Orioles fire Brandon Hyde: Any hope for a turnaround in Baltimore? There are reasons for optimism

In the wake of the Orioles firing manager Brandon Hyde, a few thoughts come to mind. Foremost: Nah, the disappointment to this point in the season is not wholly Hyde’s fault. Still, sometimes a new voice can help spark a turnaround, and that — in addition to making a move so the fans can see the front office is trying to fix something — would be the impetus for Mike Elias and his front office’s firing. 

We’ve seen it happen before. In 2022, the Phillies fired Joe Girardi after a 22-29 start and they ended up in the World Series with Rob Thomson at the helm. It’s an extreme example, obviously, but that’s the road map here. Can the Orioles make a similar run? Let’s see if we can look with orange-colored glasses here and find a way back to contention. 

They certainly have the talent. This is a very similar group to the team that won 101 games in 2023 and 91 last season. We also need to keep in mind that in the era with three wild cards, they haven’t yet dug themselves too deep a hole. They are close, though. Five different teams, including last season’s Astros, were 22-28 through 50 games and still won their division. The 2005 Astros started 18-32 and ended up in the World Series. The 2019 Nationals were 19-31 and won the World Series. 

These Orioles are 15-28, so again, though the hole isn’t yet too deep, it’s awfully close. The turnaround needs to start immediately. 

It needs to start with the offense, too, which has been atrocious. 

In 2023, the Orioles were seventh in runs scored. In 2024, they were fourth. This season, entering Saturday, they are 25th. They did lose Anthony Santander and his 44 home runs to free agency, but otherwise, it’s the same personnel. The issues start at the top. Gunnar Henderson is much better than he’s been hitting, even if he hasn’t been bad. Adley Rutschman enters Saturday hitting .214 with a 90 OPS+. Jordan Westburg, a breakout All-Star last year, is hitting .217 with an 88 OPS+. We could go down the line, but the basic reality is the hitters aren’t playing to their talent level. 

The silver lining, of course, is that this means a big improvement is possible. It isn’t difficult to foresee Henderson morphing back into his MVP-caliber self, Rutschman hitting like a beast again, Westburg returning to All-Star form and others filling in the gaps (there have been good signs from Jackson Holliday while Ryan O’Hearn is having a good year, to name two examples). 

From a similar perspective, the Orioles’ bullpen ranks 26th in the majors with a 4.96 ERA. Relievers by nature are volatile and looking at the personnel the Orioles have in the bullpen, it’s reasonable to expect things would improve. Félix Bautista was amazing in 2022-23 before needing surgery on his arm. Yennier Cano has been dominant before. Cionel Pérez has been much better than he’s pitched this season. Gregory Soto is a two-time All-Star. Bryan Baker looks great this season. 

The problem, of course, boils down to the rotation. As illustrated above, it’s pretty reasonable to believe the offense and bullpen come together and it could happen without notice. The starting pitching, though, ranks 28th in MLB with a 5.60 ERA. Only the Marlins and Rockies are worse. 

Zach Eflin is a good starting pitcher. There’s one spot. Tomoyuki Sugano has a 3.08 ERA through nine starts. That’s 40% of a good rotation. 

Kyle Bradish could return from Tommy John surgery in the second half of the season. Grayson Rodriguez could be back by the end of June if everything breaks right. 

Let’s say that Eflin-Bradish-Rodriguez-Sugano is the top four in the rotation during all of August and September. Maybe Dean Kremer starts to pitch more like it’s 2022, or even look at how he did in 2023-24 instead of what he’s been this season. Albert Suárez could also be a help once he gets healthy, too. 

There is actually a realistic road back to respectability here, but it requires a lot of optimism. And the O’s still need to piece things together in the short term while Rodriguez and Bradish continue to rehab their way back. 

The most likely outcome to the 2025 season for the Baltimore Orioles is one without the playoffs or even a winning record. It’s a big step back. There is a glimmer of hope, though, if they start playing winning baseball in the next few days. It doesn’t have to be a lost season. The chances of firing the manager becoming similar to the 2022 Phillies firing their manager are better than 0%.