A trip to the Western Conference finals is on the line as the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder host the No. 4 seed Denver Nuggets on Sunday afternoon. In a critical Game 6, the Nuggets defended their home court and beat OKC 119-107. With the series tied 3-3, the winner of this matchup will advance to play the Minnesota Timberwolves and fight for a shot to move on to the NBA Finals. Tipoff for Game 7 is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are favored by 8 points, and the over/under is 214 points in the latest Nuggets vs. Thunder odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the conference semifinals of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 159-117 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, here are the model’s top-three picks in the Nuggets vs. Thunder SGP on Sunday. You can bet it right now at DraftKings and get $200 in Bonus Bets instantly.
Denver +8 (-110)
The Thunder had the best home record in the NBA this season at 36-6, but despite this record, eight points seems like a lot. In OKC’s Game 4 & 5 victories, the Thunder didn’t win by more than eight points, including a 112-105 at Paycom Center on May 13. Denver is 18-12-1 against the spread as the underdog and 8-4-1 ATS in the postseason.
Jamal Murray 25+ points (-175)
Murray has a crafty offensive skill set that allows him to score from any spot on the floor. The Kentucky product has tallied at least 25 points in three of his last four games against OKC. In his last contest, Murray had 25 points, seven assists, and knocked down two 3-pointers. In his career, the 28-year-old has played in six Game 7s and has scored more than 25 points in two of those past three outings.
Chet Holmgren 2+ blocks (-205)
Holmgren stands at 7-foot-1 and uses his length to be a rim protector on a consistent basis. The Gonzaga product ranks second in the 2025 postseason in blocks (23), averaging 2.3 per game. The 23-year-old has logged 2-plus blocks in seven games in the NBA playoffs, including in four games this series.
Looking for a potential +525 payout? Bet our 3-leg NBA SGP parlay at DraftKings right now, and get $200 in bonus bets instantly on a $5 bet.
Want more NBA picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s top NBA playoff best bets for Sunday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s top NBA picks from expert Larry Harstein, who’s on a sizzling 54-35 (+1006) roll on his last 89 NBA player props picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up more than 10 units.
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