 WHIP.

Mason Montgomery (TB): He posted his first career save and has three holds in his past 5.2 innings, with seven strikeouts against two walks (25% K-BB), a 0.71 WHIP, and a 15.7 SwStr%.

Closer concern

Jeff Hoffman (TOR): After a tremendous start to the season, results have gone sideways for the closer. It’s been a tale of two splits for him:

• First 14 games: Three wins, seven saves in as many chances, a 23:2 K:BB, with a .161 BAA, a .427 OPS, one home run, and a .242 BABIP across 16.1 innings.
• Past five games: Two losses, two saves in four chances, an 8:2 K:BB, with a .500 BAA, a 1.546 OPS, and a .778 BABIP through three innings.

Including his recent meltdowns, he has recorded 19.1 innings this season with a 6.05 ERA but a 1.62 SIERA and a 2.04 xERA. His .357 BABIP sits 79 points above last year. His underlying metrics remain stable compared to the previous two seasons:

His contract and pedigree should ensure his role, but migrating his upcoming results toward his SIERA and xERA needs to occur. Focus on his results with the split finger and slider.

National League leverage pathways

Relievers on the Rise

Jordan Romano (PHI): He’s converted saves in consecutive appearances and three of his past six (all scoreless efforts), while recording a 0.50 WHIP with eight strikeouts (38.1 K-BB%) across six innings. After undergoing a rough patch earlier this season, he has found a rhythm with his new team and has earned a larger save share.

Jesús Tinoco (MIA): After missing time on the injured list in April, he’s wrested away the primary save share with the Marlins, converting two of his past three chances and four saves total this season. There will be bumps in the road and some lean weeks, but if he’s emerging as the closer under Clayton McCullough, there’s value in mixed leagues of 12 teams or more.

Closer Concerns

Raisel Iglesias (ATL): Contact, specifically quality of contact, has not been his friend this season. Through his first 17 appearances, he owns a 6.05 ERA with a 2.93 SIERA and a 5.72 xERA. This represents a broad band of potential outcomes in his underlying data. Because xERA factors in type of contact, it’s crucial for fantasy managers to take a look under the hood, beginning with his rolling expected wOBA chart:

He’s allowed 49 batted ball events this season, with a 28.6 LD% — more than nine percentage points higher than last season. Of more significant concern, he’s given up eight barrels, causing a disparity between the types of contact produced:

• 2% weak contact plus 6.1% pop-ups = 8.1% poor contact induced
• 16.3% barrels plus 8.2% solid contact = 24.5% good contact allowed

Last year, he finished with 14.3% poor contact induced, while allowing 7.4% good contact. He’s already given up six home runs (four on his slider) and allowed multiple hits in five of his past eight appearances. Fantasy managers hope his ERA trends toward his SIERA, not his xERA, but the contact allowed must improve.

Emilio Pagán (CIN): He’s allowed at least a run in three of his past four appearances and four of his past seven. This may finish his regression toward the mean since his SIERA (3.32) and his xERA (3.64) both reside below his actual ERA (4.05). There have been gaps of inconsistency throughout his career, which makes trusting him difficult. However, he’s been solid this year, and his rolling graph provides hope, but results must follow for him to remain in the ninth inning for the Reds:

► Updated Tiered Rankings for Saves and SOLDS

2025 leaderboards

Save stashes

• Tony Santillan (CIN)
• Robert Garcia (TEX)
• Seth Halvorsen (COL)
• Camilo Doval (SF)
• Robert Stephenson (LAA) *currently on rehab assignment

Ancillary save options

• Kirby Yates (LAD)
• Yimi García (TOR)
• Jason Adam (SD)
• Lucas Erceg (KC)
• Pierce Johnson (ATL)
• Mason Montgomery (TB)
• Andrew Kittredge (BAL) *activation imminent

Ratio relievers

*Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios.

• Brant Hurter (DET)
• Kyle Leahy (STL)
• Grant Holman (ATH)

Statistical Credits (through games played on May 14): Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, BaseballSavant.com and BrooksBaseball.net

Check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey for daily updates.

(Photo of Jeff Hoffman: Nick Turchiaro / Imagn Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

Share on

email

Previous

trending_flat

From ‘magical’ to ‘legendary’: Drivers describe the Indy 500 in one word

motor

Next

trending_flat

2025 PGA Championship: Rory McIlroy disappoints at Quail Hollow in first major round since Masters triumph

Sports