It’s the thick of the dead time in the NFL offseason as we prepare for the rest of OTAs, minicamp and finally roll forward to the all-encompassing training camp period of the NFL calendar. As we approach the summer, the Fantasy Football Today team has been feverishly mock drafting in just about every format Fantasy managers play. Throughout the early part of the mock draft season, Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson has been one of the first players selected overall in every format outside of SuperFlex/2QB and specifically those that award full-point PPR. After a dominant 2024 season and a career that has included some of the best Fantasy Football finishes at the receiver position both on a weekly and season-long basis, it’s easy to see why managers view Jefferson as one of the safest picks they can make. However, FFT’s Adam Aizer isn’t so sure this is the case. On a recent episode of FFT, Aizer broke down why he “wouldn’t be surprised” if Jefferson ended up being a bust at his early-first round price tag in 2025.
First, let’s break down the numbers. Jefferson finished with 103 receptions, 1,533 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns on 153 targets in 17 games in 2024. He finished WR4 per game overall. Jefferson’s calling card in Fantasy has been his ability to make big plays. Last year, he led all receivers with 28 catches of 20 or more yards and sixth in receptions of 30 or more yards. Despite this, he finished with just 10 touchdowns — low among the top receivers overall.
Jefferson’s touchdown total in each season of his career: 7, 10, 8, 5 and 10 TDs in 16, 17, 17, 10 and 17.
One of the key issues for Adam moving forward is the drop in targets per route run once tight end T.J. Hockenson returned to the lineup. In the first seven games of the 2024 season when Hockenson was out, Jefferson racked up 646 yards and five touchdowns on 60 targets. Over the last 10 games with Hockenson on the field, Jefferson racked up 62 receptions, 887 yards and just five touchdowns on 94 targets. His target share dropped, his target per route run dropps and Hockenson was on pace for a 105-target season in those 10 games.
Want more FFT? Check out the full podcast episode where Jamey, Dave and Heath break down some of their boldest calls for the 2025 season in “I wouldn’t be surprised if” statements on players like Tre Harris and more.
Dave argued one of the main reasons Adam can make the case against Jefferson as one of the first players selected in Fantasy is the loss of Sam Darnold and the uncertainty surrounding the current Vikings quarterback situation. Dave believes the Vikings may ask J.J. McCarthy to be more of a game manager at least to begin the 2025 season.
Jefferson averaged 18.8 Fantasy Points per game in the 10 games Hockenson played and Adam believes that would make him a bust at his current draft capital. With uncertainty at QB, question marks about how pass-heavy the Vikings will be with a second-year quarterback who didn’t play at all in 2024 and a bit of a capped upside from a touchdown standpoint, it’s easy to see why there is some skepticism about Jefferson repeating top-three numbers in 2025.
This news was originally published on this post .
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