The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves will begin their Western Conference Finals series on Tuesday as the Timberwolves continue their quest toward reaching their first NBA Finals in history. The Thunder will try to return to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012. This will likely be the Timberwolves’ toughest task yet, despite going against Future Hall of Famers like LeBron James and Stephen Curry over the first two rounds, as the Thunder had the NBA’s best record at 68-14. The Western Conference Finals is set to tip off from Oklahoma City on Tuesday at 8:30 p.m. ET and the Timberwolves hold a rest advantage entering Game 1, having not played since Wednesday.
Could that time off help their key players go Over on their Tuesday NBA player props when looking over options like Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert on betting apps for Tuesday NBA props bets? They could also be popular pieces of a Thunder vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay at online betting sites. You can also see how to bet the Timberwolves vs. Thunder series.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Best Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 1 NBA props:
- Chet Holmgren Over 14.5 points (-105)
- Jalen Williams Over 1.5 steals (+130)
- Donte DiVincenzo Under 2.5 assists (+140)
Chet Holmgren Over 14.5 points (-105)
Holmgren had 13 points in just 28 minutes in Game 7 as the Thunder didn’t need to over-exert their starters late in a 125-93 victory over the Nuggets on Sunday. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft scored at least 12 points in all seven games against the Nuggets and went Over this total in three of those contests while constantly being right at or Over 15 points. But Oh doesn’t expect Game 1 against the Timberwolves to be as one-sided an affair as Game 7 against Denver. That should result in Homgren playing at least 30 minutes, which generates great results for his Over this total. Holmgren is 12-1 on the Over when playing at least 30 minutes this season and Oh loves this matchup for Holmgren’s skillset. BetMGM is offering the best odds at -105, while other sportsbooks have juiced the number.
“With Minnesota’s interior defense stretched thin by Oklahoma City’s spacing and slashing, Holmgren should find plenty of clean looks and opportunities to cash this over,” Oh said. “We all remember how much Rudy Gobert, despite his defensive reputation, struggled vs. Luka and the Mavericks defending the pick and roll in last year’s Western Conference Finals. Chet (and Hartenstein) were getting a lot of alley-oops vs. Denver and could feast in that area again.”
Jalen Williams Over 1.5 steals (+130)
The model projects the Thunder forward at 1.6 steals on Monday, and Williams averaged two steals per game over the final four games against Denver. This presents a strong plus-money opportunity with both the model’s projections and Williams’ last four-game average hitting Over 1.5 steals. Williams averaged 35.6 minutes per game against Denver compared to 32.4 minutes per game during the regular season. He averaged 1.6 steals per game during the regular season as well.
Williams has at least one steal in four of five home playoff games this postseason. The Thunder averaged 10.4 steals per game, the most in the NBA this season, with Williams as a key reason why. The 24-year-old averaged two steals per game in four regular-season contests against the Timberwolves this season. bet365 is currently offering the best odds at +130.
Donte DiVincenzo Under 2.5 assists (+140)
The model projects DiVincenzo for 2.0 assists on Tuesday against a tough Thunder defense that allowed the fewest goals per game (37.6) during the regular season, which limits assist opportunities simply by allowing fewer basketball overall. The Thunder allowed just 24.1 assists per game this season, which ranked fourth in the league.
The 28-year-old has gone Over this assist total in seven of 10 games this postseason, but the Thunder’s No. 3 scoring defense possesses a more difficult challenge than the Lakers or Warriors. Some sportsbooks have already moved DiVincenzo’s assist total to 3.5 assists with the price juiced on the Under, so if you want a perceived “safer” bet, you can use those betting apps. But given the model’s projection of 2.0 assists, it views Under 2.5 assists at +140 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook as the top option.
This news was originally published on this post .
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