Predicting Steelers’ 2025 record with and without Aaron Rodgers: Would QB make big difference for Pittsburgh?

Late May is approaching, all 32 NFL teams are preparing for mandatory spring practice, and Aaron Rodgers remains unsigned, a month after declaring he’s “not attached to anything” regarding his football future. Yet the Pittsburgh Steelers are proceeding as if the former NFL MVP will eventually be their quarterback, hoping both publicly and privately the 41-year-old will put pen to paper.

At this point in the offseason, there’s little else for the Steelers to do. Mason Rudolph is in place as the de facto starter, despite already leaving Pittsburgh once in his career as a backup, and Rodgers lacks a formidable market coming off an ugly two-year pitstop with the New York Jets. Their marriage feels inevitable, even if the aging Rodgers is admittedly uninterested in a full-throated commitment to an entire offseason of work as his body recovers from 20 seasons on this stage.

Still, if/when the sides unite, putting Rodgers in black and gold for the 2025 campaign, are we sure the former Green Bay Packers star will make a meaningful difference as the club’s signal-caller? We took a peek at the Steelers’ entire 2025 schedule to project which games Pittsburgh might win — or lose — depending on Rodgers’ presence under center:

Want to bet on how big of a difference Rodgers would make as the Steelers’ quarterback if signed? Check out Pittsburgh’s win totals on FanDuel Sportsbook, where its over/under sits at 8.5 wins.

Is there a scenario where the Steelers are even worse without Rodgers at quarterback? Sure. No win is a guarantee in the NFL, and you can make a case that facing the Jets on the road in Week 1 and traveling to Los Angeles to play the Chargers in Week 10 would prove too tall a task for Rudolph and Co. That said, we have to give head coach Mike Tomlin some benefit of the doubt; even quarterback purgatory has yet to drag his team to a losing record over 18 seasons, and Rudolph managed to lead the team to a postseason appearance at the tail end of 2023, when both Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky faltered.

It’s clear, though, that Rodgers’ wealth of experience and remaining arm talent could boost the Steelers in a few spots. At 41, a few years removed from a serious injury, A-Rod himself is no sure thing. But it’s much easier to envision him leading a prime-time upset of, say, his old friends in Green Bay than a career No. 2 in Rudolph. Especially given the defensive support Rodgers would be set up to enjoy in Pittsburgh.

At the end of the day, the Steelers figure to be right where they’ve been for the last half-decade or so: straddling the line of playoff contention. Rodgers isn’t all that much different, on paper, from the cheap, short-term gambles that were Russell Wilson and Justin Fields in 2024. He’s seemingly got just enough in the tank, however, to move the needle from potential wild-card spoiler to first-round lock … and help Tomlin extend his historic streak of non-losing seasons.

Is that enough to justify whatever the Steelers ultimately pay — both financially and culturally — to center their 2025 campaign on a legend’s swan song? Only time will tell.