Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Astros starter against Rangers at plus odds

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Friday sees all 30 MLB teams in action, including a Subway Series clash between the New York Mets and New York Yankees, as well as the Seattle Mariners at the San Diego Padres and Houston Astros visiting the Texas Rangers. Those latter two games both air on Apple TV+ and will be nationally televised. Reigning National League Cy Young winner Chris Sale (1-3, 3.97 ERA) gets the nod for the Atlanta Braves against his old team while the Boston Red Sox counter with new ace Garrett Crochet (4-2, 1.93 ERA).

Those two southpaws are among the best strikeout pitchers in baseball, with Sale’s strikeout prop line set at 7.5 (Over -125, Under -105) and Crochet’s at 6.5 (Over -165, Under +125) at DraftKings Sportsbook. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, projects an Under finish for Sale at 7.4, and has that rated as a 3-star play, and it has not yet rated Crochet’s strikeouts prop. 

The model has quite a few strikeout props it prefers to Sale’s for Friday’s 15-game slate, with one pitcher coming in at 5 stars, one at 4.5 stars and more at 4 stars. Here are the best MLB strikeout props for Friday: 

Andre Pallante Over 2.5 strikeouts (-156) vs. Royals (7:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.1 strikeouts

Pallante shifted to a full-time starter role last year and had a solid 2024 campaign with a 3.78 ERA across 121.1 innings, but the 26-year-old right-hander is not known for his strikeouts, evidenced by both a career 6.3 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched, as well as his 2.5 strikeouts prop against the Royals. The Royals are the second-hardest team to strike out this year, but Pallante has pitched at least six innings in four of his last six outings, and he struck out at least four in three of those four six-inning starts. He’s also coming off a season-high seven strikeouts in 7.1 innings against the Washington Nationals

Lance McCullers Jr. Over 4.5 strikeouts (+121) vs. Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars

Model projection: 5.0 strikeouts

McCullers returned to the mound for the first time since Houston’s 2022 World Series run earlier this month, and he’s pitched just four total innings, including recording only one out and getting tagged for seven earned runs in his last start against the Cincinnati Reds. The model expects McCullers to work deeper this game and to go Over his 4.5 strikeouts prop line, which comes in at plus money. McCullers has been a great strikeout pitcher in his career with a 10.0 strikeouts per 9 line over eight MLB seasons, and the Rangers struck out nine times against Hunter Brown on Thursday. 

Stephen Kolek Over 4.5 strikeouts (+125) vs. Mariners (9:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts

The Mariners struggled mightily with strikeouts over the last two years, and while they have gotten better in that department this season, they have the 11th-most strikeouts in baseball entering Friday and struck out a whopping 12.7 times per game in a series loss to the Yankees earlier this week, and they’ve struck out at least 10 times in five of their last six games. Kolek has pitched just twice this year but he’s coming off a complete game shutout against the lowly Colorado Rockies, where he struck out seven in a 21-0 blowout. Kolek has a career 7.4 strikeouts per 9 line, but with a line of 4.5 and facing a Seattle team that has struggled of late in that department, the model is taking the Over at plus money. 

JP Sears Over 3.5 strikeouts (-164) vs. Giants (10:15 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts

Sears has had a great year for the A’s thus far, allowing at most three earned runs across his eight starts thus far. More of a crafty lefty than overpowering, Sears’ strikeouts prop line is just 3.5, and the model is taking the Over with a projection of 4.7 Ks. The Giants have been a surprise team this year at 25-19, but they do strikeout quite a bit as they enter Friday with the seventh-most strikeouts in the game. Sears has just six strikeouts in two starts this month, but he has three seven-strikeout performances to his name already this year. 

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