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Premier League title race? Done. Ligue 1, Bundesliga, La Liga? Finished. There’s little joy left in these leagues, but in Serie A? Everything is in play.
This weekend is shaping up to be truly decisive in Italy’s top tier, as champions could be crowned, the top four could be sealed, and the relegation situation could be flipped on its head. Let’s walk through those three scenarios and apply a betting lens to them, discussing the odds for each along the way.
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Inter or Napoli? Title could be decided on Sunday
- Napoli to win the title: 7/20
- Inter to win the title: 9/4
Napoli’s 2-2 draw at home to Genoa last week made things tighter at the top, as it allowed Inter to pull within just a point of them, having beaten Torino 2-0 hours before.
Antonio Conte described it as a night of “bitterness and regret,” admitting they’d lost a key advantage they held over the Nerazzurri. But they’re still ahead, and if they were to beat Parma while Inter lose to Lazio, the title would officially be theirs. It also remains the case that if they simply win their final two games, the Scudetto will be secured.
The bookmakers aren’t particularly high on the Partenopei being crowned this weekend — Napoli to win and Inter to lose is priced up at 6.5/1, implying a 13 per cent chance of it happening — but stranger things have happened. After all, Lazio are fifth and still in the hunt for Champions League football. They have all the motivation in the world to go and put a fork in the Nerazzurri’s domestic season.
Juventus in the box seat for Champions League qualification
Top four odds
- Juventus: 4/7
- Lazio: 4/1
- Roma: 7/2
- Bologna: 12/1
Speaking of Europe’s premier competition, Juventus, Lazio, Roma, Bologna, Milan and Fiorentina are all fighting for fourth place. That said, La Viola’s chances of usurping that entire cluster of teams is extremely low, priced at 500/1 for good reason.
It’s Juve’s spot to lose; they currently occupy fourth place and also hold the head-to-head or goal difference tiebreaker over all of the chasing pack. If they beat Udinese this weekend, which they’re 1/3 favourites to do, Milan and Fiorentina are officially toast. If the Bianconeri win, and then any of Lazio, Roma and Bologna fail to secure three points, they’re done too.
That should have the Old Lady feeling pretty good about this weekend. Sunday could see a tumultuous season — in which they made an incredibly late managerial switch from Thiago Motta to Igor Tudor at the end of March — wrap up in positive fashion.
The plot thickens further, given Roma are playing Milan. To preserve their own top-four hopes, they might end up knocking each other out of contention. The Rossoneri are coming off a gut-wrenching 1-0 Coppa Italia final loss to Bologna in midweek, too, making Roma to win at 5/4 a really nice bet.
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Empoli’s bid to avoid the drop
Relegation odds
- Leece: 4/11
- Venezia: 1/2
- Empoli: 8/15
- Parma: 12/1
Empoli could barely ask for a better fixture at this stage of the season. Stuck down in 19th place and seeking a win to lift themselves out of danger, they have the good fortune of playing 20th-placed, already-relegated Monza.
It should be noted that Monza’s doomed status doesn’t make them an automatic victory — they beat Udinese last weekend, randomly breaking a 15-game winless streak. But the point remains: it doesn’t get any easier. Empoli are 4/6 to win, the first time they’ve been favourites for a game in some time.
This will have 18th-placed Lecce, who face 11th-placed Torino, and 17th-placed Venezia, who play 14th-placed Cagliari, on high alert. If either slip up and Empoli win, they’ll be replacing them in the relegation zone.
On the other side of that coin, if Empoli lose and the other two win, the Azzurri Empolesi will be relegated on Sunday. The stakes are through the roof.
📅 #MonzaEmpoli, trentasettesima giornata di #SerieAEnilive, si giocherà domenica 18 maggio alle ore 20.45 e sarà trasmessa da Dazn pic.twitter.com/KtI1PsgZuI
— Empoli Football Club Official (@EmpoliFC) May 13, 2025
Avoid the lone Saturday game
Over the course of this preview, we’ve referenced almost every Serie A team, as an incredible nine games out of 10 have something riding on them. As a result, they’re all scheduled to be played at the same time — 7.45 p.m. BST on Sunday.
The only match in Italy’s top tier with nothing riding on it is Genoa vs Atalanta. The former are safe in midtable, the latter have safely qualified for the Champions League, and this game cannot affect any of the battles taking place up and down the table.
Avoid that one like the plague from a betting perspective; it might as well be a post-season friendly!
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Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Romelu Lukaku: Francesco Pecoraro / Getty Images)
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