The tight end position, in the projections below, looks a lot like the tight end position we’ve all come to know and… well, not love. Nine tight ends are projected to average 10 Fantasy points per game. A full dozen are projected to score between 8.3 and 9.9 FPPG. It doesn’t look great. But there are ways that could change.
The most obvious is if the rookies surprise. Neither Colston Loveland or Tyler Warren are projected to top 10 FPPG in Year 1. While we have had some exceptions lately with Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers, the rule is still that tight ends generally take some time to become must-start options. I will still rank and draft Loveland as a top-12 option because of his talent and upside, but I am more cautious with Warren due to his quarterback situation.
The second opportunity for the position to look better than I project is if we get bounce back seasons from Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and LaPorta . Last year the trio disappointed, and finished seventh, eighth and ninth in FPPG respectively. The projections come out far more optimistic on Kelce, and the reason why helps to illustrate some core principles in projecting one year to the next.
Kelce averaged 12.2 FPPG last year, an extreme drop off from the year before, but still earned 133 targets. His biggest problem was that his efficiency crashed and he only scored three touchdowns. Because he will be 36 this season, I will not project any sort of regression back to his 2023 efficiency, as a rule I don’t project bounce back seasons from older players who show decline, but it would be surprising if his touchdown rate stays that low. Volume, as a rule, is more predictable than touchdowns, and Kelce’s volume last year was still outstanding. He projects for 12.8 FPPG next year, not quite a bounce back, and still well below his career marks.
Andrews was the exact opposite. He only saw 69 targets in 17 games, but scored 11 touchdowns. That’s a 15.9% touchdown rate! His career mark is 8.1%, even after last year. As a rule, I don’t project tight ends for higher than a 7% rate. He’s also turning 30 years old in September, not young, particularly for a player who just saw his target share crater. The projections only have Andrews at 8.5 FPPG. I will rank and draft him higher because of the upside, but the math looks really problematic.
LaPorta falls somewhere in between, with 83 targets and seven scores in 16 games. While I do project him as a top-eight tight end, I am not going to be able to draft LaPorta with where I have him ranked. I have too many questions about Jameson Williams‘ growing role and the Lions offense without Ben Johnson. Like Andrews, if you want to draft LaPorta at cost, you’re going to have to draft him well above his mean projection and hope for the upside.
Here are my updated Dynasty Tight End Projections:
This news was originally published on this post .
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