A spot in the Western Conference finals is on the line when the Denver Nuggets battle the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 7 of their conference semifinal series on Sunday. Denver forced the deciding game with a 119-107 win on Thursday in Game 7. The Nuggets (50-32), the NBA champions in 2022-2023, are 2-4 on the road in the 2025 NBA playoffs. The Thunder (68-14), who last reached the conference finals in 2015-2016, are 4-1 on their home court during the playoffs.
Tipoff from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. The Thunder are 8.5-point favorites in the latest Nuggets vs. Thunder odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 213. The Thunder are -342 on the money line (risk $342 to win $100), while the Nuggets are +271 (risk $100 to win $271). Before making any Thunder vs. Nuggets picks, check out the NBA predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the conference semifinals of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 159-117 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has simulated Nuggets vs. Thunder 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Nuggets:
- Nuggets vs. Thunder spread: Oklahoma City -8.5 at DraftKings
- Nuggets vs. Thunder over/under: 213 points
- Nuggets vs. Thunder money line: Oklahoma City -342, Nuggets +271
- DEN: The Nuggets have hit the money line in 41 of their last 66 games (+14.35 units)
- OKC: The Thunder have hit the team total over in 26 of their last 38 home games (+12.05 units)
- Nuggets vs. Thunder picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Nuggets vs. Thunder streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Thunder can cover
Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been on a tear. In Thursday’s Game 6 loss at Denver, he poured in 32 points, while dishing out six assists and grabbing three rebounds. He had 31 points, seven assists, six rebounds, two blocks and two steals in a 112-105 Game 5 win on Tuesday. In 10 postseason starts, he is averaging 28.4 points, 6.6 assists, 6.2 rebounds and 1.3 steals in 36.7 minutes.
Another offensive threat for the Thunder is forward Jalen Williams. In 10 playoff games, all starts, he is averaging 19.2 points, 5.6 assists, 5.4 rebounds and 1.5 steals in 35.2 minutes. He has registered double-digit scoring in five of the first six games of the series. In a 113-104 overtime loss in Game 3 on May 9, he scored 32 points, while adding five assists and three rebounds in 43 minutes. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Nuggets can cover
Center Nikola Jokic registered his fourth consecutive double-double in the series. In 13 postseason games, all starts, he is averaging 26.7 points, 13 rebounds, 8.1 assists and 2.2 steals in 40.5 minutes. He is coming off a solid Game 6 performance in which he scored 29 points, while grabbing 14 rebounds, dishing out eight assists and making two steals. In Game 5, he poured in 44 points, while adding 15 rebounds, five assists and two steals.
Point guard Jamal Murray is coming off back-to-back 20-plus point performances. In Game 6, he scored 25 points, while adding eight rebounds and seven assists. He had 28 points, four rebounds and three assists in the Game 5 loss. In 13 playoff games, he is averaging 22.5 points, 5.5 assists, 5.2 rebounds and 1.1 steals in 41.8 minutes. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Nuggets vs. Thunder picks
SportsLine’s model has simulated Thunder vs. Nuggets 10,000 times and is leaning under the total, projecting 214 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks.
So who wins Nuggets vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread cashes in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Thunder spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
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