The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder are the only second-round teams playing a Game 7, and although there have only been three Game 7 contests in the 2025 NBA playoffs, the Nuggets have been involved in two of them. This time, the Nuggets will visit the Oklahoma City Thunder (-8.5, 213.5) on Sunday for a 3:30 p.m. ET start. This is an exciting matchup for fans of NBA betting on star players in NBA player props with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the favorite to win this year’s NBA MVP Award, going up against Nikola Jokic, a three-time NBA MVP winner, in a winner-take-all Game 7. Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic contribute in a variety of categories, so should you include either of their points, rebounds, assists or combined stats from betting apps in Sunday NBA props? These two superstars could also be a popular piece of a Thunder vs. Nuggets same-game parlay.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 assists (+115)
Jokic averaged 10.2 assists per game this season, the second-most in the NBA, and although he’s failed to record more than eight assists in a game this series, he did have a series-high eight assists in a Game 6 win-or-go-home scenario for the Nuggets. Denver remains in the must-win scenario, and Jokic will likely play nearly every minute in this contest. He averaged a triple-double this season as he’s not a superstar solely focused on scoring. His facilitation will be key to Denver’s chances of pulling off the upset and he’s yet to record a triple-double this series, which may motivate him a little more to do so on Sunday.
The model projects Jokic for 9.1 assists on Sunday and loves the value in getting this at plus-money odds. bet365 is currently offering the best odds at +115.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 points (-114)
He’s gone Over this total in four of six games this series, including in each of the last two contests. Gilgeous-Alexander led the NBA in scoring at 32.7 points per game this season. He’s scored more than 30 points in all three games against the Nuggets in Oklahoma City this series and had a 40-point performance at home against Denver during the regular season.
To say Gilgeous-Alexander is vital to everything the Thunder do offensively would be a massive understatement. Even though every team in the league knows this, they’ve rarely been able to contain the 26-year-old superstar. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 33.4 ppg at home this season and in a must-win, the model projects a huge usage and performance with 34.1 points on Sunday. Most sportsbooks have already moved his total points to 31.5 with more juice on the favorite, but you can still get SGA Over 30.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook at -114 odds.
Chet Holmgren Over 14.5 points (-120)
Holmgren is coming off one of his best games of the series with 19 points, his most of the series, and 11 rebounds in Game 6. Holmgren has scored at least 15 points in three of the last five games of the series, with a 14-point game in there to finish just below this number, as he’s averaging 14.3 points over 31.2 minutes per game this series. Holmgren averaged fewer points at home (13.8) than on the road this season (14.4) this season, but that’s largely because of how dominant the Thunder have been at home. The Nuggets for a Game 7 is a significantly tougher task than your average home contest, so Holmgren is almost guaranteed to play more than his 26 minutes he averaged at home during the season. BetMGM is offering the best odds at -120.
“Chet averaged over 30 minutes on the road vs. just 26 at home and is averaging over 31 in this series,” Oh said. “When he plays over 30 minutes, the Over is 12-1 this season (7-0 when he plays 31-33 minutes), and the SportsLine model is projecting him for 32 minutes.”
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