Free MLB home run picks, odds for May 18: Christian Walker among best bets for Sunday HR player props

After homering for a second consecutive day on Saturday, Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is up to 15 home runs on the season and tied with Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber for second in the MLB with 15 home runs behind only Shohei Ohtani (16). That’s vaunted territory with some of baseball’s best power hitters and Raleigh has earned his way into that conversation in recent years. The latest MLB home runs odds from FanDuel list Raleigh at +430 to hit another home run on Sunday against the Padres.

Meanwhile, Judge is priced at +200 on FanDuel, Ohtani is at +270 on BetMGM and Schwarber is at +360 on DraftKings. But who are the best values on Sunday to add to your MLB HR picks? With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.

The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 10-5 roll on all top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the season. The model has hit at least one MLB home run prop in seven of the last 15 days and is up 29.6 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 40 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Saturday. These top three picks can also be parlayed for +21845 odds and would pay out $1,097.25 on a $5 bet at FanDuel, where the newest FanDuel promo code is good for $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. We’ve also included three bonus picks today.

Christian Walker, Astros (+470)

After spending eight years in Arizona and building a reputation as one of the most well-rounded first-basemen in the game, Walker signed a three-year, $60 million deal to join the Astros this offseason. The veteran is off to a sluggish start, but the short porch at Minute Maid Field should eventually pay dividends and he did hit his fifth homer of the season on Friday on the road against the Rangers.

“This is a play where you are getting strong value on FanDuel as opposed to other books as his consensus line is +370,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “Walker has struggled this season at the plate, but he has seen RHPs much better than LHPs. He has all 5 of his HRs this season against RHPs.”

Riley Greene, Tigers (+450)

The former top-five pick finished with 24 home runs last season and was an all-star for the first time. However, he’s been even better in 2025, with 11 home runs over his first 44 games and a career-high .835 OPS. He’s hit a homer in two of his last three games and the model sets his line at +350, so you’re getting exceptional value at FanDuel and BetMGM with this price.

“The model loves when left-handed batters face Jose Berrios, who has allowed the most home runs in the majors since 2022 and a good amount of those to left-handed batters,” Fetner said. “Greene has 10 of his 11 HRs this season against RHPs to go along with a .963 OPS (over 400 points higher than his OPS vs. lefties).”

Brandon Lowe, Rays (+600)

Lowe provides exceptional left-handed power at a position that often lacks thunder (second base) and he still has seven home runs this season despite a career-low .638 OPS. He hit a couple of home runs in Toronto on Thursday and was on base three time against the Marlins yesterday.

“Lowe has 6 of his 7 HRs this season against RHPs and is hitting .242 against righties compared to .135 against lefties. Lowe has also been much better on the road this season with a .809 OPS compared to a .510 OPS at home,” Fetner said. “We set the line for Lowe to hit a HR at around +400.”

(BONUS PICK) Ryan O’Hearn, Orioles (+830)

The Orioles have used as a mercenary against right-handed pitching in recent seasons and he enters Sunday slashing .294/.387/.504 with seven home runs and 14 RBI. All seven of those home runs have come against right-handed pitching and he’ll face a right-hander on a warm Sunday with the wind blowing out to right field. Nationals starter Mike Soroka has given up 10 earned runs in 14 innings this season. You can get the best price on O’Hearn to hit a home run at FanDuel.

(BONUS PICK) Willy Adames, Giants (+560)

Adames set new career-highs in home runs (32), RBI (112) and stolen bases (21) last year in Milwaukee and landed himself a seven-year, $182 million contract with the Giants this offseason. He’s not hitting it quite as well as he did a season ago, but he did go yard on Tuesday in San Francisco and he will benefit from some hitter-friendly conditions on Sunday.

The wind will be blowing out at 14 mph and he’ll be facing Athletics lefty Jeffrey Springs. He’s given up six home runs already this year and all six of those homers have come against right-handed bats. There’s no FanDuel promo code required to get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 wager wins.

(BONUS PICK) Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (+600)

Freeman is the current leader in the race for the National League batting title and his 1.115 OPS is also the best in the NL. He’s also hit nine home runs this year, so seeing his MLB HR odds in the +600 range consistently presents incredible value for prospective bettors.

He’ll face Angels lefty Yusei Kikuchi on Sunday but the left-handed Freeman hasn’t been phased by lefty-vs.-lefty matchups. He has a 1.027 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. The latest BetMGM promo code CBSSPORTS is good for up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses.

Where to bet MLB props on Sunday

Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Sunday:

More MLB picks for Sunday

You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 111-57 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is 29-19 over his last 48 MLB ATS picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Sunday.