The Thursday NBA playoff schedule feature only one game with the Denver Nuggets hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder for Game 6 of their Western Conference semifinal series. Tip-off at Ball Arena is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. OKC leads the series 3-2 after its 112-105 win in Game 5. The Thunder are 59-33 overall and 26-19 in road games against the spread this season. The Nuggets are 45-47-2 overall and 22-24-1 at home against the spread this season, but are 4-1 ATS in this series.
Oklahoma City is favored by 4.5 points, while the over/under is 216.5 points in the latest Nuggets vs. Thunder odds. Denver is listed as a +162 (risk $100 to win $162) home underdog on the moneyline. As the only game on the Thursday NBA slate, there will be a plethora of game and player props available on the betting markets as well. Before making any NBA picks or building any NBA parlay cards for Thunder vs. Nuggets in Game 6, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the conference semifinals of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 159-117 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
The model has broken down the Thunder vs. Nuggets odds for Game 6 on Thursday and just revealed its top picks and NBA player props. Combining the model’s top four Over/Under player point total prop picks into an NBA parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook would result in a payout of +950 (risk $100 to win $950).
Now, here are the model’s top player point total prop bets for Thursday’s Game 6 matchup between Denver and OKC:
Nikola Jokic under 28.5 points (-115)
Jokic is coming off an outstanding performance in Game 5, where he scored 44 points in the Nuggets’ loss. He is averaging 30.0 points per game during the series, and 26.5 points per game during the postseason. However, Jokic has been held to 20 points or less in two of his last four meetings with OKC. The SportsLine model is projecting Jokic to finish with 26.9 points.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 points (-125)
SGA is averaging 28.0 points per game during the postseason, but has scored 31 or more points in three of the five games in this series. The former Kentucky star is averaging 30.3 points per game against the Nuggets this season. The SportsLine model is projecting Gilgeous-Alexander to finish with 30.6 points.
Luguentz Dort over 8.5 points (-125)
Dort has been a difference maker for OKC in this series, and enters Game 6 averaging 8.1 points per game during the postseason. He is averaging 12.0 points per game against the Nuggets this season, and 9.4 points per game in this series. The SportsLine model is projecting Dort to finish with 9.8 points.
Michael Porter Jr. over 8.5 points (-120)
Porter has struggled in this series, but has the ability to take games over on the offensive end when his shot is falling. The 26-year-old is averaging 9.3 points per game during the postseason, and 7.2 points per game during this series. The SportsLine model is projecting Porter to finish with 11.8 points.
Combine these picks for a shot at a +950 payout at DraftKings. Bet it now at DraftKings and get $200 in Bonus Bets instantly when you wager $5.
Want more NBA picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s Nuggets vs. Thunder best prop bets for Thursday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s top NBA picks from expert Mike Barner, who’s on a sizzling 164-113 roll on his last 277 NBA player props picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up more than 31 units.
This news was originally published on this post .
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