2025 NFL power ratings: How the betting market is valuing all 32 teams for Week 1 and where to find value

The NFL announced the 2025 schedule this week, locking all 272 regular-season matchups into place, including the 16 featured in Week 1. The Week 1 slate includes a Cowboys vs. Eagles opener, a Chiefs vs. Chargers game in Brazil and a Ravens vs. Bills showdown on Sunday Night Football. Sportsbooks quickly posted lines for every Week 1 game, and while the betting market saw some initial adjustments on certain matchups, particularly if the spreads posted were outliers at one or two books, we now have a pretty good idea as to how the market is initially rating all 32 NFL teams.

The biggest favorites on the board are the Broncos (vs. Titans) and Commanders (vs. Giants), both as high as -7.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, though there are more 7.5s in the market for the Broncos than the Commanders as of Friday. The Bengals have taken early action and are now 5.5-point favorites on the road against the Browns at a majority of books. The most interesting line on the slate may be in Lions vs. Packers, as there has been some disagreement on which team should be favored in the matchup.

Many NFL bettors (including myself) will use a power ratings system for projecting what they believe the spread should be for a given matchup and use that as the baseline for their analysis of whether or not to make a bet on the spread. Such a system is able to help identify situations where the sportsbooks may be underrating or overrating a team when lines are initially posted, and that can help bettors take quick positions when, for example, the Bengals are listed as too short of favorites on the initial release.

My power ratings system combines the difference in rating between the two teams with my unique home-field advantage number for each home team for a spread projection I think makes sense, and when it differs considerably from what’s available in the market, I have to determine how much confidence I have in my ratings for those teams or whether something else is at play before locking in a best bet. I’ve already shared my four best bets for Week 1 over at SportsLine based on my numbers.

Below, I’ve moved teams around in my ratings based on the actual consensus spread in the market and a more standard home-field advantage number for most teams to create power ratings for Week 1 that I believe reflects how the market is treating all 32 teams at this point in the offseason. The Week 1 spreads were the main factor in building these ratings, but I also tried to use the NFL win totals listed at FanDuel Sportsbook to help be a guiding presence in these ratings, though there are inevitably some contradictions that can’t be helped.

So what do the numbers say about the state of the NFL? Let’s get into it.

Week 1 betting market ratings

Here’s how the ratings work: an average NFL team gets a zero rating, no better or worse than the median of the league. That applies to the Vikings and Cardinals here, two teams with win totals right at 8.5 (which is 50% of a team’s 17-game schedule). Teams that are better than average have positive ratings, and teams that are worse than average have negative ratings. As a reminder, the win totals don’t perfectly align with a team’s rating for several reasons, including the difficulty of the team’s division and/or schedule, but they are a general guide of team quality.

The difference between two teams’ ratings tells you what the spread should be if those teams face on a neutral field. The Chiefs and Chargers are set to do just that in Week 1, and the spread for that game is Chiefs -2.5 at most books, though the Chiefs are three-point favorites at DraftKings. Our market rating has the Chiefs at +4.5 and the Chargers at +2, so the market spread is reflected correctly. With a spread of 3 in play, we should also keep in mind that the Chiefs may have a slightly higher rating, the Chargers a slightly lower rating, or both.

In order to project a spread for every other game, we must add home-field advantage in, which in recent years has been anywhere from 1.5 to 2 points. We’ve used 1.5 points as our baseline for most teams, but some with proven home-field advantages like Denver get the bump to 2 points for this exercise.

Potential value in the market

If a team does not look properly rated in the table above, that means there’s an opportunity to investigate further and potentially lock in a best bet. For example, the 49ers‘ win total of 10.5 is out of place with many of the teams with similar ratings having a win total of 9.5, so if we think the 49ers are actually better than that group, we may think 1.5 is not enough points to be laying on the road in Seattle. 

The Bengals are another team that could be a tick too low, while the Steelers appear to be too high while holding a positive rating, though it’s worth noting their win total could be chalked up to the difficulty of their division on a yearly basis.

One potential play that could be worth targeting is the Falcons as home underdogs, especially with +2.5 available at DraftKings. That implies a difference of four points in ratings, and with the consensus line being a shade lower, we have 3.5 points of difference in their rating. However, Tampa Bay appears aggressively rated at +2 with its win total when you consider the division it plays in, while Atlanta also seems to fit better with the group a half-point to a full point ahead of it in the ratings. That suggests a fair line in the game may be more like Buccaneers -1 in Atlanta.

These are just examples; if any other teams stand out to you as incorrect in the betting market table above, you may have found a betting opportunity to grab now at one of the best sports betting apps before the lines shift over the summer.