Smart bettors are backing Arsenal and Barcelona women in Europe – so should you

Sports

add

For more stories like this click here to follow The Athletic’s sports betting section and have them added to your feed.

Bookmakers perk up when they hear Arsenal vs Barcelona — especially when it comes to men’s football, and the added label of global following and storied reputations. But, prestige can often inflate odds regardless of performance on the pitch.

Enter exhibit A into the evidence folder: Arsenal’s men’s team haven’t reached a Champions League final in nearly two decades, while Barcelona’s cohort have a knack for crumbling under pressure. In contrast, Barca have made the UEFA Women’s Champions League (UWCL) final six years in a row, while Arsenal’s women continue to punch above their weight in the post-Jonas Eidevall era.

So, if history and brand matter to the marketeers, why are the men’s teams still getting shorter odds? And how can bettors gain the upper hand in the women’s game ahead of the May 24 final in Lisbon?

Betting on inefficiency — why the women’s teams deserve your bet

Brand prestige shapes perception, but betting markets are meant to price reality instead of pandering to public opinion. More often than not, the latter influences the odds, highlighting the inertia of market behaviour and outdated models. Savvy punters can exploit this discrepancy, especially when comparing Arsenal and Barca’s men’s and women’s teams.

Men’s teams: Reputation vs performance

Despite Barca’s illustrious reputation, this year featured the club’s first Champions League semifinal since 2019, including failing to progress beyond the group stage in 2021-22 and 2022-2023. However, bookmakers continue to price them as top-tier contenders.

On the other hand, the Gunners returned to the Champions League last season with significant market optimism. Mikel Arteta’s side topped their group with a plus-12 goal difference, the highest in the group stage, but failed to go all the way in the knockouts. This season, there was a sense of inevitability around their semi-final exit, as they came up against a Paris Saint-Germain side with superior squad depth and European pedigree.

Women’s teams: Undervalued excellence

In stark contrast, Barca’s women’s team have established themselves as a dominant force in Europe. Pere Romeu’s side secured UWCL titles in 2021, 2023 and 2024, alongside winning Liga F for the past six seasons. Yet, their consistent high-level performance hasn’t always been accurately reflected in betting markets, which sometimes lag in adjusting to the realities of the ever-changing women’s football space.

This misalignment presents a clear opportunity for bettors. Recognizing and acting on these market inefficiencies can lead to more informed and potentially profitable betting decisions.

The problem with betting on hope

When it comes to Champions League betting, emotion is often the biggest liability. Many punters don’t just wager on outcomes, they bet on narratives. Arsenal fans have waited decades to see their men’s team lift a European trophy. That hope, paired with strong domestic form, fuels the familiar belief: “This is finally our year.”

The Barcelona men, meanwhile, continue to attract short odds based on name recognition and individual talent despite some questionable European performances. The assumption is “They’re too talented to go out early.” But when legacy clubs attract public money, odds tighten not because of actual data, but rather due to bias, nostalgia and loyalty. Emotion masquerading as logic distorts the market.

In the UWCL, betting volume is lower. With less emotional weight driving odds, the lines tend to reflect reality. Punters who follow the women’s game and understand the nuances — head-to-heads, injuries, squad rotation, tactical matchups — are often rewarded. This year alone, Barca showcased their ruthless dominance by dismantling Chelsea 8–2 on aggregate across two legs in the semi-finals. Those paying attention to Arsenal know that despite their injuries and tactical problems this season, they shouldn’t be written off.

Chelsea 1-4 Barcelona (agg 2-8) pic.twitter.com/tH8bKINWFC

— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) April 27, 2025

What’s next in women’s football betting

As we approach this season’s UWCL final, the bookmakers are finally catching up to the dominance of Barca’s women’s team. Currently, the Spaniards are heavy favourites with odds of 1/4, while Arsenal stand at 11/2.

Barca’s journey to Lisbon has been nothing short of dominant. After an early setback against Manchester City on Matchday 1, they bounced back emphatically, scoring 26 goals in the group stage. Their attacking prowess is further highlighted by Ewa Pajor, who’s netted 23 goals in Liga F since her arrival from Wolfsburg, and back-to-back Ballon d’Or winner Aitana Bonmatí — both enticing options for the first and anytime scorer markets.

Arsenal’s path to the final included overturning deficits against Häcken FC and Real Madrid, alongside a 4-1 away victory over eight-time champions Lyon after dropping the first leg. Joint WSL Golden Boot winner Alessia Russo has been instrumental to the Gunners’ success and is another solid pick for anytime scorer.

For bettors, the current odds suggest limited value in backing Barca outright. However, opportunities lie in alternative markets. Given Barcelona’s habit of scoring freely, betting over 2.5 goals at 4/9 or 3.5 goals at 6/5 could be worthwhile. Additionally, considering Arsenal’s attacking threats, Both teams to score is another market to explore, with a Barca win plus BTTS valued at 6/4.

Looking ahead to next season, early futures betting in the women’s game could offer value. With Barca’s consistent performance and Arsenal’s upward trajectory, monitoring their domestic form and squad developments will be a crucial indicator of the oddsmakers’ intentions.

More Women’s Champions League stories

Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Aitana Bonmati: David Ramos / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

Share on

email

Previous

trending_flat

The last great NBA dynasty? The Warriors’ golden era seemingly ends, but their blueprint lives on

Sports

Next

trending_flat

Jaylen Brown, Celtics regroup to save season in Game 5: ‘We did it for JT’

Sports