NBA Eastern Conference finals preview: Knicks-Pacers X-factors, predictions and more

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By James L. Edwards III, Fred Katz and Shakeia Taylor

The Eastern Conference finals we all anticipated are here. Oh, wait. Is this 2000?

The Boston Celtics-Cleveland Cavaliers showdown everyone penciled in months ago isn’t happening. Instead, the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers decided to play spoilers and find themselves with an opportunity to add to a longtime rivalry.

New York is back in this spot for the first time in 25 years. The Pacers return for the second year in a row, having taken down a depleted Knicks team last season in the second round. This time, both teams are at full strength.

To break it all down, three of The Athletic’s NBA writers — Shakeia Taylor, who’s covered the Pacers this postseason; and Fred Katz and James L. Edwards III, who’ve followed the Knicks all season — got together to answer five burning questions about the series.

How would you best summarize the Knicks’ or Pacers’ second-round performances?

Taylor: The Pacers went to Cleveland and took the first two games from the top-seeded Cavaliers, and it looked like the series was theirs from there. In Game 2, Tyrese Haliburton missed a free throw but got the rebound and hit a triple to put the Pacers up one with seconds left to win the game.

While teams can only play who is in front of them, Indiana drew a Cavs team that had some health struggles. Darius Garland missed the first two games of the season with a toe injury, and Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley and forward De’Andre Hunter missed Game 2. Despite those injuries, Indiana wasn’t favored in a single contest. In Game 5, Indiana came back from a 19-point deficit to turn the game on its head. The Pacers took three games on the road en route to their second consecutive East finals appearance.

Edwards: A roller coaster is how I’d summarize the Knicks journey. The New York-Boston series was one of the weirdest I can remember in quite some time.

Boston lost not one but two 20-point leads late at home in Games 1 and 2. Boston forgot how to shoot in both contests. The Celtics led by 14-plus points in every game except Game 6. The Knicks, despite all of that, had a 3-1 series lead after four games.

In Game 5, Luke Kornet turned into prime Dikembe Mutombo, helping Boston offset the loss of NBA ironman Jayson Tatum, who tore his Achilles days earlier.

New York, in Game 6, did what it hadn’t done all postseason, which was completely obliterate its opponent. Mitchell Robinson became prime Shaq.

The Knicks played about six flawless quarters of basketball out of 24, and four of those were in the final game. Yet, not only did New York win the series, but also it won it with a game to spare. The Knicks finally clinched a series on their home floor after not doing so in decades.

Did I miss anything?

New York rose to the occasion, finding a way to do what many people, including myself and Fred, said they couldn’t.

Katz: The Knicks of today are unlike the group that played during the regular season.

The first-round defeat of the Detroit Pistons was a rock fight that hardened New York, six ugly games against a team that thrives in chaos. The Pistons maul you. They set screens. They fight. By the end of that series, it was almost as if Detroit transferred its identity to the Knicks, who emerged grittier than ever.

By Round 2, the Knicks fought. They fell down 20 points during each of the first two games against Boston, then won both of them. The Celtics roared to a 14-point lead in Game 4, when they could have tied the series at two games apiece, but the Knicks mounted another comeback that evening, too.

With the Eastern Conference finals approaching, it’s difficult to pin the Knicks as anything other than tough — physically and mentally. They exchange punches with teams who want to box, and they throttle back from deep deficits when no one else expects it.

Josh Hart talks with Tom Thibodeau during Game 5 of the Knicks-Celtics series. Boston would win, but New York would close things out in the next game. (Brian Fluharty / Getty Images)

What has to happen for the team you cover to win the series?

Taylor: Indiana has to play its own game. Its offense is about playing uptempo and sharing the ball. In the only loss against Cleveland, Cavs coach Kenny Atkinson made an in-game adjustment to a 3-2 zone defense with Mobley at the top of the key, which slowed the Pacers down and stalled their offense. In games where Indiana gets to play fast, it has a much better chance at winning. The Pacers call it the “wear-down effect.”

Edwards: The Knicks can’t decide that they only want to communicate sometimes. They can’t decide that they want to defend every two or three games. New York has told on itself a few times throughout this postseason, most notably in Game 6 against Boston. The Knicks can defend and communicate at a championship level. They just decide that they don’t have to do it consistently for some reason.

Indiana, as Shakeia said, plays fast, but it’s not just that. The Pacers also don’t make many mistakes on offense. From Jan. 1 until the end of the regular season, Indiana was one of two teams to rank in the top 10 in pace (ninth), assist-to-turnover ratio (first) and true shooting percentage (eighth). The other team was the Oklahoma City Thunder.

New York can be good in transition, but for the most part, it hasn’t done it well enough consistently, even dating to the start of the regular season. The Knicks have to be tied together defensively with a consistency that they haven’t shown before.

Katz: The Knicks’ starters need to hold their own against the Pacers’ starters.

At times, such as during the second half of Game 4 or all of Game 6 against Boston, the Knicks’ first unit has dominated. In other moments, it has struggled. New York’s starting lineup, which played more than any other unit during the regular season, was a net negative after Christmas.

The Pacers are on the other side of the spectrum.

Indiana’s first unit smacked opponents by 12.2 points per 100 possessions during the regular season, according to Cleaning the Glass. It’s been even better in the playoffs.

All five first-string Pacers (Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner) complement one another. Turner guards the rim and jacks 3-pointers. Nembhard takes on the opponent’s highest-usage player and can run the offense.

Chances are, he will man Jalen Brunson to start the series, though Nesmith will receive time on the All-Star point guard, as well. Nesmith is large, physical and hasn’t missed a corner 3 in two years. (Please don’t fact-check that.) Siakam would make All-NBA if they added a fourth team. And Haliburton is the fastest-moving low-turnover point guard of his generation.

The Knicks are loaded with talent, and they’ve proved that a large deficit to begin a game doesn’t mean a surefire loss is on the way. If they can neutralize Indiana’s first unit, they stand a much better chance to move onto the finals.

What should the team you cover be most worried about?

Taylor: Rebounding and second-chance points. 

Indiana hasn’t been very effective on the glass in the postseason, and it’s been something the Pacers have pointed to throughout the playoffs as a part of their game that needs cleaning up. They are last among all teams in rebounding rate, while the Knicks have grabbed 30.8 percent of their missed shot attempts. Indiana has allowed 16.2 second-chance points per game in the postseason. Losing the rebounding battle could prove detrimental for the Pacers’ hopes of getting past New York.

Edwards: The Knicks are at their best when they’re able to play fast, but I’m not sure they’ll be able to do that much in this series. With that, the half-court offense has to be creative, and players need to cut and move.

As I mentioned before, the Pacers don’t turn the ball over. One way to get out in transition is by forcing turnovers and, well, that might not happen much in this series. Another way to get out and play fast is by forcing the other team to miss, and, well, Indiana didn’t miss a ton in the regular season and has been more efficient in the playoffs.

New York, when locked in, can defend as well as any team. Will the Knicks do it enough to get the Pacers out of sorts? We’ll have to see.

Even then, to keep pace with Indiana, New York’s half-court offense has to be better than it has been for most of this postseason.

Katz: The Pacers’ incessant pick-and-roll attack should worry the Knicks.

Indiana will score in transition, especially if the Knicks fall victim to the same miscommunications they struggled with at times during the Boston series. If Indiana slays in the half court, too, then New York has a problem.

Three pass-first point guards means a trio of heady floor generals to run the offense — and the Pacers can do it in a way that scratches at the Knicks’ weaknesses.

First, let’s guess (emphasis on guess) the defensive matchups: Mikal Bridges on Haliburton, OG Anunoby on Siakam, Josh Hart on Nembhard, Brunson on Nesmith and Karl-Anthony Towns on Turner.

Haliburton and Turner would present a scary duo, able to prey on Towns’ inconsistent defensive habits. Too often, the Knicks’ center will lag back while guarding screeners on pick-and-rolls. Turner, meanwhile, is a 3-point shooter. If Towns strays from him too far, Turner can get hot from deep.

The Knicks finished just 26th this season in points allowed per possession while defending pick-and-pops, according to Second Spectrum. But this is not just about Haliburton and Turner’s lethal combination.

Siakam will confuse defenses when he screens for Haliburton, sometimes holding his picks and at other times rolling to the hoop or popping to the 3-point arc early to catch the opponent by surprise. If Bridges and Anunoby are the Knicks’ defenders in that action, New York would probably switch it.

Nembhard is an underrated facilitator, capable of facilitating, too. And he won’t miss his jumpers in the process.

Andrew Nembhard and the Pacers’ starters are thriving, but the depth is vital, too. (Ken Blaze / Imagn Images)

Who are the X-factors?

Taylor: Indiana’s main X-factor isn’t a single person but a few of them: its bench. The Pacers’ depth is one of their strengths, especially as they get deeper into a series. This is a team of guys, from No. 1 through No. 11, who share the same mentality, who run, make shots and get after hustle plays. The Indiana bench can make a massive impact on the series as Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau relies on his starters to play big minutes.

In this year’s playoffs, Indiana is averaging 35.7 points off the bench and shooting 48 percent from the field. The Pacers score by committee and had seven players average in double figures in the regular season: Siakam (20.2), Haliburton (18.6), Bennedict Mathurin (16.1), Turner (15.6), Nesmith (12.0), Obi Toppin (10.5) and Nembhard (10.0).

Mathurin, Toppin and veteran point guard T.J. McConnell (9.1 ppg) give Indiana reliable scoring off the bench, and their depth also provides defensive options.

Katz: The answer seems obvious for the Knicks: Mitchell Robinson.

If the oft-injured Robinson dominated a full season the way he did the Celtics, he would be in All-Defense and Sixth Man of the Year conversations. He took away pick-and-rolls, got into passing lanes, deterred jumpers and layups abound and switched onto (then stopped) supposedly quicker perimeter players. But the way Robinson guards — and his growing chemistry alongside Towns in the Knicks’ double-big lineup — is only part of the reason he’s the go-to answer here.

Neither Indiana nor New York turns the ball over much, but the Knicks have a chance to win the possession game because of their work on the boards, which starts with Robinson.

The Pacers don’t prioritize the offensive glass and finished the regular season in the middle of the pack in defensive rebound rate. Meanwhile, the Knicks are grabbing 39 percent of their own missed shots when Robinson is on the court during the playoffs. If that figure belonged to a team for a full season, it would break the all-time record, which tracks to 1996, when the NBA began keeping per-possession data.

It’s not just about rebounds, either. The Knicks offense after corralling offensive boards is elite, sixth in the NBA on second-chance efficiency, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Haliburton, for all his excellence, can prioritize setting up for the outlet pass over boxing out. If he ends up defending Hart by the end of a possession, watch those two once a jumper goes up. Hart crashes the boards incessantly, and if Indiana sends multiple defenders at Robinson to keep him off the glass, it could open up lanes for Hart, a loose-ball fiend.

But this starts with Robinson.

Edwards: I’m going to go with Robinson, as well. For all of the reasons Fred laid out.

And just to add more to the conversation, I’ll also toss in Towns as an X-factor. The Knicks will need to find ways to get him to put up more 3s in the half court, assuming New York won’t be able to run as much as it would like. A large chunk of Towns’ 3s this postseason have come in transition. The Knicks have struggled to generate any for their big man in a half-court setting.

On the defensive end, as previously mentioned, New York will need Towns to be consistently focused. He’s shown he can do it. Towns had some brilliant moments defensively against Boston, but he also has games where he looks out of sorts on that end. With how Haliburton and Turner play as a pick-and-pop duo, Towns has to be sharp in contesting 3s.

And even if New York switches, let’s say, with Bridges and Towns on the Haliburton-Turner actions, Haliburton is far more of a driving threat off the dribble than Tatum and Jaylen Brown — both of whom Towns defended well on an island — were in the last series. He has more wiggle as a ballhandler, is a bit quicker and doesn’t settle for jumpers like the stars in Boston tend to do. Towns, at the very least, has to pay attention to detail every single game against Indiana.

Who wins this series and why?

Taylor: Pacers in six.

The teams look about even, in my opinion, but I don’t expect it to end quickly. A longer series should favor the Pacers, and if their series against the Cavs is any indication — they won three games on the road and weren’t rattled by the noise of the Cleveland crowd — I think they have a shot to make their own history. Indiana is fast, physical and hungry, and coach Rick Carlisle’s championship experience cannot be overlooked.

Edwards: Knicks in seven.

Indiana is in the midst of the most dominating playoff run by any team still remaining, and I think that will benefit the Pacers in the first game or two. However, the Knicks are the more talented team with the best player in the series in Brunson.

Furthermore, Bridges is a good matchup for Haliburton. Anunoby is the perfect matchup for Siakam. I don’t think Nembhard will out Josh Hart Josh Hart. I just don’t trust the Pacers’ secondary guys to be good enough for long enough, assuming New York only puts up one or two defensive stinkers in this series. And, yes, you have to pencil the Knicks in for a defensive stinker or two.

Rebounding will be the difference. I have no reason to believe that Robinson will just stop dominating the glass. New York will generate extra possessions from him having his way on the offensive boards.

Katz: Knicks in seven.

Both of these teams are better than their overarching, regular-season performances. The Pacers finished the year 50-32, tightening up their defense in the process. The Knicks are tougher, grittier, healthier and more technically sound than they were for most of the first 82.

I anticipate this coming down to the wire, but even if the Pacers did pull off a Game 7 victory at Madison Square Garden last season (thanks to a historic shooting performance), it’s difficult to choose the road team in a close-out game.

(Top photo of Jalen Brunson and Pascal Siakam: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)

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